By Mriganka M Bhowmick
Election fever has begun to grip Delhi as the state prepares for its upcoming elections. Though small in size, Delhi holds significant political importance, influencing perceptions across the country. In recent years, it has drawn national attention due to the intense political rivalry between the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), alongside unprecedented controversies, such as the arrests of ministers, including Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal, by the Enforcement Directorate over alleged irregularities in the excise policy and contract awards.
AAP has strongly refuted these allegations, claiming they are a BJP ploy to damage its political base in Delhi, which served as the party’s birthplace. However, after more than a decade under AAP’s governance, anti-incumbency sentiments loom large. The party’s governance in the last five years has been marked by controversies, corruption allegations, arrests, and frequent conflicts with the Lieutenant Governor, leaving many voters with a bad impression.
The early achievements of AAP, such as improvements in education and the Mohalla Clinics in the health sector, have lost some of their lustre. Furthermore, the absence of significant infrastructure development over the past decade has disappointed many Delhiites, especially when compared to the rapid growth of neighbouring cities like Gurgaon and Noida. This has prompted voters to reminisce about the smoother governance during Sheila Dikshit’s 15-year tenure.
Recognizing this sentiment, Congress has begun to revive its political presence in Delhi, leveraging the legacy of the late Sheila Dikshit, which the party largely neglected over the past decade. This resurgence has rattled AAP.
On December 26, 2024, AAP held a high-profile press conference led by senior leader Sanjay Singh and Delhi Chief Minister Atishi. They accused the Delhi Congress unit of working at the behest of the BJP and issued a stern warning to Congress’s central leadership to act against Ajay Maken, who had referred to Arvind Kejriwal as “anti-national.” AAP further alleged that Congress leader Sandeep Dikshit’s campaign against Kejriwal in the New Delhi constituency was funded by the BJP. AAP threatened to advocate for Congress’s removal from the INDIA alliance if no action was taken.
This aggressive stance is seen as an attempt by AAP to consolidate its voter base, which may have weakened due to its alliance with Congress in the national elections. However, it seems unlikely that Congress’s central leadership will heed AAP’s demands. So, what is the reason behind AAP’s posturing?
An analysis of past election results sheds light on AAP’s strategy. Delhi voters have demonstrated a pattern of voting differently in state and national elections, often reacting to governance issues. AAP’s vote share increased from 29.5% in 2013 to 54% in 2015 and 53.7% in 2020. During the same period, Congress’s vote share plummeted from 24.5% in 2013 to 9.7% in 2015 and below 5% in 2020. AAP’s rise largely came at the expense of Congress’s voter base, while BJP maintained a consistent vote share.
In general elections, however, BJP has outperformed AAP with impressive vote shares: 54.33% in 2024, 56.7% in 2019, and 46.6% in 2014. AAP, trailing far behind, was a distant third in 2019 with just 18.10%, while Congress was second with 22.6%. In the 2024 general election, AAP increased its vote share to 34.10% in alliance with Congress, but Congress’s vote share dropped to 18.94%.
This data indicates that Congress’s votes are more likely to shift to AAP, but not vice versa. AAP’s challenge lies in retaining the Congress voters who backed it in 2024, especially since its governance has faced criticism. Additionally, the change in the Chief Minister’s face just before the election added to the turbulence.
AAP’s concerns are evident, as there is no guarantee that past voting patterns will repeat. In 2013, Delhi voters decisively voted against Congress, reducing its vote share from 40% in 1998 to 24.6%. A similar shift could happen against AAP if controversies and governance issues alienate its voter base.
To secure its position, AAP must reaffirm its distinctiveness from Congress and retain the Congress-origin voters who supported it. By drawing a sharp line between itself and Congress, AAP sends a message to its base that it is willing to sever ties with Congress, even at the cost of jeopardizing the INDIA alliance.
This polarization between BJP and AAP appears to be AAP’s electoral strategy. However, it has exposed cracks in the INDIA bloc. The alliance comprises parties like AAP, the Samajwadi Party, and the Rashtriya Janata Dal, which historically positioned themselves against Congress’s ideology. The INDIA bloc’s cohesion is weak, with parties viewing it as a convenience-based arrangement rather than a principled alliance.
The Delhi elections could become a litmus test for the INDIA bloc. Its credibility cannot rest solely on its opposition to Prime Minister Modi. Only time will tell whether Congress will boldly reclaim its base in Delhi or yield to AAP for the sake of the alliance. (IPA Service)
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