Harsha Kakar
Spurt in terrorist activities in the Jammu belt of J and K, commencing immediately after the conduct of elections in India could not have come out of the blue. As per J and K police, there are few groups of terrorists holed up in the Pir Panjal awaiting directions to reignite terrorism in this belt. They had infiltrated over a period of time. The resurgence is also timed with the conclusion of the visit of Shehbaz Sharief, Pakistan’s PM, to China. He was accompanied by their army chief, General Asim Munir.
Possibly Rawalpindi, which guides the country’s foreign policy with India, would have been instructed by Beijing to enhance levels of terrorism, now that Indian elections have concluded. Possibly China would have directed Pak to keep terrorism low as it was attempting to influence the elections by other means. Had a terrorist strike occurred during electioneering, India would have been compelled to immediately respond across the LOC, giving advantage to the BJP.
This does not imply that India would sit quiet for now. Further, during electioneering, the ruling dispensation had continued harping on regaining POK, an aspect which worried Islamabad as POK was engulfed in violence leading to a few deaths, all of which was exploited by Delhi.
Another aspect which worried Rawalpindi was high percentages of voting across J and K and not a single complaint of rigging, intimidation or violence. Compare this to Pakistan where there were countless accusations of rigging by the army to bring back the Shehbaz Sharief Government. Indian elections are currently being quoted by opposition politicians in Pakistan as to what true democratic elections should be like.
The success of peaceful and enthusiastic voting in J and K has resulted in the election commission commencing its process for assembly elections in the UT, which would be anathema for Pakistan. It would bust Islamabad’s claims over suppression of Kashmiris, especially if voting patterns remain high as at current levels. The fact that Engineer Rashid, currently behind bars in New Delhi’s Tihar jail for his anti-India activities, won the election is an indicator of fairness in the Indian system.
Pak media has been discussing the future of bilateral ties post the re-election of PM Modi. Their disappointment was evident. They termed the victory not as one of BJP but of NDA. Maleeha Lodhi, a former diplomat writing for The Dawn states, ‘Delhi’s well-known terms for re-engagement – minus settlement of disputes – Modi’s hostile stance on Pakistan, and BJP leaders’ threats to seize Azad Kashmir, hold out little hope for any forward movement in bilateral ties.’ India will insist that Pak stop terrorism while refusing to adhere to any of their demands including reinstatement of article 370 as a precondition for talks.
China was known to have interfered in India’s election process through multiple means including their protégé, Neville Ray Singham, who remains under investigation for funding pro-China NewsClick. Beijing was seeking a change in Delhi, hoping someone it could manipulate would come to power. Despite all its efforts, including creating fake social media accounts as also funding anti-India influencers, it failed in its endeavours.
China has been backing the Khalistan movement as also terrorist groups in the North East. It is well established that there is direct contact between the Khalistan movement in the US and Canada and Beijing. Pakistan is attempting to coordinate the Khalistan movement with groups operating in Kashmir. Hence, Pak and China would act in unison.
India had reduced its deployment South of Pir Panjal to boost force levels in Ladakh. By enhancing terrorist activity in the region, China is hoping to reverse India’s troop enhancement by their redeployment with rise of terrorist activities, which is unlikely to happen.
China’s disappointment on its failure to influence elections was evident by the fact that Xi Jinping did not convey his greetings to PM Modi on his re-election. The Chinese PM, Li Qiang, did so a day after Modi was sworn in, almost reluctantly and more to meet diplomatic courtesy. In 2019, Xi had stated, in his congratulatory message, ‘In recent years, China-India relations have shown strong momentum of development under the joint efforts of both sides,’ adding, ‘I attach great importance to the development of China-India relations.’
The Global Times quoted Chinese academics mentioning that there is unlikely to be much improvement in Indo-China ties. What has hit Chinese ego hard is the growing connectivity, economic and diplomatic, between India and Taiwan. The only alternative for China, post its failure to influence Indian elections, is to enhance instability in India. This is only possible in close collaboration with its puppet state, Pakistan.
Thus, promoting terrorism in Kashmir involves both, China and Pakistan, with China providing diplomatic backing. However, Pakistan pulls back when it feels Indian military pressures, aware that on this subject, China cannot assist. While the manner in which India responds is upto the current leadership, but one of the options is to re-activate the LOC, by terminating the ceasefire agreement. This may add to difficulties of innocent population living on both sides of the LOC, however, would end up as a big headache for Pakistan.
Rawalpindi has deployed additional troops to defend its western borders with Afghanistan, as also for anti-terrorism operations in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Baluchistan. With attacks increasing on Chinese workers, it needs additional forces for their protection. These flow from reserve formations deployed along the LOC.
It was possible so long as its borders with India were secure and the LOC was quiet. Once the ceasefire is broken, the situation could escalate and for that the Indian Government and the army must be prepared. Every few years, Pakistan needs to be reminded that it is crossing India’s redlines. The last was Balakote. The next is due.
Simultaneously is the breaking of the overground network in J and K. There are reports that many suspected supporters have been arrested. This should continue as lack of support would impact survivability of infiltrated terrorists.
Finally, under no circumstances should the Government consider postponing elections in J and K on account of terrorism. Conducting elections on time in a free and impartial manner, would do more to bust Pakistan’s ranting on Kashmir than any statement by Government functionaries.
The author is Major General (Retd)
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