By Kalyani Shankar
Who will emerge victorious in Haryana’s upcoming assembly polls? Will the ruling BJP retain the state, or will the resurgent Congress seize the opportunity to win? The nation is watching as the results of the impending polls in Maharashtra, Jharkhand, Jammu, and Kashmir will shape these states’ future and significantly impact the national political landscape.
Haryana is gearing up for a diverse, multi-cornered contest with 90 seats. The main competition is between the BJP and the Congress. Still, other parties like AAP, Samajwadi Party, CPI(M),CPI and Haryana Lokhit Party are also in the field, adding diversity to the electoral dynamics.
The BJP, JJP, and Azad Samaj Party (Kanshi Ram) have allied with Dushyant Chautala as their chief ministerial candidate. At the same time, the INLD and BSP have chosen Abhay Singh Chautala as theirs.
The BJP and Congress have not declared their chief ministerial faces, but former chief minister Bhupendra Singh Hooda is leading the battle for Congress. The new BJP chief minister, Nayab Singh Saini, is leading the BJP.
Both parties are facing internal problems. In the case of the BJP, Minister Ranjit Singh Chautala and MLA Lakshman Dass Napa left the party after being denied tickets. Other prominent figures and district leaders resigned after not being considered for tickets.
During seat-sharing discussions with its coalition partner AAP, Congress leaders in Haryana, including Hooda, are willing to concede only a few seats.
The Congress, led by former chief minister Bhupendra Singh Hooda, is optimistic about returning to power after a ten-year gap. The party is strategically wooing the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) and the Samajwadi Party for an alliance. Meanwhile, Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal is facing allegations of involvement in a liquor scam.
The Haryana polls are crucial. The BJP wants a third term, while the Congress aims to regain power. Other regional parties are also vying for a share of power. In the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, the BJP won all ten seats. In 2024, it only secured five seats, with the Congress taking the other five. In the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, the BJP, lacking the majority, formed the government with the help of JD(U) and Telugu Desam.
Before 2014, the BJP was a minor player in Haryana. Only after the 2014 Lok Sabha elections the party gained momentum. In 2019, the BJP formed a government with 40 seats, just six short of the majority, Dushyant Chautala’s Jannayak Janta Party (JJP), which won ten seats, supported the BJP. However, JJP recently ended its alliance with the BJP.
In Haryana, the BJP’s vote share decreased from 58.2% in 2019 to 46.11% in 2024. This was mainly due to the farmers demanding a legal minimum support price (MSP) guarantee. In 2024, the INDIA bloc, a coalition of regional parties and Congress surpassed the BJP’s vote share.
In March, BJP replaced Chief Minister Manohar Lal Khattar with Nayab Singh Saini. The new Chief Minister has introduced welfare schemes, promised to fill government job vacancies, and aims to leverage the Jat issue. However, the BJP does not have Jat’s support. Also, Saini’s short six-month tenure has limited his impact.
The Congress is upbeat after doubling its Lok Sabha seats in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. Congress focuses on joblessness, inflation, farmer’s issues, and the controversial Agniveer scheme. The party is preparing its manifesto based on public suggestions, which includes welfare schemes like a Rs 6,000 pension for old-age people and 300 units of free electricity. The party also counts on 452,000 first-time voters and 4.09 million young voters.
Congress aims to unite the opposition votes, while the BJP seeks to divide them strategically. AAP has some influence in border areas of Haryana. Congress leader Rahul Gandhi is trying to keep the INDIA coalition intact. The AAP has agreed to fight in five seats, according to latest indications.
There are rumblings in the Congress, too. The Congress is facing factional fights. It is divided into two groups led by Hooda and Kumari Selja. The party tries to satisfy both factions, but Hooda holds more influence because of his previous role as chief minister. Turncoats and relatives of former chief ministers are in the Congress list of candidates.
The BJP is facing a tough battle in Haryana. Current polls indicate that the party may win fewer seats. BJP’s weaknesses are the absence of strong leadership at the state level and a compelling counter-narrative against the Opposition charges. Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who leads the party’s campaigns, has not addressed any election rallies yet.
The Congress must work doing away with complacency, internal conflicts, and boost organisation. The BJP faced rebellion after the candidate list was announced, and some influential people like Ranjit left the party. Too many ticket aspirants could diminish the party’s prospects.
Ultimately, the arithmetic will determine Congress’s victory. Also, the unity of the INDIA coalition is essential. If lucky, the BJP may minimise damage by securing a respectable number of seats, leading to a strong opposition Congress should avoid mistakes and take everybody along. Otherwise, it will miss a golden opportunity. (IPA
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