Dr Sundeep K Pandita
Globally millions of people are affected by disasters, thousands are killed, physical infrastructure worth billions is damaged and economy of nations is destroyed by these unfortunate events. The Union Territory of Jammu and Kashmir is prone to many hazards and has been affected by various disasters including earthquakes, floods, landslides, snow avalanches, cloud bursts, terrorism etc. These disasters have killed thousands of people and damaged lot of physical infrastructure.
In the March issue of the Journal of the Geological Society of India, Dr. Harsh Gupta, a renowned seismologist, has dealt in detail with the ramifications of an earthquake of high magnitude in his write-up titled “If a magnitude of about 8 earthquake occurs in India today” to draw the attention on the possible consequences of such a disaster in India. This write up is based on the write-up written by Dr. Harsh Gupta to highlight the earthquake hazard in the Union Territory of Jammu and Kashmir.
In the Himalayan region six big earthquakes have struck which have devastated areas of their influence. These are Shillong (1897, 8.7magnitude, 1550 deaths), Kangra (1905, 8, 20000), Bihar -Nepa (1934, 8, 15000), Assam (1950, 8.7, 4800), Muzaffarabad (2005, 7.6, 87000) and Gorkha- Nepal (2015, 7.9, 10000). During the last 125 years 90 earthquakes (including 16 with > 7.5 magnitude, 21 with 7 – 7.5 and 53 with 6.5 to 7 magnitude) have struck the Himalayan region. Comparing the devastation and loss of human life in these earthquakes it can be interpreted that the increase in the human lives lost is consistent with the increase in the population.
The recent earthquakes of 7.8 and 7.5 magnitude that struck Turkey on 6th February 2023 killed about 58000 people in Turkey and Syria and the estimated damages are about 110 billion US$. More than ten thousand aftershocks have been recorded in the region. But a silver lining in the region is Erzin town where no deaths occurred and no buildings collapsed except minor damages in these powerful earthquakes. The local people in Erzin credit a long-standing determination not to allow constructions in violation of the country’s building codes and where ever violations of building codes are detected, these buildings are got demolished.
Jammu and Kashmir is classified as Zone IV and V in the seismotectonic map of India which represent severe and very severe intensity zones where possibility of striking high magnitude earthquakes has been highlighted by the seismologists. The recent research work published by the Geology Department, University of Jammu has highlighted two seismically active clusters representing erstwhile Doda district and Uri and Tangdhar areas of J&K (Fig). The 2005 Muzaffarabad earthquake devastated Tangdhar and Uri areas and killed about 1400 people in our part of Jammu and Kashmir and about 85000 in Pakistan and Pakistan occupied Jammu and Kashmir. Strong shaking of buildings was observed in the whole of Jammu and Kashmir and many buildings developed cracks during this earthquake.
In 2013 Doda region witnessed increased seismic activity with a main shock of 5.8 magnitude on 1st May followed by many aftershocks. Many houses developed cracks and people were panicked. Keeping in mind the impact of these earthquakes one can easily foresee the possible destruction of an earthquake of magnitude 7 or more in Jammu and Kashmir where we have poor building structures, varied topography and high population density.
We know that till date no technology has been developed which can help in predicting an earthquake well in time. But efforts are being made to develop earthquake warning systems so that people are alerted in case of an approaching destructive earthquake waves to minimize possible damage. The epicenter of an earthquake is located using a local network of seismic stations, and its magnitude is estimated within seconds using earthquake generated primary waves. The destruction is basically caused by secondary shear waves that travel slower than the primary waves. So, depending upon the distance of a location from the hypocenter of the earthquake, the destructive waves would arrive later and this time interval is useful to take up preventive measures, such as switching off the electric and gas supply, stopping of lifts and vehicular traffic etc.
In India, the Indian Institute of Technology, Roorkee has successfully tested and validated an Earthquake Early Warning System (EEWS) in Uttarakhand. The system consists of 169 seismic stations in the central seismic gap of Indian Himalaya. Three moderate earthquakes of Magnitudes 5.8, 5.4 and 5.8 occurred in Western Nepal region on November 9 and 12, 2022, and January 24, 2023 respectively. The central server issued notifications and warning alerts to the public of Uttarakhand on the mobile app, ‘Uttarakhand Bhookamp Alert’ installed by them. Such system of issuing alerts to the citizens through an EEWS can be replicated in other parts of Himalaya especially in the Jammu and Kashmir region.
Students are one of the most vulnerable community in an earthquake. It is important to educate these young people about what to do and what not to do before, during and after an earthquake. Mass awareness programmes about the earthquakes is the need of the hour to develop an earthquake resilient society. The students can be made familiar about the guidelines, fundamentals of seismology through awareness camps and practical demonstrations in schools and colleges.
The Geology Department, University of Jammu has conducted many such awareness workshops in schools of erstwhile state of Jammu and Kashmir and other parts of country under the “School Education Programme” and it was very encouraging to note the interest of the teachers and students in learning ways and means to be protected against the earthquakes. Overall, this has been a very successful initiative and needs to be perpetuated.
To keep the citizens aware about the threat of earthquakes we need to institutionalise Earthquake Safety Day as is being done in Nepal every year on 16th January. Training of students about earthquake safety, mock drills, strict implementation of building codes and deployment of Earthquake Early Warning System are the most important steps to be taken in a time bound manner to safeguard the life and physical infrastructure. There is a need to invest in preparedness and prevention rather than spending more money on relief after a disaster.
“Earthquake safe infrastructure, the basis of safe life”
(The author is Professor of Geology, Department of Geology, University of Jammu)
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