Dr. Gyan Pathak
The Draft Communique of G20, the countries which are responsible for 80 per cent of global emissions, circulated on November 19, 2024, doesn’t mention “transitioning away from the fossil fuels” the phrase already agreed upon at COP28. G20 summit (November 18 -19) at Brazil thus displays a stark failure, as far as climate action is concerned, on the one hand, while COP29 in midway at Baku in Azerbaijan has turned into a stage for theatrics, and time is running out for an effective agreement on key issue of considerably scaling up necessary funding the climate action to save the planet Earth.
Despite an early breakthrough in COP29 (November 11-22) on standards that is likely to pave the way for a UN-governed carbon market, the talks on climate finance have been slow and contentious, with delegates digging in their heels rather than looking for common ground. It is frustrating before COP29 closes on November 22.
As COP29 climate talks in Baku entered their final week, the UN climate chief Simon Stiell had to tell negotiators on Monday to “cut the theatrics,” get down to business and hammer out a new finance deal to compensate countries for climate-driven damages and pay for a clean-energy transition.
“Bluffing, brinksmanship, and pre-mediated playbooks” are burning up precious time and running down the goodwill needed for an ambitious package, emphasized Mr. Stiell, the Executive Secretary of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change(UNFCCC). Mr. Stiell’s plea comes after the concern expressed by UN Secretary-General António Guterres in Rio de Janeiro, where G20 summit is being held, over the state of negotiations at COP29.
The Draft G20 leaders’ communique focuses on the 2 degree Celsius, which was upper limit of the Paris Agreement of 2015 but the countries had agreed to keep warming below 1.5 degree Celsius by 2030, that is clearly a back-tracking. Far worse, not mentioning “transition away from fossil fuels” agreed upon at COP28, while mentioning the need for scaling up public and private climate finance and investment for developing countries and a successful New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) outcome in Baku, is clearly hypocritical.
“We reaffirm the Paris Agreement temperature goal of holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit temperature increase to 1.5 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels, recognizing that this would significantly reduce the risks and impacts of climate change. We underscore that the impacts of climate change will be much lower at the temperature increase of 1.5 degrees Celsius compared with 2 degrees Celsius and reiterate our resolve to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 degrees Celsius.”
“Silence on a new climate finance goal and refusal to address a fossil fuel phase-out are unacceptable from the world’s largest economies and highest emitters. As uncertainty grows at COP29, the moment demands political leadership – not passive repetition of past agreements,” said the Climate Action Network in a statement.
Negotiation in Baku is primarily focused on how to pay for transition away from burning fossil fuels and how to equitably support climate adaptation. For this a considerably increased financing in necessary, since estimated adaptation finance gap is in the range of USD 187-359 billion per year as per Adaptation Gap Report 2024. The annual financing pledge was of on $100 billion set in 2009 which is to expire this year. However, it was for the first time in 2022, the annual target was achieved in 2022 when it reached USD 115.9 billion.
Based on modelled projections using the United Nations Global Policy Model, developing countries would need about $1.1 trillion in climate finance from 2025 and some $1.8 trillion by 2030.UNCTAD says that the new climate financing contribution target for developed economies would be $0.89 trillion from 2025 and $1.46 trillion by 2030.
Moreover, Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) commitments are far less than require to reduce the targeted emission level. UN Adaptation Gap Report 2024 had asserted that global emissions would need to drop rapidly by 2030, falling 42 per cent from 2019 levels, to keep warming below 1.5 degree Celsius. To achieve the goal, some 60 per cent of the world’s electricity would need to come from renewable sources by 2030. There are other elements of uncertainties, including the re-election of Donald Trump as US President, who has vowed to pull the US from the Paris Agreement and drop the countries commitments to cut carbon emissions. New NDCs are to be submitted by February 2025.
According to the 4th edition of the Climate Action Monitor published by the OECD, Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) currently commit to a collective reduction in greenhouse gas emissions of only 14% by 2030, compared to 2022 levels, in countries covered by IPAC which produce over 80% of global GHG emissions.
However, the theatrics played by developed countries at COP29, has compelled the UN Climate Chief to urge delegates to wrap us “less contentious issues” as early as possible this week, so that there would be enough time for the major political decisions. It was said in the backdrop of the talks on global climate finance that was virtually halted midway and developed countries led by European Union (EU) and developing countries including India, Brazil, South Africa, and a group of African countries and island nations were poles apart.
EU had earlier said that such a large fund ($1.3 trillion yearly) can only be achieved if “wealthier high-emitting” developing countries like China and the Gulf states also contribute, a proposal that was major sticking point, since developing countries considered it an attempt to shift responsibility away from developed countries who were historically largest emitter and the most benefitted from industrialisation.
With softening of EU’s stand now has generated some hope. European Commissioner for Climate Action, Wopke Hoekstra, suggested a compromise on Monday, proposing voluntary contributions from these nations without changing the traditional classification of developed and developing countries.COP29 President Mukhtar Babayev said countries still have significant disagreements on the structure, funding amount, and contributors to the new climate finance goal. However, the host of the COP29, Azerbaijan is being criticized for allegedly using the event to boost fossil fuels and their glorification by country’s president Ilham Aliyev as a ‘gift of the god’. (IPA)
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