Col J P Singh
India-China tango is getting terrible by each passing day with China threatening to enter Kashmir and inciting people of Sikkim. China is hegemonic and expansionist in all its designs and manifestations. Chinese have never been shy of military adventures. She annexed Tibet in 1959, attacked India in 1962 and Vietnam in 1979. She is entering Chumbi Valley from where she can threaten, even cut off Northeast from the Indian mainland. Under the circumstances, it has become necessary to look at China’s past to understand its future. Historically Imperial China used its military force to defend and expand the empire. It is a known fact that whenever China was powerful, it claimed suzerainty over smaller neighbours. Like the Western countries used force to build colonies, the Chinese world order was more or less the same. Chinese strategists claim that China can be peaceful only when it is powerful and its elite advocate the ‘law of survival’ for China’s growth, which means, eliminate the weaker to become stronger. Tibet is the victim of Chinese new world order. It considers South East Asia as its backyard and tries coercive & military means to intimidate neighbours. Another power in its backyard irks her. Indian growth as China contemporary is seen as challenge to its might in Asia. Hence China uses unresolved Sino-Indian border as excuse for LAC transgressions and India’s growing clout with Western World as another excuse to browbeat it diplomatically.
President Xi-(Jin)Ping, considers himself most powerful Dragon (Jin). He sees India as potential danger in the new world order. He is shying away from the reality that Modi and Trump are more powerful world leaders because they represent two greatest and largest democracies. China is trying to contain India little realising that Modi is riding a galloping horse which can’t be stopped. Following Doklam logjam, China tried to belittle India by telling not to repeat 1962 to which Indian Defence Minister replied abruptly saying that India of 2017 is not India of 1962. This rebuttal irritated China even more. Then came the threat “a third country army could enter Kashmir at Pakistan’s request, using the same logic the Indian Army used to enter Doklam to stop the PLA from constructing a road”. In the same breath China says, “even if India were requested to defend Bhutan’s territory, this could only be limited to its established territory, not the disputed area”. First time China has accepted the fact that India is bound to defend Bhutan. While all that was happening China cautioned India of consequences of interfering in Doklam should she incite people of Sikkim to seek independence.
The ongoing Sino-Indian standoff was triggered by the PLA who started building a road in Bhutan’s territory in the first week of June. China claims Doklam as part of its Donglang region. India calls it Doka La. As far as Bhutan is concerned, Doklam is their territory. Bhutan had repeatedly protested China’s actions in Doklam and sought India’s help. This time Indian action in stopping Chinese activities is effective. Legally India is justified in doing so because it is covered under Indo-Bhutan defence treaty, strategically also it is correct because it is for own defence. But, what legality will China have in entering Kashmir? As per existing treaties between India and Pakistan, J&K is a bilateral issue, to be dealt with bilaterally without any third party intervention. Declining to intervene, US and UN have many times suggested both countries to resolve Kashmir peacefully. The people of Sikkim had themselves chosen to be part of democratic India. Since the history tends to repeat itself, despite that, the current Chinese threats need to be analysed seriously. Chinese 21st century agenda is certainly more than catches the eye. China has reason to intimidate Bhutan. It cannot surround India so long as Bhutan doesn’t break its ties with India. It is a matter of concern for China that Bhutan is the only neighbour which doesn’t have diplomatic relations with it. It cannot complete its encirclement of India unless it has full diplomatic relations with Bhutan. That calls for India standing firm with Bhutan.
There is no doubt that China is irked by the outcome of Modi-Trump summit and upset over tri-nation Naval exercise in the Indian Ocean. Rising Chinese presence in Indian Ocean has necessitated the largest naval exercise in the Bay of Bengal pointing towards joint Asia-Pacific security plans by which China feels threatened.
Historically China has been overbearing on her neighbours and hence frequent military and diplomatic show downs are inevitable. PLA has transgressed in Ladakh many times before and each time it was pushed back by the Indian Army. Under the circumstances, can India rule out Chinese entry in Kashmir for which Chinese media has sounded the bugle. Whether Siliguri corridor is the ideal place for China to cut off Indian mainland from Northeastern States or enter Kashmir to intimidate Delhi, is for China to decide and security experts to understand but for the Jammuites there is a need to deliberate upon latest Chinese thereat of entering Kashmir if asked by Pakistan.
China has a Division of PLA (12,000 soldiers) in Gilgit-Baltistan for the protection of Chinese workforce constructing Karakoram Highway. That is an illegal act. Should India petition the International Court, it will be declared as an act of aggression. Last year International Court of Justice had adjudicated in favour of Philippines that China had no historical rights in South China Sea, as claimed by Beijing. Similarly Vietnam has called Chinese bluff on the disputed Paracel and Spratly Islands in South China Sea, which China traces back to their Ming Dynasty. Experts are of the view that under the guise of CPEC, China will position more armed forces in POJK which would be a great security threat to India.
China is hardening its anti-India stand after Doklam. It is first time that Bhutan, Sikkim and Kashmir have been brought into the direct narrative. Since China is threatening to enter Kashmir and provoke Sikkim, by the same analogy India is at liberty to bring Tibet, Hong Kong and CPEC issues on the table, not done till now, and intimidate China. These issues need to be loudly spoken in the media. Let it be known that if India can stop China in Doklam, it can do so in Gilgit-Baltistan also. I expect Indian media to speak up, atleast for the TRP sake.
While the separatists and militants are up against the nation, radicalisation of Muslims is going on, security personnel are being lynched, law and order is at its worst, Amarnath Yatris are being attacked and China is trying to test waters, Pakistan can create a situation in which Chinese can enter Kashmir. Till now Indian military intervention, where ever it has been, was to stall China’s attempts to re-align boundaries. Now the need has arisen to form a strategy to fight China militarily. Army Chief’s statement that India is fully prepared for a two and a half front war is Kashmir centric. Highest level meetings on Kashmir situation and presence of Army Chief in the valley is for security of Kashmir. It guarantees no security to Jammu. On ISI initiative, to start with, Chinese Muslim Jihadists could enter J&K. In Jammu they can easily mix with Rohingyas and Bangladeshis and pose serious threat to Jammu’s peace and communal harmony. Jammuites should be wary of the added danger. While China is intimidating small country like Bhutan for opposing her might, India must galvanise its neighbors to rally around Bhutan. India should continue supporting Bhutan to tell China that history of South Asia can be re-written in our Hindi language should she like it to be rewritten.
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