Amogh Rohmetra
JAMMU, Sept 4: Over the last three Assembly elections in 2002, 2008 and 2014, the contest has become more multi cornered than ever, with the growing tally of both BJP in Jammu and the People’s Democratic Party in Kashmir. However, nearly one in five seats (19 per cent) have stuck to the same political party during this period, despite changing Governments.
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In other words,16 seats have remained loyal to the same party despite the fact that the state saw as many as five Chief Ministers and three coalition Governments spanning across four parties.
Out of these 16 seats, eight are PDP strongholds, six National Conference, one each Congress and Communist Party of India (Marxist).
All these party strongholds, except Inderwal in Kishtwar district, are in the Kashmir region. As a result, Congress’ sole seat it had managed to retain for three consecutive elections came through former Minister GM Saroori in Inderwal. However, Saroori, who joined the Democratic Progressive Azad Party in 2022, is now set to fight as Independent, nearly three decades after he lost as Independent from the same seat by 1095 votes in 1996. This time the party has fielded Sheikh Zafarullah from the seat.
Meanwhile, the grand old party of Jammu and Kashmir, National Conference’s six strongholds are owed to regional heavyweights, who have retained their seats over three elections and in some cases more. The list begins with the seat of Kangan, where Mian Mehar Ali is set to make his debut as the fourth generation on NC ticket. His father and current MP Mian Altaf previously won the seat in 1987, 1996, 2002, 2008 and 2014. His grandfather Mian Bashir Ahmed, won the seat in 1967, 1972 and 1977. And great grandfather Mian Nizam ud Din won the same seat in 1962. The seat holds a loyal vote bank for the Mian family, especially considering the large gujjar population.
Former Minister Ali Mohammad Sagar (Khanyar) and former Speaker Mubarak Ahmad Gul (Eidgah) have held their respective seats continuously since 1996. Sagar and Gul are now seeking a fifth term from these seats in Srinagar district. Srinagar is considered a stronghold of NC and the seat of Eidgah has been with the party since 1983 continuously.
Gul’s predecessor as the Speaker of Assembly, Mohammad Akbar Lone has also held the seat of Sonawari in Bandipora since 2002. This time, his son Hilal Akbar Lone is set to fight polls. Similarly, former Minister Nazir Ahmad Khan is seeking a fourth term from the Gurez (ST reserved) having won the seat continuously since 2002.
Budgam is one seat where the National Conference has won nine out of 10 elections since 1962, barring the election of 1972. Since 2002, Aga Syed Ruhullah Mehdi (now the Srinagar MP), has held this seat and the party is yet to announce a candidate this time.
Despite NC’s dominance, it is PDP that has the maximum number of seats that the party has retained continuously since its formation. Since 2002, the party has seen an upward trajectory in its seat tally and throughout this period it has managed to win these eight seats continuously.
Not surprisingly, six of these seats are in South Kashmir, where the PDP draws its maximum support.
The most prominent candidate here is former CM Mehbooba Mufti’s daughter Iltija Mufti, who is set to fight the seat previously won by her mother (1996) and grandfather Mufti Mohammed Sayeed(1967). However, over the last three polls, it was PDP senior leader Abdul Rehman Veeri who retained this seat.
Since the last Assembly polls, PDP has undergone a massive churn and many senior party leaders deserted after it lost power in 2018. Syed Basharat Bukhari (Sangrama in Baramulla district ), Haseeb Drabu (Rajpora in Pulwama district), Javaid Hussain Beig (Baramulla), Mohamad Khalil Band (Pulwama) and Javid Mustafa Mir (Chadoora in Budgam district) were five such incumbent MLAs who left the party during this period. All of their constituencies were such that the party won them for a third consecutive election in 2014.
Mir and Band were MLAs from their seats since 2002. Meanwhile, Bukhari is set to fight again on a PDP ticket from Wagoora Kreeri, after rejoining the party.
Similarly, in Shopian and Pampore too the party maintained its dominance across three polls. While former Minister Zahoor Ahmad Mir retained the latter since 2003, in Shopian different leaders won on PDP tickets.
Meanwhile, CPI (M)’s MY Tarigami has held the red flag high in the Valley- winning the seat of Kulgam continuously since 1996.
However, the BJP has not retained any seat for these three consecutive polls, primarily owing to the party’s poor performance in 2002 elections, when it won only the seat of Nagrota. After BJP retained Nagrota twice in 2002 and 2008, then NC leader Devinder Rana, breached the constituency in 2014
One of the reasons for lack of such seats in the Jammu region is the complete reversal of fortunes. Congress which won 15 seats from the region in 2002, was reduced to five in 2014 and BJP rose from one seat in 2002 to 25 in 2014.
Notably, a lot has changed since the last Assembly polls. Political parties have broken, new parties have emerged and delimitation has altered the boundaries. All of these factors are set to play their role in the upcoming polls.
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