Rekha Chowdhary
Though much has been commented on the recently held elections in Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh, one can still try to decipher these elections from the perspective of the larger picture about the Indian politics.
One may however start with certain disclaimers. Disclaimer number one – that there is no comparison between Gujarat and Himachal, in terms of the importance and the impact that these two states might have on the politics as a whole. Gujarat is much bigger state with 37 MPs (26 Lok Sabha and 11 Rajya Sabha members) and Himachal is much smaller with 7 MPs (4 Lok Sabha and 3 Rajya Sabha members) Disclaimer number two – that the electoral behaviour in the two states during the recent elections was as dissimilar as the electoral outcome. And yet, despite this dissimilarity, one may try to see some trends in the Indian politics at the moment when we are nearing the next parliamentary election.
The unprecedented seventh time victory for BJP in Gujarat (and that too a landslide one with a record number of seats ) – has its own story to tell not only of the invincibility of the BJP in this state but of the larger than life size of Modi. It was an election that had prime Minister Modi’s personal stamp written all over it. If one is looking for an indication for 2024 election – Gujarat has made it very clear – it is going to reaffirm BJP’s or rather Modi-centric BJP’s dominance.
Coming back to Gujarat. After 27 years of continuous rule, it was not that the anti-incumbency factor did not exist but that it did not matter in this state. Governance was not a central issue in this election. What was central to the election was the fact that Modi was embodiment of Gujarati pride and it was for this pride that Gujarat was voting. It did not matter what the government had done during last five years or who the candidates were.
While this election reaffirmed the popularity of Modi as the national leader, it also affirmed the seriousness of the BJP in approaching the electoral process. Apart from creating a narrative suitable for its victory, it put all its efforts in campaigning – with PM, Home Minister and many other senior ministers continuously being present and giving personal direction to the electoral campaign.
In this matter, the Congress presented a picture of contrast – actually it presented itself as a party that had neither the will nor the capacity to fight the BJP. In the process, it frittered away the advantage that it had of having an effective presence after the 2017 election. It neither indulged in aggressive campaign nor in setting the narrative. The almost total absence of the national leaders in Gujarat clearly showed that the party had given up on this state even without a fight. The result was that it could not win enough number of seats to be recognised as an opposition party in the legislature.
It was the AAP that overtook the Congress both in creating the narrative and in undertaking aggressive campaign. However, it could not either give a challenge to the BJP nor replace the Congress as the second largest party of the state. Despite emulating the BJP in its ideological plank and deliberately projecting its pro-Hindutva orientation, it miserably failed to project itself as an alternative to the BJP. Its major challenge was felt by the Congress that lost its voter base to this party. It was at the cost of Congress that AAP could win enough seats to be recognised as a national party.
Himachal Pradesh was a different game – a relatively much smaller state that had its own logic of electoral politics. With a stable bi-party politics, it has the democratic tradition of throwing out the incumbent government and replacing it every five years. In the background of the overall popularity of Modi and dominance of BJP at the national level on the one hand and incapacity of Congress to win any state for a long time, on the other – the BJP had campaigned for changing this tradition (Rivaj). But in the end, the tradition continued and mandate was given in favour of the Congress. Though the BJP could get almost as much vote share as the Congress (only 0.9% difference), there was a huge gap in the seat share (40 for Congress and 25 for BJP)
While strong anti-incumbency against Jai Ram Thakur government and BJP’s acute factionalism worked in favour of the Congress, what actually helped the Congress to win this election was not as much as its effort and its process of campaign but mainly the push of the people there. Whether Congress was ready for it or not, the voters really wanted a change and consciously worked for it. One thing which needs to be noted about Himachal is that apart from its democratic tradition of changing government every five years, it also has the aware and well-mobilised citizenry. One could therefore see the role played by the apple growers lobby as much as by the government employees lobby and civil society organisations.
Unlike Gujarat where issues did not matter and Modi magic worked, in Himachal, issues were at the centre of elections. Apart from the revival of the old pension scheme, unemployment, inefficient governance, apple growers’ resentment and various other issues were raised. Though the BJP sought to launch its ideological narrative and referred to Ram Mandir, Uniform Civil Code and Article 370 – the narrative of elections somehow continued to remain confined to issues of local governance. And it is because of this centrality of local issues that Congress got the benefit.
Despite the different nature of elections and different outcome in these two states, what broad comments one can make about the politics at the moment. Of course, there are two obvious comments – one, that the era of the dominance of the BJP is going to continue in the Indian politics for some time and, Second, that Congress, despite its victory in Himachal, is at its weakest point and needs to totally reinvent itself in order to have a relevance in Indian politics.
Other than that, one can point out few changing realities of BJP since it came to power – of these the first relates to the factionalism within BJP. For an ideological oriented party that is known for its strict discipline, factionalism has been an alien phenomenon so far. (One would actually associate factionalism mainly with the Congress party). However the kind of internal strife that the BJP witnessed during the Himachal elections and the huge number of rebel candidates that contested elections against the party candidates – is something that was quite a new trend and most probably linked with the perils of being in power and being the most influential party in the country.
The second relates to Prime Minister Modi becoming a cult figure and his personal influence being the most important factor in the electoral politics. And even though ideology remains most crucial factor in the BJP politics, yet the fact remains that there is a change in the equation between the party and the leader. As the trends show, the leader is assuming larger role in the party than ever and his connect with people is the most important asset for the BJP.
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