Dr.Sudershan Kumar
Making the headlines recently was the standoff between the People’s Liberation Army(PLA) of China and the Indian Army, the bone of contention being the Siliguri corridor also known as chicken’s neck. This long haul between the two at the Bhutan tri junction since June 7th has already entered the second month and echoes the aggressive and expansionist design of China.
This area at the trijunction of India,China and Bhutan also known as “Doklam plateau” was actually never the reason of dispute. This impasse is the result of Beijing’s bid to have access to Indian border via Bhutan. China’s unilateral action of altering the status quo at Chumbi valley is a threat not only to Bhutan but also can lead to cutting off the corridor which connects North East with rest of the country. Thus this area is strategically important for India from security point of view. This Chumbi valley is a narrow area about 50 kms from Siliguri and the width of corridor which connects North East with rest of the country is around 17 kilometers. Historically this area of Doklam belongs to Bhutan and Bhutan has served as an Indian protectorate and it is the Govt. of India’s responsibility to protect the territorial integrity of Bhutan. After getting independence on 1 October 1949 the dragon’s aggressive stance on reconstruction of the ancient silk route for trade purpose and the Chinese President’s vision to become economic super power by establishing itself as a global manufacturing hub has raised eyebrows of many Asian countries.To further substantiate this are the examples of invasion of Tibet in 1950. Chinese have always had an eye not only on Chumby valley but whole of Nepal, Bhutan and Sikkim. Time and again China has been claiming this territory as its own but every time Bhutan has summarily refuted this claim. Similarly,Tibet has an area around three fourth of Europe and when Chinese invaded Tibet, thousands of refugees from Tibet fled and reached Bhutan and adopted Bhutan’s citizenship where as another large number of them entered in India also. Since then China’s colonial instincts have been ramping up recent one being the construction of road link between Xinjiang province of China to Gwadar Port in Pakistan for export / import of goods from China to Eurasia, Europe and Middle East countries. To establish this road network Chinese have used all possible means to acquire that area. With Pakistan they forged friendship to acquire Shasgam valley as a gift. From India’s perspective , Chinese have a very dubious policy.Moreover the India’s policy by then Prime Minister of India Jawahar lal Nehru and Defence Minister Krishna Menon served nothing better. Although border skirmishes between the two armies were occurring periodically but the policy planners of that time had a callous approach under the euphoria of the famous slogan of Hindi Chini Bhai Bhai and did not anticipate Chinese aggressive designs towards India. The repercussion of this being the humiliating and crushing defeat during the 1962 war. The atrocities committed by Chinese army in that war in Arunachal Pradesh resulted into chaotic conditions. They killed thousands of people, looted their wealth and ill treated their women. Although after the war was over, they retreated back but sabotaged some strategically important areas and started claiming them as their own territory including Aksai-chin. Moving towards the Indo-China border, the line of actual control (LAC) is an effective border between India and people’s Republic of China. It traverses around 4057 kilometers along Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttrakhand, Sikkim and Arunachal Pradesh. But differences in perceptions along LAC has remained static over the years culminating into a never ending boundary dispute. Over the years, Chinese authorities are being rogue and trying to bully India through incursions at Ladakh and Arunachal Pradesh. Soft peddling approach, towards China by previous governments has emboldened them further to claim areas. We have seen glaring examples of defiant China and it’s state policy of bullying the neighbourers who do not toe to their line,whether it is in the area of South China sea or at Sikkim sector. The present stand off has resulted after Chinese Government ‘s unilateral decision to alter agreed status quo at Doklam plateau by constructing road through Bhutan territory.Pertinently Chinese Media, their think tank and other policy planners are using all sorts of tactics to put psychological pressure on Indian Government by raking up non existent issues. They have even raised the boggy of interference in Sikkim, Jammu and Kashmir etc, but the bold firm and decisive approach of present Modi Government has baffled them. As a result ,the stand off continues. In sheer desperation ,official Chinese media has started talking about waging a full scale war against India. They have even gone up to the extent of quoting the 1962 war and threatening of its repetition, without realizing that India and Indian army in 2017 is entirely different as compared to that of 1962. This was firmly conveyed to them by our Defence Minister Sh.Arun Jaitley.
The author is of the opinion that Government of India must adopt a very tough stance towards China on this issue so that a clear and stern message should go not only to China but to the whole world that a country with a population of around 1300 million and strong armed forces with vibrant economy cannot be cowed down by any of the country of the world. Further looking into the economic intent of China in India, China does not gain much by going into a full scale war with India over a piece of land which actual belongs to Bhutan . If China initiates a war, it will be a big blunder which will dampen its image in International market where dragon aspires to be world giant. More over it will badly affect the Chinese economic growth, which has slowed down and observing a lot of shocks. Besides Chinese economy and policy planners will also think twice before advising Chinese government to go for full scale war against India due to the following reasons. First, over the years the bilateral trade between India and China has gone up to 71 billion US $ out of which 41 billion US $ is in their favour. Hence, in this China is in a clear advantageous position. Second, India’s growing dominance in the world economy and its strong relations with world powers gives India edge over other countries. Even world bank has also recognized India as the fastest growing economy of the world in this decade. There fore at this juncture China cannot afford a full scale war with India. Third, Chinese President Xi Jingping has initiated mega project of OBOR where CPEC is a segment which passes through Pakistani occupied Kashmir(which is a part of India). There it has already spent 50 billion US $. Hence it will not like to take risk to go for full scale war with India
Although the present global environment is not conducive for unpredictable China to go for full scale war against yet India should not take it lightly. China will hit India only at the time which suits it. Therefore, India should be fully prepared to answer any misadventure.
(The author is former Director General DRDO & Special Secretary MOD GOI)
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