Congress-AAP alliance Would they, won’t they

Anil Anand
It is the season of striking political alliances. As the 2019 Lok Sabha elections are drawing nearer the politics of forging and breaking alliances to enter into new compendiums has acquired feverish pitch. But one alliance, though not arithmetically significant but could still have far reaching consequences, is the much talked about but equally elusive the one between Congress and the new kid on the Indian political block, the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP). Obviously the ground zero for the two parties is Delhi with barely seven Lok Sabha seats but politically all too significant being the hub of nation’s politics and media, and breeding ground of many political movements in the past.
Many would have us believe that former Congress leader Sajjan Kumar’s conviction and subsequent life imprisonment in a 1984- anti-Sikh riots case, has sent the AAP leadership (precisely its lone face, party supremo and Delhi chief minister, Arvind Kejriwal ) on a rethink mode on this issue.
Close on the heels of this discourse the controversial resolution “passed” by Delhi Assembly at the behest of the ruling BJP that purportedly contained a reference to withdrawing the Bharat Ratna given to former Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi linking him to 1984-riots, is much closer a call threatening the alliance talks.
It is too premature to hazard a guess on what Kejriwal thought post Sajjan Kumar’s conviction and sentencing. He is already trying to fire-fight the Rajiv Gandhi issue through former Congressperson and now AAP MLA, Alka Lamba. After all there is a big battle at hand, next general elections, and Kejriwal’s all out war against Prime Minister Narendra Modi and BJP is well known. Given this backdrop AAP has no option but to become part of the opposition unity efforts of which Congress is going to be a pivot despite certain regional satraps inimical to the idea.
There was never a doubt about AAP’s intention, till the assembly resolution on Rajiv Gandhi, on this front but Congress president Rahul Gandhi and Delhi Congress chief Ajay Maken were vehemently opposed to the idea. The premise behind Gandhi’s opposition was his belief that in the event of AAP’s base eroding, Congress would be the automatic gainer. Although the Congress had been pushed to the margin with zero seats in Delhi Assembly and losing all seven Lok Sabha seats in 2014, it goes to the credit of Maken to restore some semblance of recovery at least in galvanising the organisation to some extent.
Somehow some noticeable changes have occurred in the stance of Congress as well since then. The back channels are at work to find a common ground on making alliance a reality. The constituency within the Congress that favours such a tie-up has grown with Maken still opposed to the idea but accepting the ground realities, and Gandhi keeping is cards close to his chest. One big change is that the former Delhi Chief Minister and veteran Congress leader Sheila Dikshit has openly though guardedly supported the alliance with a rider that a final decision would depend on the “high command”. Coupled with pressure being mounted by some other political parties on Congress leadership, the back channel efforts are of course on course.
If AAP insiders are to be believed Kejriwal is too keen on joining hands with Congress to checkmate BJP in Delhi by preventing splitting of votes between the two parties. Since Congress and AAP eye the same vote bank it is feared that the splitting of vote would benefit BJP in retaining all the seven seats. Even a large section of Congress leaders that include Maken have no disagreement that the triangular contest and splitting of votes would help BJP but the party has still not been able to accept this fact openly.
A rather dichotomous situation has arisen for Congress as Dikshit is seen as pursuing a different line. Her cordiality with Kejriwal is well known. At the same time she had spurned an offer from Delhi Pradesh Congress Committee to fund her trip to France for a complicated heart surgery and instead accepted Delhi Government’s offer of assistance. The surgery successfully performed she is back to normal and even expressed willingness to replace Maken as DPCC chief in the midst of a Congress-AAP alliance talks. A big “if” before her plans is that Maken despite his offer of resignation from the post on health grounds is here to stay and could well be gearing to contest Lok Sabha elections. He is still tight-lipped on an alliance with AAP to prevent splitting of votes.
So who would bell the cat or who would make the first move? Will Maken bite the bullet and break bread with his arch rival Kejriwal or would he like to be seen as siding with Dikshit with whom he has uneasy relations? Or would Maken bow out as DPCC chief and allow someone else to take the unification move forward?
These are very pertinent questions waiting for replies. Pending replies, a beginning has also been made when recently AAP was invited, and that could not have been possible without Congress’ concurrence, to attend a meeting of the opposition which was attended by its Rajya Sabha MP Sanjay Singh. That was a significant step forward.
There are still two years to go for assembly elections in Delhi. Immediate target for the two parties is Lok Sabha poll and the need to check BJP from retaining all seven seats. For this to happen it would be necessary to check three-way splitting of votes.
In 2013 Assembly elections, the BJP bagged 31 seats and secured 33.07% vote share while the Congress got 24.55% with 8 seats. The AAP, in its debut performance got 29.49% vote and bagged 28 seats.
In 2014, in the Lok Sabha polls, the BJP swept the elections scoring 7-0. The AAP came second while the Congress stood third.
In 2015 assembly elections, the AAP swept winning 67 seats with a vote share of 54.34% while the Congress drew a blank and registered only 9.65% vote share. However, the BJP’s vote share remained more or less the same.
In the 2017 MCD polls conducted in June, Congress’ vote share rose to 21.28%, while the AAP bagged around 26%, less than half of what it got in 2015 Assembly polls.
This narrates the entire story. It has become more problematic for AAP and particularly for the Congress since many surveys conducted periodically by both the parties concur that while their vote shares could increase or decrease marginally, that of the BJP is static. Certainly, there combined vote share, as projected in the surveys, is more than that of the BJP and there lies the catch and attraction behind Congress-AAP coming together.
One likely imponderable in the way of an alliance could be in line with Kejriwal’s ambition to expand AAP base beyond Delhi. The AAP is eyeing Punjab, Haryana and Goa where it would like Congress to spare seats for them which seems a difficult proposal. A strong Congress in Punjab under the leadership of Captain Amrinder Singh has been able to check AAP in the recent Assembly elections. The bargaining chip for the AAP would be based on the fact that all its four Lok Sabha MPs in the current House are from Punjab. It is difficult to imagine that Amrinder or even his minister Navjot Singh Siddhu, who had a bad experience with AAP before joining Congress, would accept a situation whereby they share stage or split Lok Sabha seats with Kejriwal.
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