Prof. D. Mukhopadhyay
More than 15 months of ongoing military conflict between Russia and Ukraine spurred on on 24th February, 2022, has so far caused catastrophic devastation not only to both the warring nations, but has been a matter of great concern for the international community. The upcoming meeting between Dr. S Jayshankar, the Minister of External Affairs of India (EAM), and his Chinese and Russian counterparts hold great potential for advancing peace and stability in the military conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Through his comprehensive grip over diplomacy in the contemporary geopolitical volatility, it is expected that the EAM would be able to emphasize peaceful dialogue, call for a ceasefire, facilitate no-compromise on the sovereignty and integrity of any nation. As a crucial player in global diplomacy, India could play an enabling role in resolving on-going military conflict, promoting peace and geopolitical stability. In an effort to contribute to resolving the conflict, EAM is scheduled to meet with his Chinese and Russian counterparts at an ensuing diplomatic summit shortly. The meeting inter-alia, should aim to foster dialogue, de-escalation, and finding a peaceful resolution to the crisis. This write-up explores the tentative agenda for discussion during this crucial diplomatic engagement.
EAM ‘s primary focus in the meeting should underscore the significance of peaceful dialogue in resolving conflicts without further delay by stressing that both Russia and Ukraine should engage in constructive talks to find a political solution through diplomacy that respects the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine while addressing Russia’s concerns. Secondly, a critical priority for the Indian Minister ought to be calling for an immediate ceasefire between Russian and Ukrainian forces, emphasizing the need for both nations to halt hostilities and establish a foundation for peaceful negotiations. EAM may make it a point and express India’s willingness to support any multilateral initiatives aimed at achieving a cessation of hostilities. Further, to de-escalate tensions, Indians should advocate for the withdrawal of military forces from the conflict zones by proposing establishment of buffer zones and the deployment of international peacekeeping forces to ensure stability in peace and encouraging restraint with a hope to create an atmosphere conducive to productive negotiations.
Besides, taking into cognizance the unidentifiable and un-quantifiable loss of civilians affected by the conflict, the EAM should leave no stone un-turned to highlight the urgent need for humanitarian aid for the affected regions by calling upon all parties involved to ensure the safety and well-being of civilians, allowing unhindered access for humanitarian organizations to provide relief and medical assistance to those in need. Moreover, the EAM may like to stress the importance of resuming diplomatic negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, building upon past agreements such as the Minsk Protocol and the Normandy Format. He should propose the creation of an inclusive platform where all stakeholders, including the separatist factions, can engage in comprehensive talks to address the root causes of the conflict and explore viable political solutions. Further, to emphasize respect for international law and territorial integrity by both nations should get room in the meeting. It is important to mention the inviolability of international law and the principles enshrined in the United Nations Charter are the foundation of international conflict resolution. India should underline the importance of respecting the territorial integrity of Ukraine and discouraging any attempts to change borders through military force. By advocating for the principles of sovereignty and non-interference, Indian leadership is to promote stability not only in the region but globally as well. Leveraging bilateral relationships should be very important. India needs to utilize the meeting to engage in bilateral discussions with both her Chinese and Russian counterparts separately. Besides, India should seek to understand their perspectives on the conflict and explore potential avenues for their support in resolving the crisis. By leveraging India’s historical ties and diplomatic relations, she should contribute to a constructive dialogue that leads to a peaceful resolution.
Indian diplomacy should negotiate on establishing a robust monitoring mechanism to ensure the implementation of any agreements reached between Russia and Ukraine and a proximate mechanism could include international observers and peacekeeping forces from neutral countries to monitor the ceasefire, withdrawal of troops, and compliance with the negotiated terms and such a mechanism would provide transparency, build trust, and help prevent any potential violations of internal laws and terms of agreed upon negotiated terms. It is need of the hour to arrange for humanitarian aid and economic assistance for the reconstruction of the Ukraine as one of the top priorities. Recognizing the economic and infrastructural destruction caused by the conflict, India should suggest the mobilization of international assistance for the reconstruction and development of the affected regions. Further, the EAM may encourage countries to contribute to an international fund dedicated to rebuilding Ukraine’s infrastructure, revitalizing its economy, and supporting the livelihoods of affected communities. India, in turn, may offer technical expertise and financial support in areas such as agriculture, energy, and technology. Confidence-building measures are in no way a subsidiary priority.
