By-polls to Nagrota, Budgam seats likely with Delhi Assembly elections

ECI to issue notification shortly

Uncertainty on elections to 4 RS seats

Sanjeev Pargal
JAMMU, Dec 31: By-elections to two vacant Assembly seats in Jammu and Kashmir are likely to be announced by the Election Commission of India along with Delhi Assembly elections scheduled to be held in the beginning of February next year. However, there was uncertainty on when elections to four vacant seats of Rajya Sabha will be held in the UT as two and half months have passed since the Assembly was constituted.

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Budgam Assembly seat in Kashmir division and Nagrota Assembly segment in Jammu region are vacant in 90-member Legislature.
Chief Minister Omar Abdullah quit Budgam seat while retaining Ganderbal having won the election from both Assembly constituencies in the polls held in September-October. Nagrota seat in Jammu fell vacant after sudden demise of BJP stalwart Devender Singh Rana.
NC’s strength in the Assembly is presently 41 while the BJP has 28 MLAs. NC is the single largest party in the House followed by the BJP. Third largest party-the Congress is way behind with just six seats followed by the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) with three MLAs.
Official sources told the Excelsior that the Election Commission of India has obtained entire data pertaining to two vacant seats and is likely to announce the by-poll along with Assembly elections to Delhi. Term of current Delhi Assembly is ending on February 15, 2025 and the elections for 70-seat House are expected to be held in early February.
The by-elections will take the Assembly strength to 90 which has presently come down to 88. However, there is a provision for nomination of five MLAs by the Lieutenant Governor which hasn’t been done so far. This will take the Assembly to its full strength of 95. The nominations include two women MLAs, two Kashmiri migrants including one woman and one Pakistan occupied Jammu Kashmir (PoJK) refugee.
Meanwhile, there has been no word yet on elections to four Rajya Sabha seats from Jammu and Kashmir which are vacant since February 2021. The elections earlier couldn’t be held in absence of the Legislature. However, the new House was constituted in the middle of October and even after passage of two and half months, the Commission is yet to announce the elections.
As per the procedure, the Rajya Sabha Secretariat has to refer the vacancies to the Election Commission which has to announce the election schedule. Process for the elections is conducted by the Legislative Assembly Secretary, who acts as the Returning Officer.
The alliance of National Conference, Congress and Independents can win three out of four Rajya Sabha seats while the BJP will be safe on one seat going by numbers the major parties enjoy in the Legislative Assembly.
In 2019, PDP-BJP alliance with 54 seats (PDP 28 and BJP 26) had won three seats (two PDP and one BJP) while fourth seat had gone to Ghulam Nabi Azad, former Chief Minister of Jammu and Kashmir who was with the Congress then with the support of NC and Congress, who had 27 MLAs (NC 15 and Congress 12). Four MLAs of smaller parties and Independents had supported Azad.
As per the past practices, the Election Commission issued three notifications for Rajya Sabha elections in Jammu and Kashmir. One election is held for two seats while two separate elections are held for one seat each. If the similar practice is followed, two seats on which separate elections will be held will go to the ruling Alliance which already has 54 MLAs with it. While two seats on which one election will be held will be equally divided among NC-led Alliance and the BJP.
Last election to four seats of Rajya Sabha from Jammu and Kashmir was held in February 2015 when the then BJP-PDP alliance won three seats and NC-Congress one. Fayaz Ahmad Mir and Nazir Ahmad Laway (both PDP), Shamsher Singh Manhas (BJP) and Ghulam Nabi Azad, former Chief Minister of J&K and then in Congress were elected. BJP’s Chander Mohan Sharma had lost the election.