By Satyaki Chakraborty
The anti-fascist forces in Germany felt a big relief after the Sunday’s crucial elections to Brandenburg region showed that the beleaguered ruling Social Democratic Party (SPD) narrowly beat the surging far right party AFD defying all opinion polls about the AFD’s imminent victory. The SPD got 31 per cent as against AFD’s 29 per cent while the left leaning BSW got 13 per cent and the Christian Democrats 11 per cent.
Brandenburg has been ruled by the SPD for long years and the German Chancellor Olaf Scholz belongs to this region. His leadership was at stake as the AFD was surging ahead in the regional elections at the cost of SPD and Brandenburg was the last regional elections before Germany goes to the national polls in October 2025. Scholz who was in New York to attend the UN general assembly continuously monitored the developments on Sunday and Monday as the poll results poured in.
The AfD which has little base in Brandenburg five years back got massive support from the workers and the youth campaigning on the issue of immigration and the joblessness of the youth. The far right party which consists of a large number of members eulogizing Hitler, has been campaigning with resounding success in the earlier two regional elections and now after the latest Brandenburg polls, the AFD is aiming to win the 2025 national elections.
The election results will now force the SPD to go for an alliance with BSW to form the new government to keep the AFD out. Normally, the SPD will not like to join hands with BSW which is against NATO and favours the stoppage of arms supplies to Ukraine. BSW is in favour of taking soft approach to Russia and President Putin. These are all against the accepted policies of the SPD government.
Three other parties with whom the SPD would usually consider a partnership performed miserably, with the Greens failing to get into parliament at all. So the leftist Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), which came in third with 13%, appears crucial to coalition talks.
The SPD now faces negotiations with a party that is demanding a cancellation of plans to station US long-range missiles in Germany and is calling for Berlin to push for peace talks with Moscow rather than supply Ukraine with weapons. The SPD leaders have contacted BSW leaders for talks with the hope that BSW will dilute its hard position to keep out the far right party AFD from power which it also wants.
The ruling SPD’s popularity is in steep decline.., Three-quarters of SPD voters said after Branderburg regional elections that they had been motivated by the desire to keep the AfD out of power, rather than a belief in the SPD’s ability to govern. Voter participation was at its highest level ever, at 73%. Analysis of Branderburg results reveal that the AFD had made considerable gains compared with the last regional election in 2019 recording a 16.6 per cent rise in support among the 16-24 year old youth. In contrast, the Greens and the traditional left Die Linke lost heavily
Germany had always a strong communist presence for the last one hundred years. Even after the reunification of West and East in 1990, the East Germany part had strong left support base. The firebrand leader Sahra Wagenknecht split away from traditional Die Linke and formed her party BSW which beat the parent party Die Linke in all regional elections. .
But there are signs that BSW has dented the support base of Die Linke and that has led to the decline in Die Linke’s support base in regional elections. But in the wake of far right upsurge, BSW’s growth is a positive development since the new party has also dented the working class base of the AFD..
According to experts, a look at voter shifts in June’s EU elections suggests that the BSW is primarily hurting the left-wing Die Linke and the ruling Social Democrats (SPD). As per InfratestDimap, most BSW voters previously voted for the SPD and Die Linke: 580,000 former SPD voters and 470,000 former Die Linke voters switched to the BSW. Only 160,000 of the BSW voters had voted for the AfD in the 2021 federal election. According to this same pollster, most BSW voters in Thuringia and Saxony this September 1election also came from the broad left and only a small portion from the AfD.
A study by the Institute of Economic and Social Research (WSI) of the German trade union federation’s think tank found that the BSW is perceived as an antiestablishment alternative, particularly in eastern Germany and among those who have only recently turned to the AfD. Socio-structurally, these are regions and communities where the PDS (Party for Democratic Socialism, one of the precursors of Die Linke) used to be successful. The BSW is strong in regions with high unemployment and an ageing population and, according to the WSI, particularly appeals to low-income voters, and those with pessimistic expectations for the future and little trust in existing institutions.
The German people are anxiously looking at the post poll developments and the outcome of alliance talks. If SPD can form a stable government and that give good administration, that will matter before the national elections October next year. The AFD is waiting for every opportunity to see the SPD alliance government fall so that they can emerge as a viable alternative in 2055 elections. As regards divided Left, it seems that BSW will continue its own course after its initial success and the parent left Die Linke will have a hard time in keeping its base intact unless there is some major decisions to galvanise the members and supporters of the party. (IPA
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