By Nitya Chakraborty
Bangladesh has just completed two months after the ouster of Sheikh Hasina Wazed from power on August 5 following the mass upsurge led by the students of Anti-Discrimination Front, popularly known as anti Quota movement. The interim Government led by the Nobel Laureate Dr. Muhammad Yunus took oath on August 8 with more than a dozen advisers. As of now, this interim government led by chief adviser Dr. Yunus is functioning with the same team to steer the course of the country for ensuring security and stability in a short period do that the country can go fresh elections.
A close look at the developments in this turbulent period of nearly two months after the installation of the interim government, reveals that Dr. Yunus has been able to generate some amount of confidence in his administration among the common public. In fact some quick studies of the public opinion showed that a large section of the Bangladesh population want this interim government to stay for more time to ensure law and order and stabilise economy before holding elections for a government by political parties.
As regards Dr. Yunus, he has some achievements to his credit in this short period. Foremost was his strong performance during his New York trip from September 24 to 27 to attend the UN general assembly session. He reached New York the day after the Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi left. The interim head held series of meetings with the top global leaders including US President Joe Biden and got firm assurance of economic aid and other assistance for reconstruction of Bangladesh economy. Dr. Yunus explained the Bangladesh view of the Sheikh Hasina regime and got patient hearing from the leaders. The Bangladesh media called his New York visit as Mandela moment. He went there, he talked and he conquered. India was no where nearby to contest his version. A short meeting between the Indian foreign secretary Dr. Jaishankar and the Bangladesh adviser on foreign affairs was customary in the form of exchange of views.
In terms of domestic politics, Dr. Yunus’s interim government has set up six commissions for bringing about reforms-three are most important- electoral system, administration and judiciary. Dr. Yunus will sit with the representatives of all political parties excepting Awami League on October 5 to discuss about improving the law and order situation in the country. He also talked to the Italian Prime Minister Grigori Meloni to help Bangladesh in police reforms. Accordingly, the Italian ambassador in Dhaka had talks with the Bangladesh officials early this week.
What about strategy on Sheikh Hasina? Dr. Yunus through his earlier warning to the Indian government that Hasina making political remarks on Bangladesh from Indian soil, would harm bilateral relations, has achieved his objective. Hasina has stopped talking now at the request of Indian government. And even her son Jay Wazed who used to talk almost everyday after August 5, has stopped giving public interviews. He stays in London and New York but he must have been asked by Hasina to lie low for the time being.
The net result of this is that Dr. Yunus will go slow on the demand of extradition of Sheikh Hasina. He will not needlessly embarrass India. His as also the interim government objective is to marginalise Awami League and that is being gradually achieved. All prominent Awami League leaders are either been arrested or in hiding. There are thousands of charges including murder against them. The Bangladesh Crimes Tribunal has started functioning and the legal process will start. In the present mood in the country, no Awami League leader, however dedicated he is, will start doing any organisational work.. They will lie low and the organisation will remain non functional for quite some time, though the party has still the largest support base in the country among the political parties.
With Awami League out of contention in the coming election battle whenever it is held, BNP led by Begum Zia is the only party which is advantageously placed BNP headed government twice. It has been operating on the basis of party programme and constitution. BNP has contacts with the Bangladesh army. The Party has cordial relations with both USA and China. In fact Hasina complained during her tenure that US ambassador in Dhaka frequently met BNP leaders.BNP wants early elections since it knows that it has got cadre based organisation and in terms of funds, the party is resourceful.
The BNP has a love and hate relationship with Dr. Md. Yunus. There are pro BNP advisers but till now, they have not been able to dominate the thinking of the interim government. But BNP has also to take care what the army thinks. Bangladesh army chief Walker Uz Zaman initially mentioned of 12 to 18 months for holding elections but now he is not sticking to that. He is ready to give more time to Dr. Yunus for ensuring stability.
This delay is not to the liking of BNP. BNP has been monitoring the efforts of the students group to form a political party or a front of the people who are against both Awami League and BNP. The two current advisers from the students movement Nahid Islam and Asif Mahamud are now too busy in government work. They are saying that more discussions are needed for the building of a party. There are conflicting views on the programme among the students. It is a marathon task to find out ways for building a strong viable programme based party led by the students who took part in the mass upsurge.
But if the efforts of the students front succeed that may lead to the emergence of a strong opposition against BNP. There are many groups of differing views among the students movement.. There are leftwing fringe groups, some pro-Chinese but they lack organizational muscle. In Sri Lanka, the new leftist president Anura Dissanayake worked for long to build up the National People’s Power (NPP), a coalition of 28 parties and he won the elections on September 21. His party benefitted hugely from the mass upsurge against Rajapaksa dynasty in 2022. Bangladesh situation is totally different. The Sri Lanka model can not be repeated here.
Then the Jamaat-e-Islami group is there. The ban on the party has been withdrawn along with the restrictions on its funds flow from abroad. Jamaat is in a rejuvenation mood. Its cadres are working day and night for expansion. It has an understanding with BNP but BNP does not relish Jamaat’s growing strength. Jamaat has some influence on the interim government but still that is very limited. They are the main group fanning anti-India and anti-Hindu sentiments. The interim government is allowing Jamaat to grow.
Under such situation, Dr. Yunus is trying to keep a balance between the opposing factions in the interim government.. As of now, he is the most acceptable person as interim head to both USA and China. In fact sources say that the US secretary of state Antony Blinken during his meeting in New York told Dr. Yunus to focus on bringing stability in Bangladesh, the elections can wait, it is not a priority now. Dr. Yunus is happy with this. He can exercise enormous powers during his tenure. Only on October 3, the National Board of Revenue of Bangladesh gave Dr. Yunus owned Gram Kalyan a relief of Rs. 666 crore in terms of income tax payment and this was approved by High Court. Earlier on August 4, a day before Hasina was ousted, the same High Court dismissed a writ petition filed by Gram Kalyan challenging the NRB order.
So it is advantage Dr. Muhammad Yunus as of now. India has to work out its strategy to deal with this interim government led by Dr. Muhammad Yunus. The ruling party of India BJP and its top leaders have some responsibility for the stepping up of anti-India sentiments in Bangladesh. Home Minister Amit Shah’s comment on Bangladeshi infiltrators as ‘termites’ did immense damage to India-Bangladesh relations. The anti- India groups fully exploited this arrogance of the BJP leader and even the secular and saner elements joined anti-India camp. That was the base on which the anti-Awami League movement intensified. For India, it will take time to normalise relations with Bangladesh. But the process has to start right now. It will be better if the Prime Minister allows the foreign office to draw up innovative outreach for mending relations with its once closest neighbour without any interference by PMO. (IPA
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