Anil Anand
Nearly two and a half months of closure, the number of COVID-19 positive cases touching the two lakh mark and still counting, in comes the much awaited announcement for lifting the lockdown fully or partially depending upon which part of the country you live. What is more alarming is the fact that India logged 2 lakh cases roughly 15 days after it crossed the one lakh mark. That is indicative of the speed with which the number has increased.
How does one explain the dichotomy depicted by the lifting of lockdown vis-a-vis continuously increasing number of positive cases that too at a fast pace?
Even the greatest of experts would find it hard to answer this question given structural and social complexities of India. The multiple problems are topped by the high density population and to cap it all is the whimsical mode of governance which has been acting more out of impulse and personal belief rather than a robust strategy which should have been focused primarily on the COVID-19 pandemic without winking an eyelid on the related socio-economic problems that a prolonged and unplanned lockdown could lead to.
So getting back to the dichotomous situation, the foundation of this scenario lies in the sudden declaration of the lockdown at a short notice of barely four hours and decision to lift it in the midst of fast increasing number of cases with healthcare infrastructure having already started bursting at the seams. On the face of it neither the imposition of lockdown, given the serious challenge posed by the COVID pandemic world-over, nor it’s lifting, necessitated by the economic and social factors are questionable decisions. It is the manner, the timing and implementation of these decisions which have become questionable.
The interregnum between the declaration of lockdown and its lifting in some measures has thoroughly exposed the system of governance from top to bottom. It led to immeasurable sufferings to particularly the poor and working classes termed under the circumstances as the migrant workers, and also the vast middle class. The resultant economic slump is directly proportional to the business and industrial stress that has been caused by prolonged closure.
As of today, India has become fifth worst COVID-19 affected country in the world from the 10th mark it was on couple of days back. In the process we have left behind France, one of the worst affected countries in Europe. If lifting of lockdown came as a relief to the people, but it was short-lived in view of the further descending in the list of the pandemic affected countries.
In the backdrop of this scenario it is imperative that the governments, particularly the Centre, should adopt a calibrated and all encompassing approach that covers both health and economic aspects. The opening of the system that includes industrial activity would need certain quick decisions focused on short-term confidence building measures. Long term policy measures, which seem to be the focus of the Union Government up to now, are equally important but these are no replacement to providing immediate relief.
One of the biggest challenges before the Centre and the state Governments would be create an environment whereby immediate generation of employment starts at different levels. Since a large scale migration of skilled and non-skilled workers has taken place from big cities and industrial centres to their native places in different parts of the country any policy focused on employment generation, be it through reviving the business and industrial sectors or through creation of government jobs or self-employment avenues, will have to take into account as to how these workers are attracted back.
There is an opportunity for the respective state governments where these skilled and non-skilled workers have reverted back to, to open up new avenues to use their skills. But it is a daunting task which is hard to achieve in immediate future.
However, despite opening up of the lockdown the focus under the circumstances would remain on healthcare- preventing and curative measures- to meet the COVID-19 challenge. It is an admitted and proven fact that no country howsoever developed it is can meet the challenges posed by a pandemic of this nature where the contagion virus is of unknown nature and India is no exception. A challenging task before the Governments would also be to continuously ramp up the healthcare infrastructure and at the same time focus on Research and Development of medicinal and inoculation options to fight this virus.
There are bigger challenges for the Governments but one of the unique challenges would be to follow the social norms such as maintaining social distancing and hygiene standards. “I think there are big challenges and one of the unique challenges is the density of population, particularly in the urban areas,” said Dr Soumya Swaminathan, Deputy Director-General of the World Health Organisation (WHO).
This will be a real challenge both for the Governments as well as the public. The desirable results could be achieved only through strict implementation on one hand and public cooperation on the other.
Still the high density of population with vast expanse of poor and working classes, will remain to be a tough area to deal with. The Home Ministry guidelines after lockdown-04, have shown a quantum shift from closing everything to throwing open the system in its entirety.
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