To foster trust between Russia and Ukraine, the EAM may propose confidence-building measures that can be implemented during the negotiation process, which may include the exchange of prisoners of war, joint humanitarian initiatives, cultural exchanges, and people-to-people contacts. By promoting interactions at various levels, these measures can help rebuild relationships and lay the foundation for long-term reconciliation. Again, addressing security concerns by both parties may be encouraged through diplomatic means. India may propose the exploration of cooperative security mechanisms, such as joint military exercises, and enhanced information sharing, which may alleviate the perceived threats and reduce the chances of further escalation, allowing for a more stable security environment in the region. Engaging regional and international actors may be introduced in the meeting. Recognizing the regional and global implications of the conflict, EAM would like to stress the importance of engaging other key stakeholders’ involvement in regional organizations such as the European Union (EU) and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) etc to support the negotiation process. Additionally, EAM may further propose the convening of an international conference with the participation of major powers to provide diplomatic support and ensure a collective commitment to resolving the crisis. Building political solutions should be the ultimate goal of the ensuing meeting, as political solutions that address the underlying causes of the conflict could resolve the on-going military conflict. India should encourage both Russia and Ukraine to engage in inclusive and transparent political processes, empowering local governments and ensuring representation of all communities. By fostering a sense of inclusivity and promoting democratic principles, EAM could lay the groundwork for sustainable geopolitical stability and peace in the region. As a peace-loving nation, Indian diplomacy could leverage its goodwill and reputation to de-escalate the prolonged war. India believes that war is no solution to any political conflicts and the Indian Prime Minister is always against any aggression and war and Mr Prime Minister categorically advocated in many global summits that ‘ 21st century is not the era of war’ . Therefore, the ensuing meeting of EAM with his Chinese and Russian counterparts is an opportunity for India to capitalize on generating a long-term sustainable diplomatic dividend for India in terms of a peace-loving nation on the planet.
As the President of the G20 for the year 2023, Indian Prime Minister, Narendra Modi plays a critical role in shaping the global agenda and fostering international cooperation. The G20 is an important platform that brings together the world’s major economies to address pressing global issues and promote economic growth, prosperity and stability. The G20 Presidency could be more meaningful and significant for India if she could advance the initiative for ending the military conflict between Russia and Ukraine, as neither of the nations can afford to waste their resources for unproductive purposes and bear with the loss of precious human lives due to the ongoing war. Prime Minister Modi prioritizes efforts to stimulate global economic recovery in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic. He advocates for coordinated fiscal policies, investment in infrastructure development, and the promotion of international trade and recognizing the interconnectedness of economies, he emphasizes the importance of inclusive growth that benefits all nations and ensures no one is left behind. Besides, another key area of focus for Prime Minister Modi is sustainable development. Being a strong advocate for renewable energy, climate change mitigation, and environmental conservation as G20 President, he pushes for greater investments in clean energy technologies, the implementation of the Paris Agreement on climate change, and initiatives to address environmental challenges such as air pollution and plastic waste. But the ongoing war would definitely act as a bottleneck in achieving global interests in absence of contributions from two techno-financially strong nations who are engaged in unproductive wars .
As the President of the G20 in 2023, India has a unique opportunity to shape the global agenda and lead international efforts towards economic recovery, sustainable development, healthcare, digital transformation, and multilateral cooperation. Through this inclusive and forward-looking approach, India can foster dialogue, forge consensus, and promote actions that address global challenges while ensuring the well-being and prosperity of all nations. The presidency of the G20 offers a platform to further enhance India’s role on the world stage and contribute to a more equitable and resilient global order. Therefore, the EAM should sharpen its diplomacy and concentrate on resolving the Russia-Ukraine war as early as possible in the best interest of both war-fighting nations, promoting geopolitical peace at a global level and in the interest of India, maintaining that India is a neutal nation on the planet and never encourage any military conflicts anywhere in the globe but diplomacy and dialoguges.
Quantifying the exact loss of human life and economic resources in the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine is a complex task due to the constantly evolving nature of the conflict. However, it is evident that the war has had a devastating impact on both countries, resulting in significant loss of life and waste of economic resources that could have been directed towards developmental projects. Here are some key aspects to consider:The war between Russia and Ukraine has created a significant geopolitical imbalance, impacting regional and global security. As a global leader, India can contribute to mitigating this imbalance through diplomatic mediation, promoting multilateral engagement, balancing regional interests, providing humanitarian assistance, and strengthening international norms and institutions. By utilizing its influence and diplomatic capabilities, Indian leadership can help foster a peaceful resolution to the conflict, promote stability in the region, and prevent further geopolitical imbalancesWhile the influence of Prime Minister Modi on President Putin cannot be guaranteed, leveraging India’s diplomatic relations and global standing can create opportunities for dialogue and cooperation. The win-win strategy outlined above emphasizes the importance of dialogue, ceasefire, respect for territorial integrity, confidence-building measures, humanitarian assistance, economic cooperation, and international support. By pursuing this strategy, with the cooperation of all relevant stakeholders, there is a potential for a peaceful resolution to the arms conflict between Russia and Ukraine, benefiting both nations and fostering stability in the region.
(The author is a Bangalore-based educationist and management scientist)
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