Anil Gupta
The recent attack on Indian Consulate at Herat in Afghanistan has once again shifted the focus of entire world towards this war ravaged nation. US and its allies are planning withdrawal of its International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) from Afghanistan by the end of this year leaving behind approximately a divison sized force. The total withdrawal would be completed by 2016. The problem in Afghanistan, mostly believe, is still unresolved and the US withdrawal is going to create a vacuum. Who would fill this vacuum worries the Afghan watchers and security analysts. Both India and Pakistan have serious stakes in Afghanistan. A serious fallout is also expected in the frontier state of J&K, which is a cause of concern. The aim of this article, therefore, is to acquaint the readers with strategic importance of Afghanistan, conflicting interests of India and Pakistan, likely consequences in J&K of the US withdrawal and suggested response. Afghanistan is a very complex nation. Thus, it would be easier to comprehend the subject with the knowledge of Afghanistan and its complexities.
Why is Afghanistan important for India and Pakistan
Both India and Pakistan perceive their influence in Afghanistan vital to achieve their primary national security objectives and consider Afghanistan as zero-sum dynamic where the gain of one party is considered other’s loss. The Indian interests in Afghanistan are centred around its policy of economically and politically stable Afghanistan. A strong and stable Afghanistan furthers India’s national security objectives namely denial of safe havens to various terrorist groups including those operating from Pak soil, gaining access to Central Asian Republics for trade and energy resources, to be recognised as a regional power and projection of its soft power and prevent spread of fundamentalism and influence of Taliban. In contrast Pakistan’s Afghan policy is India-centric and driven by the desire to negate Indian influence in the region. Thus, a weak and strife torn Afghanistan with pliant Talibans as a major player with considerable influence is Pak’s desire. It wants to use Afghan space for ‘Strategic Depth’ against a perceived Indian invasion, use Afghan soil for training and housing terrorist groups including Pak based extremist groups- considered as strategic assets by the Pak military and ISI, minimise Indian influence, prevent India’s soft power projection in Central and South Asia. Pakistan also perceives that the secessionist movement in Baloochistan is sponsored by India’s RAW and the Afghan route is used to train and equip the secessionists. Though this is a highly misplaced assumption, it therefore feels that denial of Indian influence in Afghanistan is in their national interest. Pakistan’s Afghan strategy has been largely influenced by its hawkish army which has played a major role ever since Independence in formulating the national security strategy. It is quite obvious that the interests of India and Pakistan in Afghanistan are mutually conflicting.
Consequences of US withdrawal
US withdrawal from Afghanistan would severly impact the security and geopolitical dynamics in the region. India’s Afghan policy would be put to real test by the emerging political and security scenario in Afghanistan post the withdrawal While India would aim at preventing ‘Talibisation’ of Afghanistan and minimise Pakistan’s influence on the new Afghan government, Pakistan would vigorously upgrade its intervention in Afghanistan to ensure victory of pliant Talibans and thus have a favourably disposed government in Kabul. The implications of US withdrawal are bound to impact India’s stakes in Afghanistan. A seacure and politically stable Afghanistan is vital for India’s economic and trade interest including the revival of silk route. Pakistan would like to assume full control of different terrorist groups associated with Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and the centrifugal tendencies in Baloochistan. In worst case scenario a serious rethink by Pakistan of its ‘Doctrine of Strategic Depth’ may become a necessity.
Impact on Indo-Pak relations
As highlighted earlier both India and Pakistan have mutually conflicting interests in Afghanistan. The desire to control the Afghan affairs post US withdrawal would naturally affect the already fragile Indo-Pak relations. In the interest of security and stability in South Asia, it would be advisable for Pakistan to eschew the India-centric Afghan policy and develop a more pragmatic strategy that would enable Afghanistan to emerge as a secure and stable nation in the region. The Afghans could thus reap the benefits of huge investments made in the war ravaged nation and become economically vibrant and shun violence. This would also have a natural fallout in turbulent Pakistan. Improved Indo-Pak relations would lead to revival of Pak’s dwindling economy as well. A win-win situation for all the players in the region.
Implications for J&K
J&K is going to be the major sufferer if Pakistan continues to follow its avowed India-centric Afghan policy. “Kashmir is the heart of India-Pakistan relations and Jihadis will turn towards Kashmir after the withdrawal of foreign troops from Afghanistan this year,” has said a former Pakistani Army Chief. General Mirza Aslam Beig, another former Pak Army chief, has this to say,”After the withdrawal of occupation forces from Afghanistan by the end of this year, the Jihadis would turn towards Kashmir, as they did in 1990, after the Soviet withdrawal, raising the threshold of confrontation between India and Pakistan to a dangerous level.” The signs are ominous. Pakistan will leave no stone unturned to once again bring the Valley to boil and spread turmoil in the State. Former Northern Army Commander in his farewell interview published in the Tribune said, ” There would be a considerable effect after the drawdown of ISAF from Afghanistan, and as a professional army we are keeping a close watch. However, the impact of ISAF drawdown from Afghanistan is yet to be felt in J&K.” At the time when the US drawdown will be in its final phases towards the end of the year, the J&K state would be involved in the elections to the state assembly. Security forces would have to work overtime to provide a safe and secure environment for the people to be able to exercise their democratic right to vote.
The Response
Pakistan military has made its intentions very clear. Our response to Pakistan’s evil design would have to be proactive rather than reactive. The state in collaboration with other intellegence agencies must on priority upgrade and modernise its intellegence apparatus. Human intellegence (HUMINT) assets should also be upgraded and honed to get grassroot level information. A total synergy between the Army, JK Police and all other security forces must be ensured. It should percolate down to lowest functional level and not remain confined to discussion rooms. The politicians should refrain from making statements that effect the morale of the security forces and hinders their operational freedom. The demand to revoke AFSPA should be put on the back burner in the larger national interest.
There is urgent need to put in place a 24×7 all weather fully automated surveillance grid along the IB and LOC. Stand alone battery/solar operated surveillance systems may have to be placed in difficult and uncovered areas. Dedicated satellite based digital communication must complement the surveillance and intellegence grid to get real time information. A fool proof anti inflitration grid must be established along the IB , LOC and the hinter land. Unity of command should be ensured to avoid the blame game once the grid is penetrated by the terrorists.
Turf battles between various intellegence agencies and security forces must be eliminated by an efective unified command. The minor irritants in command and control must be resolved. Any violation of directives and SOPs must be dealt with a firm hand. An unambiguous and robust command and control set up would be needed to thwart the challenge. It must be appreciated that the terrorists would be highly indoctrinated, better trained and equipped with modern war fighting gadgets.
Jammu & Kashmir Police would need to considerably upgrade its training and enhance combat proficiency and skills of its personnel. The force would also need to address motivational and welfare issues to become the best anti-terrorist outfit in the country. SOPs must be reviewed and revised, if necessary. Sleeper Cells need to be identified and eliminated. The over ground workers and sympathisers should be neutralised and made ineffective. The black sheep within the force should be identified and dealt with according to the law.
To ensure that Pakistan does not succeed in its nefarious designs in J&K, our response would have to be innovative, firm and resolute. An ‘Out of Box’ approach is the need of the hour. It is better to be fore warned and be prepared than to repent after the bullet has been fired.
( The author is a retired Brigadier and a security analyst)
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