G L Raina
Jammu Kashmir is not in a position to face future challenges in isolation. States are neither capable nor do they have expertise and resources to take remedial measures on their own. It has to be a united effort where both states and the centre unite to have a mutually complementary strategy to tide over consequent emergency.
Global warming, climate change and its adverse effects, an unknown phenomenon just a few years back, is now a growing concern at even laymen’s level. Intense heat waves, devastating floods, earthquakes, tsunamis and droughts are occurring more frequently now giving rise to uncertainty world over. Insecurity is staring mankind on several other counts like wars, terrorism, social unrest, economic slowdowns, food production decrease etc
Jammu Kashmir is also affected by global events and developments. Upsurge in demand of commodities including basic needs of ROTI, KAPDA AUR MAKKAN due to Population increase on one side and dwindling cultivable land, natural resources on the other side is troubling experts and Governments alike.
At this time the Department of economic affairs has come out with an appraisal of the Indian economy taking an overview of its past, present and future. Titled The Indian Economy -A Review, this paper needs to be looked at in the aforesaid background.
The review document cautions about the global economy battered by successive shocks and struggling to maintain its recovery post-Covid pandemic. It says that if blows like supply chain disruptions persist, they will impact trade flows, transportation costs, economic output and inflation worldwide. India including Jammu Kashmir definitely will also be impacted both in short and longer terms.
Review document underlines at least three trends that will be there in the coming years.
First is the end of hyper-globalisation in manufacturing, even though de-globalisation will not happen so soon because of the enormous integration of global supply chains over the last few decades. Since alternative global supply chains will take time to emerge, pressure is mounting on transportation, logistics costs, and, hence, the final prices of products.
Recent events in the Red Sea have added to the concerns over reliance on global supply chains. In other words, paper believes that exporting one’s way to growth will not be easy. This emphasizes the need to lower logistics costs and invest in product quality to hold on to and expand market share in areas where India has an advantage.
Closely related to this challenge, says the Review paper, is the advent of Artificial Intelligence with the profound and troubling questions it poses for growth in services trade and employment since technology might remove the advantage of cost competitiveness that countries exporting digital services enjoy.
Third and arguably the most important is the energy transition challenge. Concerns over rising temperatures have led to a single-minded focus on reducing carbon emissions amidst the determination that the emission of greenhouse gases, particularly carbon, is the most significant causal factor. This has led to persistent focus to move away from fossil fuels and switch to greener energy. It is a reality that, in the short run, there is a trade-off between economic growth and energy transition. In a growth-challenged post-Covid global economy, countries can ill afford to sacrifice the former for the latter. India is walking the fine line between the two more skilfully than other nations, with installed non-fossil fuel-based power generation capacity running ahead of targets.
The Government of India under the capable leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi has prepared a road map for the future aimed to transform the country to a VIKSIT BHARAT, a developed country by 2047. He has asked for SAB KA PRAYAS in this direction.
India is in fact playing a leading role in helping the world community to have a smoother transition. The Global Biofuel Alliance for global cooperation in the realm of fuel blending and International Solar Alliance to mobilize efforts against climate change through deployment of solar energy solutions are two instant examples in this regard
Government policies at national level are being framed in a manner that will enable the transition with comparative ease. Glimpses of these policies are evident even in the interim Budget presented recently in the Parliament and also in launch of rooftop solar scheme for free electricity – PM Surya Ghar Muft Bijli Yojana.
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman in her budget speech was emphatic in terming global affairs as more complex and challenging with wars and conflicts. Globalization is being redefined with reshoring and friend-shoring, disruption and fragmentation of supply chains, and competition for critical minerals and technologies, she asserted. A new world order is emerging after the Covid pandemic, she stressed.
Delving upon vision for ‘Viksit Bharat’, she added that “Prosperous Bharat in harmony with nature, with modern infrastructure, and providing opportunities for all citizens and all regions to reach their potential” with confidence arising from strong and exemplary track record of performance and progress earning ‘Sabka Vishwas’, the next five years will be years of unprecedented development, and golden moments to realize the dream of developed India @ 2047. She hoped that the trinity of demography, democracy and diversity backed by ‘Sabka Prayas’ which has the potential to fulfil aspirations of every Indian will be realised.
We in Jammu Kashmir are also conscious of these challenges at local and global level. Only this winter we have witnessed consequences of delayed snowfall leading to receding water levels in rivers resulting in crippling of power generation from rated capacity of 3500 MW to only generating 600 MW.
Jammu and Kashmir continues to be a food deficit and consumer state. The state mostly relies on imports to meet its food requirements and in the coming years, the situation is expected to worsen further. Jammu and Kashmir, specialists point out, has already surpassed the world in average temperature rise recorded in the last 100 years. Seasonal air temperatures also show a rise in all seasons. Unusual rise in temperatures can result in lowering the overall production and further increasing the deficit in food production.
The Union Government has schemes complementing the efforts for reducing postharvest losses, and improving productivity and incomes. Private and public investment in post-harvest activities including aggregation, modern storage, efficient supply chains, primary and secondary processing and marketing and branding can benefit Jammu Kashmir also.
National Solar Mission as one of the key Missions with active participation from States to promote ecological sustainable growth while addressing growing energy security challenges constitutes a major contribution by India to the global effort to meet the challenges of climate change.
Budget proposal has this scheme of Rooftop solarisation that will enable households to obtain up to 300 units free electricity every month. Besides selling the surplus to the distribution companies; charging electric vehicles; providing Entrepreneurship opportunities for a large number of vendors for supply and installation creating Employment opportunities for the youth with technical skills in manufacturing, installation and maintenance.
This is just one aspect of the emerging situation and solution there off. Others like food production, Housing, health care, education and other needs for future generations are similarly challenging. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has demonstrated successfully the ability to transform challenges into opportunity.
Jammu Kashmir or for that matter any state in India is not in a position to face these challenges in isolation. States are neither capable nor do they have expertise and resources to take remedial measures on their own. It has to be a united effort where both states and the centre are on the same page playing a complementary role to each other.
Jammu Kashmir in particular because of its location has more to gain from multi-dimensional integration with the Union. Harping on separate, special, disparate or distinctiveness will prove disastrous. It is time to pursue integration-social, economic, institutional and political with rigour. This is the only way to minimize undesirable effects of emerging threats and ensure a balanced approach to peace, prosperity and protection of the environment.
(The author is former Member of Legislative Council of Jammu Kashmir and Spokesperson of BJP JK UT)
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