Anil Anand
What does the coming Assembly elections in five States hold for the Bharatiya Janata Party? In the aftermath of Bihar debacle despite a high-pitch and high-octane campaign it will not be out place to perceive this round to be the most crucial. It is crucial from the point of view of sustaining the Narendra Modi ‘jadu’ and equally crucial for restoration of credibility of the newly anointed party president Amit Shah.
An ideal situation for the Modi-Shah duo is to expect an impressive if not a sterling performance in Assam, Kerala, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu and Puducherry. In these states barring Assam the BJP has bare minimal presence so to fathom that the Modi juggernaut mow down everything to emerge victorious would be nothing less than expecting moon.
The common bet for BJP in all these states is looking for suitable allies. Suitable in terms of winning seats in areas and sections of the society which are either inimical to the policies of the saffron brigade or out of its reach!
No doubt that BJP is strong in certain areas of Assam which is reflected in the seven Lok Sabha seats which the party won in 2014, of course riding the Modi wave. But forming the Government would entail a pan-Assam presence which the BJP lacks and hence the need for proper allies and a winning combination.
The BJP has an edge with a privilege of strong anti-incumbency of Congress Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi’s 15 year rule which he dismisses outrightly. Translating this anti-incumbency factor, if any, into votes and seats is a major challenge which the BJP is currently confronted with.
In a House of 126, the Muslim population effects, directly or indirectly, 45 seats of which 35 seats are under their direct influence. This dilemma of the BJP is worst confounded by the party’s negligible presence in Lower Assam and also among tea workers though it has made some inroads into the latter section. Tea workers were once considered the bastion of Congress. The grand old party’s complacency in taking them far-granted gave an opening to the arch rival BJP. This is another matter that the Mr Gogoi realising his mistake has activated his machinery on this front.
So the need for allies!
The party has already entered into an alliance with the Bodo Peoples Front which has 12 seats in the present House and is expected to retain the chunk if not improve upon that. But more crucial will be the outcome of the BJP’s ongoing talks with the Assam Gana Parishad. The AGP could hold the key to resolving BJP’s dilemma in terms of its absence in many areas of the states and more crucial in winning some seats influenced by Muslims.
The talks between BJP and AGP are currently on. And in all probability there should not be much problem in stitching an alliance between the two despite a section not averse to opening channels with Congress as well. Given the fact that the BJP has not much influence in 60 to 65 Assembly seats on its own, only firm and proper alliances could give it a chance to form a Government. In this the AGP holds a key position and realising this advantageous position, the party leadership is giving torrid time to the BJP in firming up an agreement. A disagreement would mean serious problems for the BJP.
On the other side Congress strategy is quite a contrast. Notwithstanding the fact that incumbency could spoil its party it has decided to go alone. There were initial reports that the party was trying to work out a tie up with All India United Democratic Front, a predominantly Minority centric party, headed by perfume king and Lok Sabha MP Badruddin Ajmal. But the fear that it might have to surrender certain Muslim dominated seats in its area of influence deterred Mr Gogoi from sewing the alliance.
There is no denying the fact that Mr Ajmal would hold the trump card in the ultimate scheme of things. The fact that his party has three MPs and 18 MLAs presently adds to his significance. This could be gauged from the fact that even the BJP is seeking some kind of a secret pact with him that could help the party in the post-poll scenario.
Mr Gogoi is confident of beating the anti-incumbency factor a fourth time and has summarily dismissed the idea of a “mahaghatbandhan” on the lines of Bihar. Instead, he has propagated the fanciful idea of a “maha understanding” with the like-minded parties. The obvious reference is to the transfer of votes with an ultimate aim of defeating the BJP. “We would ensure that wherever Congress cannot win, the votes are transferred to someone who could defeat the BJP nominee. And would expect the same from other like-minded parties,” he said.
Alliances apart a big issue at hand in these elections will be the recently signed boundary agreement with Bangladesh. Assam is the only state bordering Bangladesh which has ceded territory while other North Eastern states in this range have gained. This issue has attained emotional overtones and on top of that selective approach of the NDA Government at the centre in granting citizenship to Bengali population, who crossed over to India from Bangladesh from time to time, on religious lines has split the society on religious lines.
It is going to be a Narendra Modi versus Tarun Gogoi contest with Badruddin Ajmal having the potential to rock any of the two boats.
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