Amit Kushari, IAS Retd.
The Assembly elections in Maharashtra and Haryana are approaching fast. Both BJP and Congress are busy finalising their seat sharing formulas with their allies. Both the states are Congress citadels where NDA had done extraordinarily well in the Lok Sabha elections of April 2014. Congress and its allies like NCP have to work very hard to retain their upper hand in these two states. Opinion polls, however, indicate that the NDA has a distinct advantage in these two states. In fact, if the alliances remain in tact NDA is likely to get 200+ seats out of 288 in Maharashtra. and 50+ seats out of 90 in Haryana — but there is a big “if'” attached to it. Many people say that after BJP’s poor showing in the by polls of UP, Bihar and Rajasthan BJP’s bargaining power has diminished due to which Shiv Sena is trying to extract its pound of flesh in Maharashtra. Many people, however, say that Modi’s huge influence on the voters cannot be judged by by election results because these are entirely guided by local issues. I donot think Modi’s magic has diminished in any way in the last 4 months — I believe it is increasing day by day. The new government is working with an incredible speed and taking many momentous and far reaching decisions and the voters should be greatly appreciating these steps. There is a slight dip in inflation also. In fact in August wholesale price inflation was only 3.7 % which is a record low. On the other hand the memory of Bala Saheb Thackeray is diminishing gradually after his death. So Shiv Sena is bargaining very hard indeed. It wants the alliance with BJP but will not part with 150 seats. This will clearly be unacceptable to the BJP. If Shiv Sena can ride on the shoulders of BJP it can hope to get a strike rate of 70%, thus winning 105 seats. If BJP contests in only 130 seats, even with a higher strike rate of 80% it will get less than 105 seats, thus making Shiv Sena the biggest party. Uddhav Thackeray can then become the Chief Minister and BJP will then have to remain subservient to Shiv Sena. So BJP has to ensure that Shiv Sena does not contest in more than 140 seats. Poll analysts are saying that if BJP goes alone, it will surely get 100+ seats and Shiv Sena may get less than 60. In that scenario the CM will be from BJP but the danger in this is that the Congress- NCP may have a slender chance of crossing the 140 mark, paving the way for a Congress comeback in spite of huge anti incumbency. So BJP is also interested in the alliance to continue. However, it goes without saying that if the Shiv Sena does not agree to come down to 140 then BJP must go alone — later on they can explore ways and means of forming the government. BJP should have learnt a lesson from what happened in Bihar. It allowed Nitish Kumar to ride on its shoulders to come near the majority mark and later on Nitish Kumar dumped the BJP. After the Lok Sabha polls, it was clear that Nitish Kumar on his own could not have done well — he was only shining in the reflected glory of the BJP. Therefore the BJP must not commit the same mistake and give any upper hand to Uddhav Thackeray in case he has to ride on BJP’s shoulders.
Congress also has similar problems with NCP. Congress has a far lower strike rate than NCP and if both have to contest on 144 seats and even if UPA wins, which is unlikely, Congress may find itself in an odd situation. Even if the combine gets 140 seats, NCP may get around 80 and Congress 60, paving the way for an NCP Chief Minister. That is why Congress is not willing to give NCP more than 130 seats.
The alliance woes of BJP and Congress is due to the struggle for the CM’s chair. The allies are friends only in the technical sense, not in the real sense. Shiv Sena would be relieved if the BJP doesn’t do too well and the Congress would be relieved if NCP does not shine too much in glory. In this confusing scenario, which reminds one of the Mahabharat war, only Modi stays in the horizon like a shining star. As the days pass it is becoming more and more apparent that Modi has the qualities of both a Raja and a Rishi — he is like a RAJARSHI as mentioned in ancient Indian texts. He took Brahmacharya at the tender age of 18 and travelled through the whole of India like a wandering monk. He takes only lemon juice and water for the nine days of Navaratra. During his USA tour also he will be only on lemon juice and water. President Obama is hosting a dinner for him on the 29th of September. If the guest sips only lemon juice, I wonder what the host will have for dinner! This may boost up Modi’s popularity further in India since Indians, both Hindus and Muslims, believe that renunciation and self denial is a big virtue. Muslims in Kashmir who do not fast in Ramzan are looked down upon in society and are called “duhilkhao” in contempt.This Kashmiri word means ‘day eater’. (The author is former Financial Commissioner J&K. Feedback to the author at 09748635185 or amitkus@hotmail.com)
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