Anil Anand
The first and foremost fact about just concluded Bihar assembly elections is that it was a hard fought and closely contested elections as was expected. The final outcome or the tally of seats amply bears this fact out no matter whatever the political parties- winning or losing- might claim.
The first fact that endorses the fact about the poll being closely contested one and even went to the wire is that the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) under the young and fresh leadership of Mr Tejashwi Yadav has emerged as the single largest party. The second endorsing factor is that the BJP has bagged the second spot and more so the margin between RJD and BJP is just of one seat that speaks volumes as to how hard contest was.
The RJD’s 75 versus the BJP’s 74! It does not in any way reflect a landslide victory or a crushing defeat for one side or the other.
What has made the difference between the RJD-led ‘Mahaghatbandhan’ failing to touch the magical figure of 122 and BJP-led combine the NDA hitting the jackpot? While the fight between the lead players in two alliances was almost even, the game changer proved to be performance of the second number supporting parties- the Congress for the former and JD (u) of Mr Nitish Kumar for the latter.
Interestingly, neither JD (u) nor Congress performed as per expectations. But in the ultimate comparison what clinched the issue for the NDA is that the JD (u) performed better than the Congress who fell much beyond expectations. It would not be wrong to say that Congress despite having got more seats (70) than its current existence on ground in ‘Mahaghatbandan’ not only performed dismally but cost 31 year old Mr Tejashwi the chief minister’s post.
There is no denying the fact that JD (u) by its own calculations also performed badly and as a result surrendered its lead role ( bada bhai status) to BJP, in the NDA, but the 40 plus seats won by it led to this combine crossing the Rubicon to form the government. For the time being Mr Tejashwi’s loss is Mr Kumar’s gain who by all available indications and as endorsed by Prime Minister, Mr Narendra Modi, would be the NDA chief minister. This could be a solace for the bruised chief minister but not at all comforting as he is in for tough time ahead dealing with the a politically over-ambitious big brother, the BJP.
The BJP’s dream of coming out of the shadow of Mr Kumar has been partially fulfilled by gaining the number one slot in the NDA. The total realisation of this dream lies in the BJP having its own chief minister and there lays the difficulty for the “susashan babu” the sobriquet which Mr Kumar enjoyed till few months back.
One strong take-away of this election is the endorsement that brand Modi is intact. The durability of this brand came into play to overcome his government’s misdemeanours and ward-off the ill effects of issues such as reverse migration resulting due to COVID-19 pandemic, improper implementation of GST, demonetisation and resultant inflation and even the Indo-Sino standoff on the Line of Actual Control.
The clever strategy of diverting the entire anti-incumbency tirade towards chief minister, Mr Kumar made the brand Modi look more durable in the public eye and that the latter could do no wrong. While Mr Kumar sulked and went into his trade-mark silent mode, team Modi revelled and went full steam with this diversionary tactic.
The biggest find or take-away of this election is Mr Tejashwi. He has scored a resounding victory despite the ‘Mahaghatbandhan’ not emerging an outright victor and despite missing the chance to become chief minister at the age of 31. The ode is simply to his leadership acumen which he abundantly exhibited and by capably leading both his party-led alliance as well as the RJD from the front. No doubt he became the awe even for his critics.
Apart from the electoral performance front, Mr Tejaswhi has scored a victory on two fronts. Firstly, he by his sheer performance and exhibition of leadership qualities has settled the heir-apparency issue among the Lalu Prasad-Rabri Devi siblings. His siblings might continue raising the issue within the family but the manner in which he led the alliance and his party in particular in the absence of his father, has not only established his leadership in the public eye but has also taken him miles ahead of his brothers and sisters.
Ever since the advent of coalition era Mr Laloo Prasad Yadav had played a pivotal role in uniting the anti-BJP forces. He has been uncompromising and has steadfastly remained committed to this cause. And ever since he became politically inactive after being sentenced to jail in corruption cases, the question being often asked was who will fill this gap. Mr Tejaswhi seems to have answered this query despite questions being raised on allocation of 70 seats to non-performing Congress that will keep haunting him for quite some time.
It goes to his credit that he succeeded to change the electoral discourse from the usual and for which Bihar is known- religion and caste based agenda to developmental issues such as employment, health and education. It might have cost him some seats but he stuck to his agenda till the last and forced his rivals at least the BJP to toe the same line. Or else how could anyone explain the BJP leaders’ sudden rebuttal to his 10 lakh Government job provision with a 19 lakh figure. At the same time he was also successful in coming out of the shadow of his father and ward off the baggage of history. He took the entire poll campaign on his shoulders and one is sure would not have disappointed his father even.
Yet, another young leader who made his presence felt but more on the negative side is the young Lok Jan Shakti Party (LJSP) president, Mr Chirag Paswan. It is still an enigma as to why did he break ranks with the NDA in Bihar but remained part of it in Delhi. And why did BJP silently accept this arrangement. The answer lies in the manner in which the LJSP could make a dent in JD (u) camp that helped BJP gain the big brother status.
Like Mr Tejashwi but for different reasons he was forced to go to the elections without his illustrious father, Mr Ram Vilas Paswan who recently breathed his last. In his case, even if he has managed to hog limelight, he will still have to prove his acumen for which the leader in his late thirties has ample time.
The villain of this election turned out to be the Congress. In the ultimate analysis it can be safely said that it was ingenuine in its demand for 70 seats and ultimately winning only 19. It clearly was a case of biting more than what Congress could chew. The party has lost a golden chance to rediscover and reinvigorate itself. Once again the same story of poor management, lack of leadership and coordination and, of course, allegations of corruption in distributing the mandate are flying thick and high.
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