Amit Kushari
The relationship between BJP and JDU has come under considerable strain recently over the possible/ probable declaration of Shri Narendra Modi as the PM candidate of NDA in the coming general elections. JDU is a very important ally of BJP and occupies a prominent place in the NDA with 20 seats in the LokSabha. The alliance is 17 years old and it runs the state government of Bihar also. If this alliance crumbles down, the state government of Bihar will be in peril. Nitish Kumar may lose his CMship or he may just manage to carry on with a razor thin majority with the help of some fringe elements and independents. Nitish Kumar is taking a considerable risk by sticking out his neck to forestall the advancement of Mr. Modi. We have to ponder as to why Nitish Kumar is taking this extra ordinary step, even risking his own chair.
Narendra Modi is undoubtedly a very popular leader in BJP and certainly he could be considered as a PM candidate of NDA, although Shri L. K. Advani and Shri Murali Manohar Joshi are far senior to him in age and experience. Shri Modi has an impeccable record of development in Gujrat and has won the elections there thrice. He could supercede Advani and Joshi because he is more energetic and dynamic compared to the other two who are of advanced age, being in their 80s. Possibly he could be having the backing and blessing of the RSS and VHP also.
However, the non secular image of Narendra Modi doesn’t seem to leave him, although he is trying to take many measures to remove the fears from the minds of the Muslim electorate. In spite of all his Sadbhavna yatras, he still appears to be a Muslim killer in the eyes of the Muslim masses. God knows how many ‘prayaschit’ yatras he will have to undertake to completely purge himself from this bad stigma. A lot of allegations against him could be unfounded but if a politician somehow acquires a bad stigma of being a killer (“maut ka saudagar”), it is very difficult to wash away this bad reputation. Even within the BJP there are many leaders who do not appreciate his frequent forays into the national scene like a self proclaimed PM candidate. Even his claims on development are questioned. In Gujrat all sections of the people have not progressed equally. The rich have become richer but the weaker sections continue to remain weak. The Chief Minister of Madhya Pradesh, Shri Shivraj Singh Chouhan, is also famous for the developmental work he has done in M.P. and he is also immensely popular.
In his development model even the weakest have progressed fast — but he never projects himself as a PM candidate like Mr. Modi. However, Modi is known to be extremely deft as an administrator and undoubtedly the nation may be benefitted if he sits on the PM’s chair.
When JDU forged an alliance with BJP, Shri Atal Bihari Vajpayee was the leader of NDA. He had an unchallenged reputation of being a secular minded statesman. He was loved and respected by the Indian Muslims. His work was appreciated by even Pakistani Muslims and the Kashmiri Muslims—–which was indeed a rare feat. He wanted to solve the intricate Kashmir problem within the framework of “insaniyat” and he did not insist on the Indian constitutional framework. We find many patriotic nationalist leaders but few of them can qualify to be called a statesman, understanding the pain and yearnings of the adversaries also.
Today the scenario in NDA is totally different. There is no statesman visible anywhere except, perhaps, Mr. Advani who had the moral courage to pray at Mr. Jinnah’s mazar, understanding the sentiments of Pakistanis. In UPA also there is no statesman visible after the demise of Shrimati Indira Gandhi. Mr. Nitish Kumar knows it very well that Bihar has a 17% Muslim population and these votes could be lost for JDU if he aligns himself with an NDA led by Narendra Modi. This may severely affect his winnability in elections. For similar reasons NDA may never get the support of regional parties like SP, Trinamool Congress because UP has 21% Muslim population and West Bengal has 26%. These are very big chunks of votes and one cannot rule over India without winning these big chunks. Hence, it is essential for NDA to look for a leader with a totally secular image, otherwise it can never form a government at Delhi. To get more allies from the different regions to reach the figure of 272 in Loksabha,NDA has to be led by a non controversial, statesman like person like Shri Vajpayee. Shri Nitish Kumar’s opposition to Narendra Modi has to be viewed in this context.To avail of Narendra Modi’s administrative skills, one has to first of all come to power — and that seems to be improbable in today’s India unless there is some other leader to lead the NDA. I hope the parliamentary board of BJP will be able to locate a suitable PM candidate which will enable the NDA to continue with JDU as an ally and also to rope in SP and TMC after the elections.
(The author is former Financial Commissioner, J&K. Feed back to the author at 09748635185 and amitkus@hotmail.com)
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