By Gyan Pathak
Indian National Congress as the major party of the opposition INDIA bloc continues facing challenges in keeping allies together. Not only desertions of the JD(U) led by Nitish Kumar in Bihar and RLD led by Jayant Chaudhary in Uttar Pradesh from the INDIA bloc, but also announcement of going solo by TMC led by Mamata Banerjee in West Bengal and AAP led by Arvind Kejriwal in Punjab, have put the Congress in a politically delicate situation.
Real-time political scenario has been fluctuating with fast changing permutations and combinations of political parties, both at national and regional level, their respective posturing on the eve of election, and also on the ground level that seems not in sync with the political posturing of both the ruling and opposition leaders. Therefore, despite perceptions for or against NDA or INDIA bloc, there remains an uncertainty of outcome, which will depend how the people will be reacting in the polling booths at the time of the Lok Sabha elections.
Ram Temple inauguration politics followed by Bharat Ratna politics were considered masterstroke of PM Narendra Modi. A political environment was created to make the people believe that BJP will have now a clear win, since people were floored by PM’s gestures. However, the fresh farmers agitation from Punjab, Haryana, and Western Uttar Pradesh shows that they did not forget their miseries under PM Narendra Modi, though their beloved leader Charan Singh was given Bharat Ratna. Farmers, even from Western Uttar Pradesh, the home region of Chaudhary Charan Singh, marched towards Delhi against PM Modi’s anti-farmers policies.
What will be the impact of RLD deserting INDIA bloc? The answer will be known only after the elections results would be out in May 2024. Presently, one thing is clear that farmers are not happy with PM Modi, and they could not be appeased when jat (a farmer community) leader and RLD chief Jayant Chaudhary was won by PM Modi through giving Bharat Ratna to his grandfather. Therefore, it would be too early to declare that RLD’s deserting INDIA bloc and joining NDA would really benefit the BJP.
Additionally, giving Bharat Ratna to MS Swaminathan, is seen by farmers and the agricultural Mandi people, as hypocrisy. There is a long standing demand of the farmers to give remunerative price for their crops, as per the Swaminathan recommendation, which is lying in dust in Modi government’s shelf. If government is not even ready to implement the Swaminathan’s recommendation, then their giving Bharat Ratna to him is hypocritical.
The way the BJP governments of Uttar Pradesh and Haryana are trying to suppress the agitating farmers movements, is attracting criticism by almost all groups of farmers. They have taken exception to spreading nails, barbed wires, and cement brick or iron barricades in the farmers’ route to Delhi. Farmers’ anger against the PM Modi’s government may escalate across the country, exposing the lies of the promises given by PM Narendra Modi, such as doubling the farmers income by 2022 while they are still struggling to get minimum support price (MSP) for their crops. Agitating farmers’ chief grievance is that Modi government did not even honour the written assurance given to them in 2021, which are yet unfulfilled. It brings the fate of the fresh Modi’s Guarantees uncertain, and the people may just believe them to be fake as the agitating farmers believe now.
RLD’s desertion in Uttar Pradesh would therefore not necessarily benefit BJP and NDA, if Congress and Samajwadi Party led by Akhilesh Yadav take it as opportunity for them. Both the parties are bogged down with seat-sharing dispute, but with exit of RLD, SP would be able to give more seats to Congress.
Karpoori Thakur was given Bharat Ratna in Bihar, and his son and JU(U) leader Nitish Kumar were won back to NDA. However, the shift has tarnished the image of Nitish Kumar, and hence he could get little benefit from it. Moreover, BJP has given clear signal by appointing two deputy chief ministers, one of who is a sworn enemy of Nitish. Ground level political shift is perceived during the Bharat Jodo Nyay Yatra of Rahul Gandhi, and INDIA bloc may take benefit of the change.
AAP has posed some difficult challenges to Congress, particularly in Punjab and Delhi. AAP and Congress will be contesting against each other in Punjab, and BJP has little presence there except in one seat (Gurudaspur) that is situated on the Himachal Pradesh border and influenced by its politics. Farmers’ agitation has put a question mark on the political fortune of BJP and NDA, even if estranged Shiromani Akali Dal returns to its fold. Latest reports say that BJP-SAD alliance talks have failed in Punjab.
Congress must note the fluid situation at the ground level, with large number of farmers, workers, unemployed youth. Scheduled Tribes, Scheduled Casts, and OBCs are nursing great grievances against the Modi government and demanding economic, social, and political justice. Such electorates, especially those who are not supporters of BJP, are desperately searching for an alternate secular democratic political force to take on BJP.
It is in this backdrop, Congress needs to have reconciliation with INDIA bloc allies on seat-sharing and other disputes based on narrow political consideration. There is no doubt that Congress is resurging, but it needs to keep the remaining allies of INDIA bloc together, and offer opposition’s joint candidates against the BJP’s on maximum number of seats. Congress leadership must keep their options open at every stage of pre-poll and post-poll alliance, and maintain good interpersonal relationship in spite of seat-sharing disputes.
INDIA bloc allies must also chalk out joint political campaigns in every state and UTs, as far as possible. Wherever, the allies are in contest with each other, they should keep it friendly contest, and must refrain from bitter attacks. They must not forget that they have pledged themselves to defeat RSS-BJP’s agenda of making India a communal Hindu state. Regional political parties have also equal responsibility of resolving seat-sharing disputes with Congress and other INDIA bloc allies in a spirit of accommodation. (IPA)
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