B L Saraf
The ugly situation which unfolded in Bangladesh, resulting in death of hundreds of the Bangladeshis and forcing Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina to flee the country, resonates in better part of the world – India included. It will be an overstatement to make an alarmist view to take that this situation will replete itself in India. But the fact remains that its after-effects will be felt rather severely in this country. Closeness of the two countries which share four thousand Kms long border – mostly porous-makes position volatile for India. No wonder, the knowledgeable political and security experts counsel a closer watch on the situation which is developing fast in our neighbourhood.
The ignominious exit of Sheikh Hasina signifies the fact prioritizing economic development at the expense of democratic values and civil liberties doesn’t pay in the final analysis. After coming to power through democratic means, Sheikh Hassina did everything a dictator does to perpetuate himself / herself in power. She put her opponents in jail without any cause and made infamous law Bangladesh Digital Security Act to stifle any dissent even on the social media, silenced the activists, prescribed serious penalties for the violation of this law. She ruthlessly suppressed the contrarian view and above all had no remorse when her Government and Awami League cadres killed hundreds of the agitating students who rose to oppose her. The ousted PM barred opponents to participate in the national election of 2024 and others held earlier thereto.
There are many vulnerable areas in India, particularly in North Eastern part, which need to be constantly monitored lest any ugly situation erupts there . Centre still grapples with the after effects of CAA law in the states of W Bengal and Assam. Though for different reasons, Kashmir is the other place which needs to be watched carefully as to how Bangla events impact political and security situation there. The recurrent terrorist attacks on our security personnel don’t suggest that durable peace has been restored in J&K. The industrial policy doesn’t seem to have pumped in large scale investment and the developmental prosperity is yet to be seen. Unemployed youth continue to struggle. The zealot “nationalists “are doing exactly the same on national TV and social media which has to be avoided at all costs.
The unprovoked murderous assault on the Hindu minority in Bangladesh is highly condemnable and must be condemned by one and all. GOI must take up this issue with the those who presently control that country. However, at the same time the Central and State Governments must do all which is at their command to see that the communal infection does not cross over to our side. Abundant caution must be had to ensure that the minorities in India are not harmed; in retaliation. Otherwise it will spell disaster here. In Kashmir everything will get derailed whatever has been put on the rails so far at the cost of sweat and blood of our brave security personnel.
In Kashmir nothing much has changed. Only that many countrymen keep on visiting Kashmir which former Finance Minister in Mufti Sayeed cabinet, in 2015 describes as performing “a national duty “and watch a commercial film on Kashmir which he says has become ” a patriotic obligation.” The ex-Minister may not be wrong when he writes “Kashmir the erstwhile symbol of assimilation and accommodation has become a metaphor for assertive integration and homogenization.”
There is feeling among general public of Jammu and Kashmir that the scene envisioned of permanent peace prevailing in the UT and economic prosperity reaching every door hasn’t unfolded even five years after Art 370 was abrogated. The separatists’ may be lying low but the ‘separatism ‘has not vanished from the Kashmir’s vocabulary. Former CM, Omar Abdullah has put it rightly that separatist space may have shrunk in Kashmir but it has not disappeared; it may squeeze at one place but gets propped up somewhere else. Everything in Jammu and Kashmir is in flux. What adds to the confusion is of giving more powers to the LG’s office, particularly, at the time when assembly elections in Jammu and Kashmir look on the cards (if GOI doesn’t develop second thoughts). It sounds ominous.
The Transaction of Business of the Government of Union Territory of Jammu and Kashmir (2nd Amendment) Rules 2024 empower LG to control the police, public order, bureaucracy and postings. The Amendment mandates LG’s approval in these matters and also grants him a final say on the proposal of grant of prosecution sanction. The LG ‘s empowerment, in this situation, automatically translates into the future Chief Minister’s disempowerment. Under these circumstances , chances of a turf war erupting between the LG and the elected CM cannot be ruled out – as we witness this drama being played out in Delhi , day in and day out. Someone has rightly said that the recent amendment carried out to further strength the Center’s hold on JK betrays its lack of confidence in the moves which were initiated after 5th August 2019.
Some important World Human Rights watchers have been raising voices against the ‘so called’ human rights violations in Kashmir. Though exaggerated, but they do resonate in many quarters across the globe. Within home quite an influential group of concerned persons -comprising former judges of the Supreme court and the High Courts, former high ranking bureaucrats, Ex-Army Generals and high ranking officers of the other forces have urged the Centre to hold Assembly elections in J&K soon as mandated by the Supreme Court. We expect some kind of positive action on the matter as the Election Commission of India (ECI) was in Srinagar to assess the situation.
It met with the representatives of the political parties and held meetings with the top administrative officers of the civil administration and those concerned with maintaining law and order. ECI told media persons, in Jammu, that election will be held as mandated by the Supreme Court. Since the process hasn’t started so far, September, therefore, looks so near that it may not be possible to hold election in the month. In any case the Assembly polls should be held well within 2024. That will provide a guarantee against any mischief which the undesirable elements in JK may be thinking to perpetrate in view of the Dhaka happenings.
(The author is former Principal District and Sessions Judge)
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