Rekha Chowdhary
During the last week, what made election related news in J&K was not about those who joined the contest, but those who opted out of it. There were at least two important developments indicating ‘withdrawal’ or ‘non-participation’ in this election. Of these the first one was related to Ghulam Nabi Azad’s exit from the Parliamentary poll. Late in the process of closing of nomination process of Anantnag-Rajouri constituency, came the announcement of his opting out of the contest. Another candidate from his party, Mohammad Saleem Parray was instead fielded from this constituency. The second news about ‘not participating’ was related to BJP. After lot of speculation about who would be fielded by the party in the three Valley constituencies, especially in the Anantnag-Rajouri constituency, the party declared that it is not going to join the contest in any of the three constituencies. Not only it was not fielding any candidate in Srinagar and Baramulla constituencies where it still has to make a political space, but also in Anantnag-Rajouri constituency where it was making political inroads for some time now.

Election Watch

Democratic Progressive Azad Party (DPAP) had declared early this month that Azad would be contesting from Anantnag-Rajouri constituency – surprising many since the stronghold of this party is Udhampur-Doda constituency and not Poonch-Rajouri. Azad had in a way confirmed the announcement by saying that he would be leading the party from the front. His candidature in Anantnag-Rajouri constituency had raised the stakes in the electoral process in the constituency because Mehbooba Mufti had also chosen this constituency to contest on behalf of PDP. With two former Chief Minister facing each other, the whole process was going to be very intensely competitive. With NC’s Mian Altaf already in fray and a probable high profile BJP candidate, electoral process as well as the outcome in this keenly watched constituency would not only have become very complex but also very interesting and unpredictable.
However, Azad took the decision not to contest. The reason that he offered for his withdrawal from the contest was that he didn’t want to leave the state and be in Delhi as MP. “After I left Delhi and came here, I was reminded by people you are returning to Delhi (by contesting Lok Sabha). So, I have decided to stay here and serve the people” was Azad’s response.
BJP’s announcement about not contesting the three seats of valley, meanwhile, was preceded by a declaration by Home Minister Amit Shah during a rally in Jammu that BJP was not in a hurry about its footprints in Kashmir and that the party would rather look for positive response of people there. “When we receive your love, the lotus will also bloom in the Valley. We don’t have any worries”, stated Mr. Shah. Rather than appealing voters to vote for BJP in Kashmir, he asked them to refrain from voting for the “three dynastic parties – NC, PDP and the Congress”. “Farooq Abdullah, Mehbooba Mufti, and Sonia Gandhi, he stated, ‘work for their daughters and sons and not for the people”.
Though not for Srinagar and Baramulla Lok Sabha constituencies, but for Anantnag-Rajouri constituency, BJP’s entry was being taken for granted. Reason for this was simple – that the party had heavily politically invested in this constituency. It had been working here for quite some time, especially in the twin districts of Poonch and Rajouri. After the political empowerment of the Gujjars through the process of political reservation and more specifically after the fulfilment of the long-standing demand of ST status for the Paharis, these districts seemed to be quite positively oriented towards the BJP.
With BJP entering the contest, the competition in the Valley constituencies, or at least in this semi-Kashmiri constituency would not have remained confined to Kashmir-based parties. BJP as a national party would have made cracks in the exclusive claim of Kashmiri regional parties here. But as the situation stand now, the competition is now only among the NC, PDP, People’s Conference and Apni Party – all Kashmir-based regional parties (the only exception being DPAP with a low profile candidate). The only other national party that could have joined the fray – the Congress is also not fielding a candidate in any of the three constituencies because of it alliance with the NC.
This creates a setting of regional divide among the political parties in J&K – with not only a different set of parties competing in both the regions but the nature of competition also being different. While the electoral contest in Jammu region is taking place mainly between the two national parties – the BJP and the Congress; in Kashmir, it is taking place among the Kashmir based regional parties. Meanwhile, as against a straight contest between two parties (Congress and BJP) in Jammu region, Kashmir region is going to face a multi-cornered contest.
Electoral alliances are also following the logic of regional divide. The INDIA block seems to have been perfectly operating in Jammu region with Congress, NC and PDP aligned with each other. While Congress has been contesting both the seats of the region, the NC and PDP are supporting the congress candidates. Both the parties decided not to field any candidate against Congress here.
In Kashmir, meanwhile the alliance has taken a reverse form. With NC and PDP both deciding to contest on their own in each of the three constituencies of the region, all alliances – whether the PAGD one or alliance of the INDIA block has fully collapsed.
It is rather in opposition to these two parties NC and PDP, or rather NC mainly, that alliances are emerging. The non-NC/PDP parties of Kashmiris are actually seeking to join each other to give a fight to NC. (PDP is seen as a weaker party posing lesser danger as compared to the NC). Parties like People’s Conference and Apni Party viewing NC as their main competitor, have been seeking not only an alliance between themselves but also with the BJP.
There was an indication earlier that the Apni Party and People’s Conference were seeking to contest election together against the NC. That could not happen at that time but some developments are taking place in that direction now. More recently, Sajjad Lone of People’s Conference has appealed to Altaf Bukhari of Apni Party to support him against the NC in the Baramulla constituency. With NC being represented by Omar Abdullah in this constituency, Sajad Lone wants all the support that he can get to have a chance of winning. In return to this support by Apni Party, Lone has shown his readiness to support Apni Party in any of other constituency where its candidates are contesting. Apni Party, in its turn, may do well to get support of PC not only in Srinagar constituency but also in Anantnag-Rajouri constituency where its candidate Zafar Iqbal Manhas seems to be acquiring some prominence not only because he is a Pahari candidate but also because his chances have somewhat increased because of absence of Azad and any BJP candidate.
Meanwhile both these parties are positively oriented towards the BJP. Apni Party, in fact has already shown its keenness to be getting the support of BJP. Soon after Amit Shah’s statement indicating that BJP is not fielding candidates in any of the three constituencies of the Valley, Altaf Bukhari sought to reflect his party’s proximity with Prime Minister Modi. On being asked if his party was indirectly affiliated with BJP, Bukhari responded that Apni Party ‘directly’ stood with Prime Minister Modi. Linking abrogation of Article 370 with peace, he stated that Modi had safeguarded land and jobs for the local people.
Will the BJP openly support the Apni Party in Anantnag-Rajouri seat? This will be clear in next few days and weeks. Similarly, what would be the approach of the BJP towards People’s Conference – that would also be illuminated in the coming days and weeks. However, irrespective of the possibilities – whether BJP enters into a formal alliance with Apni Party and People’s Conference or not – one thing that is clearly marked is that these three parties stand in one side against the NC. All the three have been targeting the NC with almost a similar political narrative. While BJP has been holding NC responsible for militancy, separatism, underdevelopment and backwardness of Jammu and Kashmir, People’s Conference and Apni Party have been holding NC accountable for the violence and killings of thousands of Kashmiris during last three decades. Politically and ideologically, these three parties are aligned with each other.
(Feedback is welcome at rekchowdhary@gmail.com)

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