Anoop Khajuria
The inadvertent instances of escalating Extreme Weather Events have stupefied mankind with its magnitude and ferocity. The recent fury of thunderstorms and heavy rains that lashed the United Arab Emirates was one such occurrence in the recorded history of oil-rich nations that had seen such flash floods only seven decades before. Though the dust has not settled yet, big cities like Dubai are limping back to normalcy. Weather scientists are deciphering the cause of the downpour but the figures of rainfall are startling. The city of Al Ain has recorded 254 mm of rain, Dubai has recorded 145 mm, and Fujairah the UAE city situated on the eastern coast has recorded 145 mm of rain in less than 24 hours. Is it the fallout of global warming?
The average Global temperature of the earth has increased by 1.1 Degree C since 1850. But UAE has experienced an added increase of 1.5 degrees Celsius in the past 60 years. Higher temperatures cause evaporation from land, sea, and other water bodies. A warmer atmosphere has the capacity to hold more moisture. With an increase of 10 C in average temperature, the atmosphere can further hold 7- 8% more moisture. According to the weather scientists, the movement of the tropical convergence line towards the north, followed by an extension of an upper and surface air depression extending from northern India and southern Pakistan had caused clouds over the Oman Sea to move over the country.
The experts are utmost cautious in delving into a deep study of the patterns of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). It appears as a band of clouds consisting of showers and occasional thunderstorms that engulf the globe near the equator. The solid band of clouds may extend for many hundred miles and may get broken into smaller line segments.
It is this tropical convergence line that had moved towards the north evolving clouds over the Oman Sea and low-pressure areas from India, Pakistan, and the Red Sea resulting in thunderstorms and wind speeds exceeding a hundred miles per hour inundating UAE coastal line cities. But there could be more combinations playing there. Time will only reveal the exact cause but alarm bells should ring for disaster preparedness and risk reduction in our country as well.
The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted “above normal” monsoon rains at 106% of the long period average in 2024, raising hopes for the farming sector but at the same time we should learn lessons from erratic weather last year that clipped the summer harvest.
India has also been facing a gamut of new realities on extreme weather events either due to short rainfall or excessive rainfall leading to situations like the monsoon inundating southern Kerala or North Bihar, the dwindling fish catch off the Mumbai coast all due to heavier rains, and cyclones. In the north, the states like Rajasthan have cattle farmers who are facing the brunt of rising temperatures and water shortfall. In the state of Uttarakhand, forest fires are more prevalent than in the past.
India is the hot spot for rising temperatures and its immediate impact is depleting the Himalayan glaciers. Cyclones have intensified along its 7500 km coastline. Increasing droughts, floods, and landslides are a glaring testimony that Global warming due to heat-trapping greenhouse gases (GHG) on the sub-continent is resulting in recurring extreme weather events.
The month of March in 2024, for example, was the hottest March in the subcontinent since record-keeping began in 1901. It is coupled with micro-climatic zones as has happened in Jammu & Kashmir, Punjab, and Haryana where the Rabi harvest has been affected due to sudden rains and hailstorms.
Extreme weather events like in the UAE and sporadic microclimatic zones bringing unexpected seasonal changes are sure signs of climate change. Food security is the priority to be safeguarded. And it is high time that we learn from these adversaries and make good our own home before we are rattled with the magnitude and extensive foraying of the erratic weather patterns ravaging our lives and livelihood.
(The author is a member of the Asia-Pacific Group of Journalists and Broadcasters on Climate Change)
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