Coalition experiments

Kalyani Shankar
The idea of a third front consisting of non-Congress and non-BJP parties keeps popping up now and then. It has gained focus once again in the media after the Samajwadi Party chief Mulayam Singh Yadav pointed out in a public meeting in Sangli recently that the coalition governments have come to stay and therefore a union of parties “committed to social change” in Maharashtra, Bihar and Uttar Pradesh is good.
This is not the first time Mulayam Singh Yadav had made such a statement. The Orissa chief minister Naveen Patnaik also talked about it some time ago. There were other leaders like TDP supremo Chandra Babu Naidu who floated such an idea.
While the coalition era has come to stay for the past two decades, the track record of such initiatives is far from savoury. The Janata Party government came in 1977 when all shades of political parties opposed to the Congress came together to form that government. This lasted for a few months after which the Charan Singh government propped up by the Congress came but disappeared in three months without even facing the Parliament. The next such coalition experiment was the National Front government led by VP Singh and supported by the right and the left parties in 1989. This, too, lasted about 18 months after which the Chandrasekhar government came for just a few months. It was the Congress once again which played the villain by pulling down his government. The 24 partnered BJP-led NDA came into being in 1998 but this lasted for only13 months when it was pulled own by the AIADMK chief Jayalalitha supported by the Congress. The NDA came back to power in 1999 but lost to the Congress led UPA in 2004. Since then the UPA has been ruling.
Why does the third front concept pop up now and then? When the national parties become weak yielding to the dominance of the regional parties, the third front idea surfaces. Right now both the national parties – the Congress and the BJP have shrunk and seem to have lost their national appeal. Even the left parties are fast losing their national identity confining themselves to a few pockets. After the defeat of West Bengal in 2011 and a narrow defeat in Kerala, the Left is now confined to ruling only Tripura.
Secondly, having established their respective political fiefdoms, these regional satraps aspire for a greater say in determination of national priorities and policies. Bihar wants special status, West Bengal wants more money, SP needs some financial package, and Tamil Nadu and Orissa and others have ganged up against the centre on the NCTC. They also have prime ministerial aspirations. This explains the sense of urgency in Mulayam Singh Yadav’s efforts to reach out to leaders of non-BJP, non-Congress parties.
Thirdly, the national parties have begun to depend on the regional parties and would like to remain relevant in the states piggy back riding. This is what the Congress has done in Tamil Nadu, West Bengal, Jammu and Kashmir and Maharashtra while the BJP has done it in Bihar, Karnataka, Jharkhand and other states.  Where there is such alliance it is the regional parties that grow and not the national parties.
In this confusing scenario, is a third front viable? It may not be because the conflicting egos and ambitions among the regional straps and mutual mistrust will ensure that the third front remains incoherent. Mulayam Singh Yadav or any other chief minister, who talks about a third front, has a tough task ahead. The track record of such fronts proves that they have produced weak prime ministers in the past. Also, the difference they tout of being more inclusive is questionable.
Secondly, as the Left parties are not in a position to play a pivotal role for such an initiative, at best such a grouping could be a motley cluster of regional satraps, each with his or her own political agenda. As Sitaram Yechury has said that the front is possible only by bringing in new set of policies and not just new set of politicians.
Thirdly, while it is clear that neither the Congress nor the BJP have sufficient numbers of their own in the Lok Sabha presently but they occupy enough political space to deny the viability of a non-Congress, non-BJP combine in near future. Also the survival of such a third front will depend on the mercy of Congress or the BJP, it cannot be a viable alternative.
Fourthly, forging a third front and staying at the top of it will be one of the toughest challenges the Yadav chieftain will face in his political career. The past experiments like the UNPA have already proved that it is going to be difficult. The inner contradictions within regional political players cannot be discounted.
Fifthly, the regional parties are talking of a post poll alliance. No one knows what will emerge from the Pandora’s box. One can never be sure how it would shape up finally. Is it possible for Mamata to align with a third front if the left is part of it?  Will the SP and the BSP be on the same side?  What happens to DMK and the AIADMK who cannot stand each other?  The crucial point would be who would lead this third front?
Still the country may be faced with a third front rule if the Congress and the BJP fail miserably in the elections and people should get ready for a khichdi rule which will not last long. (IPA)

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