Anoop Khajuria
Phasing out fossil fuels is a mild rhetoric. Self-stake of OPEC is mellowing down a cogent Global Stocktaking thus impinging the NDCs of every country at COP28
When rains lashed Jammu and Kashmir and Punjab in early November last year, it was the beginning of the sowing season for wheat crops. Many farmers wanted to sow the seed early so that the crop would ripen before the onset of the intense heatwaves of summer. However, these rains spoiled the huge investments of farmers on seed procurements and other farm-related expenditures as it was then unlikely that a healthy plant would sprout from the seed because of heavy moisture and wet conditions of the soil due to unexpected rains.
India is facing extreme and unexpected weather conditions throughout the year so much so that the latest data released by the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) for the year 2023 is worrisome. The Northwest region of India which includes Jammu and Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh recorded 204 days of extreme weather events out of a total of 273 days. From the whole Indian perspective, the number of days experiencing extreme weather conditions is 235. The year 2023 has already been declared the warmest ever.
The signs of a changing climate amidst global warming are obvious now to the extent of threatening agriculture, flora and fauna alike. The Twenty-Eighth Session of the Conference of the Parties of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), more commonly known as COP28 has just concluded in Dubai, UAE with a mixed bag of global stocktake (GST) leaving a trail of disgruntlement of most parties. The global stocktake is a process for countries and stakeholders to see where they’re collectively making progress towards meeting the goals of the Paris Climate Change Agreement – and where they’re not. The final global stocktake text that has been adopted recognized the need for a deep, rapid, and sustained reduction in greenhouse gas emissions in-line with 1.50 C target of the Paris Agreement. But we are far from reaching this target. All countries are expected to contribute towards the reduction of greenhouse gases as per their circumstances through Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). Unabated clamors grew loud for phasing down fossil fuels and coal power to instill global norms for net-zero emissions energy systems that emit no net CO2 and potentially release no net greenhouse gases. So at the end session of COP28, the stringent term rightly used for deterring coal power was ‘phasing down’ but ironically for fossil fuels it was changed to a much-mellowed glib phrase ‘transitioning away’ laden with several conditions favorable to the self-stake of the OPEC countries. So much so that in a quandary, even this groggy step was hailed as ‘historic’ at COP28.
But time is running out with cataclysm awaiting us imminently! Investigations in Complex Systems Science have yielded assessment reports about our Earth approaching the perilous tipping points. A tipping point is a threshold, critical mass, boiling point moment that leads to sudden, dramatic, radical changes beyond which often unstoppable effect or change takes place. Scientists have already underlined five major tipping points. Those are the melting of Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, the mass die-off of warm coral reefs, the thawing of Arctic permafrost, the collapse of North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre circulations and the biodiversity loss with the mass extinction of species. The first Global Tipping Point Report was launched at COP28 on 6 December 2023.This report was led by Prof. Tim Lenton from the University of Exeter’s Global System Institute with the support of 200 researchers from over 90 organizations in 26 countries. This report is an authoritative assessment of the risks and opportunities of both negative and positive tipping points in the Earth system that can impact our societies in a big way.
‘The tipping points in the Earth system pose the threat of a magnitude never faced by humanity,’ said Tim Lenton about the report. The tipping of a climate system can trigger devastating domino effects, including the loss of the whole ecosystem and its capacity to grow staple crops, with societal impacts including mass displacement, political instability and financial collapse.
Believe it; we are crossing the Rubicon onto utter chaos. Scientists have warned if temperature rise is not contained to 1.50 C over and above the pre-industrial era, the climatic shifts can create feedback loops rippling across that can heat the planet further or alter weather patterns that can further trigger other tipping points. These include mangroves and seagrass meadows which may die in some regions if temperatures rise between 1.50 C and 20 C, and boreal forests which are the world’s leading purveyors of ecosystem services, may tip as early as 1.40 C of heating or as late as 50 C. The experts said that the systems are intrinsically interlinked which can result in tipping vicious cascades from one realm to the other. The disintegration of the Greenland ice sheet can lead to an abrupt shift in the water circulation from north to south and back in a long cycle within the Atlantic Ocean that is termed Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). This is an important current that delivers most of the heat to the Gulf Stream. It can then intensify the sea surface temperature and the air pressure of the overlying atmosphere across the equatorial Pacific Ocean what is scientifically called the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). And this is the most powerful weather pattern on this Earth. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in its latest review has reported that the tipping dangers though unclear at the moment would anytime escalate precariously owing to the increase of temperatures heating up this planet.
Coming back to our home scenario, we are all facing the brunt of climate change. The late onset of winter in 2023 saw far fewer migratory birds arriving in the Indian plains. The intense heat wave last year resulted in the shrinking of wheat production resulting in huge losses to farmers. The erratic monsoon last year set off extreme weather events resulting in disasters in the Himalayan regions and in the plains of Punjab as well.
However, our indomitable hope can prevail over all tribulations of impending doom with the right paradigm even in this nick of time. Let us foster positive tipping points such as ushering in renewable energy and resorting to electric vehicles. On the climate front, we need to stimulate innovations and spread awareness to groom a discerning society wherein denizens proudly uphold the esoteric wisdom of Gaia – that the living and nonliving components of Earth function as a single system in such a way that the living component regulates and maintains conditions to be suitable for life in entirety.
(The author is a member of Asia Pacific Group of Journalists and Broadcasters)
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