Anil Anand
What has changed since Narendra Modi took over as Prime Minister for the third time. This time around heading, as he has described, the NDA Government?
Are the changes discernible? Do these, in any manner, reflect that the reality has dawned on Mr Modi and his BJP that despite his voluminous claim of “Ab ki Baar, 400 paar”, the saffron party has been shorn off even the simple majority falling much short of touching the magic figure of 272 in Lok Sabha?
Whether Mr Modi or his backroom boys admit or not, it is a fact that the Lok Sabha election results have rendered BJP to a minority. Whether they like it or not, it is a ground reality that for survival of Government he is heavily dependent on the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) partners.
Ever since June 4, 2024, results of Lok Sabha elections, Mr Modi has been putting up a brave face. From the day one he proclaimed a big victory to be catapulted to the Prime Minister’s seat for the third consecutive time which he termed as historic hinting at equaling the record of Pandit Jawaharlal Nehru.
It is another matter that his classification, despite his bravado to the contrary, has quietly undergone change. So, the changes are not only discernible, barring the attitude, but are reflected both in words and actions, to a great extent. But whatever is there in the name of change, it holds political significance. Its impact will be felt on the political horizon of the countries in the weeks and months to come.
The biggest discernible change is the facial expressions and the body language of both Mr Modi and his trusted aide, Home Minister Mr Amit Shah. They look in total discomfort and ill-at-ease with the “dependence on allies” on the back of their minds. This can be borne out from their public reaction to issues, inside and outside the Parliament”, which though are as acerbic in line with their now familiar style witnessed during the last decade, but certainly betray confidence.
The first reflection of a noticeable change is the mode of delivering speeches by Mr Modi. No, there is not much transformation in the tone and tenor, but certain oft-repeated words have suddenly gone missing. Both Modi and ‘Modi ki guarantee’ suddenly seems to have become a passe. Instead, the new focus is on NDA. Instead of ‘Modi ki sarkar’, it is now ‘NDA sarkar’.
In his first four speeches delivered since the Lok Sabha election results came, and the trend has picked up there after, Mr Modi mentioned the NDA 60 times. Interestingly, he has refrained from referring to himself in the third person. The ‘Modi Ki Guarantee’ has almost vanished, perhaps realizing that this did not cut any ice with the voters at the hustings. Something which was his tagline during the seven-phased high-decibel Lok Sabha election campaign, has suddenly gone missing or forgotten.
Enjoying unbridled power, not only as Prime Minister, but also in the broader Sangh Parivar, during the last decade, by dint of being head of the majority governments twice and a tendency to dominate, this is a new scenario with which he has to contend with. The reality is that the BJP is now heavily dependent on NDA allies and that Mr Modi has to keep the crutches (Telegu Desam Party chief N Chandrababu Naidu, and JD(U) chief Mr Nitish Kumar) strong and erect, to ensure survival of his Government.
The words and actions convey a lot about the real changes that have taken place. In this case the change in PM’s language can only be construed as reflection of changed political reality.
Yet another interesting aspect of the changing political reality, which the BJP strategists though aware off, can ignore at their peril, is the change in the nomenclature of the government. In the Atal Behari Vajpayee era, it used to be described as the BJP or the NDA-Government. Come 2014 and the description was transformed to Modi-government, thereby conveying supremacy of Mr Modi, which was never the case in Vajpayee-Advani era.
In 2014 and 2019 the dispensations were described as Modi-01 and Modi-02 Governments. Suddenly, the tagline in the aftermath of 2024 Lok Sabha elections has changed to NDA-03 instead of Modi-03. Quite a transformation and admission of the fact that the political firmament for BJP and Mr Modi has drastically changed.
To speak from a position of strength without caring, at times, about the niceties attached to public life, a sudden shift has been in this inimitable style of Mr Modi. Used to taking his adversaries head-on, many times on superficial issues and on ideological lines, it was surprising to see his tamed self, complaining and grumbling.
Or else how to describe his statement made on the start of the budget session of Parliament while reflecting on the “Opposition’s behaviour” during the inaugural session after the new Lok Sabha came into existence.
“Tried to silence Prime Minister for two and a half hours…..” was how he took a jibe at the opposition. No one missed the subdued tone and tenor in which he made these allegations. He carried his diatribe further, “Opposition is indulging in negative politics and misusing Parliament”, made with a choked throat.
It led the observers to describe this episode two ways. Is Mr Modi under intense pressure result of his own larger than life image painstakingly created during the last decade at a huge expense? Yes, it seemed so or else why Mr Shah instead of dictating terms in his inimitable style and lambasting the opposition, seek protection from the Speaker. It came when the PM, unlike his style, nature and past precedent, chose to intervene thrice when Leader of Opposition Mr Rahul Gandhi was firing all cylinders, targeting the Modi Government while participating in the debate on President’s address to the joint sitting of the two Houses of Parliament.
The pressure seemed to be clearly on the Modi dispensation and BJP, and the backdrop is the party rendered to a minority status. The hard hit, impact of which could be seen and felt clearly, is the BJP fairing badly, by their own standards, in Uttar Pradesh which is not only the new Hindutava laboratory but where the state government is headed by a saffron-robed chief minister Yogi Adityanath who has thrived on religious polarisation. Despite the Modi-Yogi combo, BJP lost considerable ground in the state with the net result the party being reduced to minority in Lok Sabha.
Finally, a big discernible change is that the decade long silence seems to have broken. The voices of dissent, unknown in the Modi-Shah era as the duo controlled the Government and party with a strong arm, are beginning to echo after dismal performance in Lok Sabha elections and bi-polls to seven states across the country.
All eyes are currently focused on Uttar Pradesh where intra-BJP rumblings are being heard. The contentious issue is who is responsible for below-par performance of the party in Lok Sabha elections- PM Modi, who represents Varanasi in Lok Sabha, or CM Yogi Adityanath.
Will the UP model of dissent gain currency in states such as Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Haryana where BJP performed badly? The interregnum between now and the coming instalment of assembly elections later this year in important states like Maharashtra, Haryana and Jharkhand, and the Union Territory of Jammu and Kashmir is crucial from the point of view of both Mr Modi and BJP. Will he be able to buck the trend of Lok Sabha elections and bi-polls and turn the tide in BJP’s favour?
A big question mark?
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