Brij Bhardwaj
Current success of Taliban in Afghanistan with United States of America withdrawing its troops has started ringing alarm bells in Russia, Iran and India. Will the Taliban be able to defeat the current regime and establish rule again? Will Afghanistan be pushed into civil war? Will the huge investment of several billion dollars made by India in building infrastructure in Afghanistan go waste? These questions have no easy answer.
But there is little doubt that the situation in Afghanistan is serious. Pakistan is trying to take maximum advantage of it and has pushed thousands of armed men into Afghanistan to support the Taliban. Many district headquarters’ have fallen into the hands of the Taliban, who have achieved maximum success in regions close to the border with Pakistan, particularly in Kandahar region.
The situation is serious and has forced India to evacuate its staff from its Consulate in Kandahar. Work in Consulate, however, is continuing with help of local staff. The Taliban offensive is not limited to South Afghanistan. Attacks have also been launched in North of Afghanistan, including Mazar-e-Sharief . Many troops belonging to Afghan army have surrendered or fled. This has revived memories when two decades ago the Taliban were ruling Afghanistan and had made it a centre for terrorism.
Pakistan is happy with the success of the Taliban. But many in the West, India and other countries are unhappy that the US chose to pull out its troops in such a hurry. Having spent time in Afghanistan and watched developments on ground, I am not inclined to agree with prophets of doom who are talking of fall of present Government in Afghanistan in near future. Afghan army is under stress but not close to being defeated..
Afghans need lot of support from friendly countries like United States , Russia and India to meet challenge of Taliban. There is no need to send troops to Afghanistan or any other country joining Afghan army, but support can be provided in terms of training and equipment for Afghan air force. Air power can play a decisive role in the outcome of current fighting in Afghanistan. Another factor to be considered is that in last two decades a large section of Afghan population is keen to build a modern country and are keen to avoid return of the Taliban. Women who were subjected to harsh treatment by the Taliban including barbaric practices like stoning to death, would not be happy to see their return. It should be kept in mind that large parts of Afghanistan have never reconciled to Taliban rule. It includes North region close to Uzbekistan, Shia dominated areas close to Iran and many other pockets. History of Afghanistan shows that Afghanistan has large number of tribes with their independent identity they can be made to reconcile and agree but never be cowed down by force.
Final solution for Afghanistan can only be a ceasefire and reconciliation. In its absence a civil war. India enjoys lot of goodwill in Afghanistan as it has made investment in building infrastructure. It has built hospitals, dams , universities and Parliament building. Travelling in Afghanistan I heard Indian film music being played. Locals did not understand the words but danced to its tunes. At every Afghan wedding Indian film music will be played.
Countries of region India, Russia and Iran have to join hands to find a solution for Afghan problems. It will be possible only when Pakistan is reconciled to the fact that Afghan people need independence and not use that country to get the depth it lacks. In this context important role will be played by China which also has invested in Afghanistan and is keen to exploit its natural resources. This is possible only if a modern regime is installed in Kabul. China has a lot of clout and can bring Pakistan to the negotiation table.
Solution of Afghan problem will not be found in a hurry but all those who are predicting that the Taliban will capture it soon will also be disappointed. Option is either a prolonged civil war or a reconciliation after ceasefire.
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