Coalition era has come to stay

Kalyani Shankar
Will the shrinking of the UPA and the NDA give way to a regrouping of political parties? While the past decade had seen the rule of these two fronts the future seems uncertain as their base is disturbed with disenchanted constituents looking elsewhere.
In the past two decades the coalition era has come to stay. The Congress ruled the country for the first four decades after independence because of its ability to get a majority of its own. Since the 90s, the Grand Old Party not only shrunk geographically but also in terms of its social base with the rise of the caste based and religion based parties like the SP, BSP in the nineties.
The BJP grew from a position of an untouchable to heading a 24 party alliance from 1998 to 2004. It emerged as the single largest party in three successive Lok Sabha elections in 1996, 98 and 99. Even in 2004, the Congress was ahead by only seven seats. But the Congress increased this lead significantly in 2009 much to its own surprise.
There are two main reasons for the shrinking of the national parties. Firstly, they have become weak and are bereft of strong leadership. The Congress is also facing the organizational weakness while The BJP has a leadership vacuum after Vajpayee left.
The second is the simultaneous rise of the regional and caste based parties because the national parties have not been able to fulfill the aspirations of the people.  The emergence of strong regional satraps like the SP leader Mulayam Singh, BSP chief Mayawati, AIADMK leader Jayalalithaa, Trinamool Congress leader Mamata Banerjee, BJD chief Naveen Patnaik is because they have been able to capture the imagination of the people.  They have become increasingly assertive and have broadly held on to their support base. In states like U.P, Bihar, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Maharashtra, West Bengal and Madhya Pradesh that matter, trends indicate that they may constitute a significant section of the next parliament and may become the king makers or the king. Most regional parties have had an experience of being part of the UPA or the NDA coalition and some like the DMK had been in both.
But what is worrying is that if the UPA and the NDA shrink further, it would mean the rule of a third front or fourth front or a federal front call it by whatever name you want. This may not be desirable, as the past experience has shown that they were unstable. The regional satraps bargained and blackmailed the centre without a pan national outlook to get what they wanted. Therefore it is in the interest f the Congress and the BJP to ensure that they pull up their socks and get strengthened.
The recent public spat between the BJP and JD (U) on the issue of making Gujarat chief minister Narendra Modi as the NDA’s prime ministerial candidate has sparked off speculations about the future of the NDA. The NDA had come a long way from a centre right 24- partner front in 1998 to just about a dozen constituents today.  This is not the first time the NDA is threatened as before the 2004 Lok Sabha polls the Trinamool Congress, the DMK, Biju Janata Dal, the National Conference and the LJP quit the NDA on one pretext or the other after 2002. The TDP left after the 2004 polls. Since then the NDA has been in opposition.
If the JD (U) and the BJP decide to part the BJP would find it difficult to find more allies because regional parties like the SP, BSP, BJD, and TMC who are looking for minority votes may not support the NDA. How will the NDA form the government and where will it find the allies to reach the magic number?
It was the Congress chief Sonia Gandhi who stitched up the UPA coalition led by the Congress in 2004. However, the left parties parted ways soon on the issue of Indo -US nuclear deal and have remained aloof since then. It was to the credit of Sonia Gandhi that the UPA came back to power in 2009. But the Congress has not been able to sustain with the emergence of various scams, inflation, food inflation and slide in economic growth.  One of the major things that should worry the congress is the parting of ways with some of its major allies like the TMC and the DMK. The UPA today consists of eight allies. Outside support is provided by the SP, BSP, and Rashtriya Janata Dal.  Allies like the Trinamool Congress, the DMK, Jharkhand Vikas Morcha and MIM have left the UPA in the past four years. Therefore the Congress too is looking for new allies.
Although it has a better chance of getting secular allies the common thing for a large number of regional parties is that their political battle in the States is with the Congress or allies of the Congress. For them to support the Congress or to depend on the Congress can shrink their own base in the future. There is no commonality in the regional block. All of them cannot sit on the same table at the same time. At best, some of them can.
There is still time for the Congress and the BJP to set right the things before the Lok Sabha polls. Interestingly the congress’s loss does not seem be the gain of the BJP as it has not been able capture the vacuum created by the Congress or make use of the anti congress wave so far.  Giving the country in the hands of the regional satraps who are pulling in different directions is not desirable as what is needed for India is a pan national outlook and only the national parties can provide this. (IPA)

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