Dr Sudershan Kumar
As we are striding forward into the 21st century, the conventional war fare system is becoming meaningless and incompatible with the realities and connotations of the conflicts of this century. A significant paradigm shift is evident against the backdrop of changing world scenario with hybrid war fare becoming more apt and appropriate. The rising interest in this hybrid warfare can be attributed to its capabilities to cause maximum damage to the adversary with minimum use of conventional ways of war and minimal efforts.The term hybrid war is not new but over the years due to various technological advancements many new “normals” have been added to make it more result oriented. So what is actually hybrid war fare? What are the challenges around the globe and particularly in south Asia in the perspective of hybrid warfare? Are nations fully equipped to face these new emerging challenges? But firstly we need to know that the word ‘war’ is generally defined as an armed conflict between two or multiple nations for fulfillment of their mission against their adversaries either for territorial gains or for establishment of supremacy. So it is a remarkable trinity composed of volume and hatred, chance and probability and also depends on the military might and the government. These features have been the part of war since ages. But hybrid war is a military strategy which employs political and blends conventional war fare, irregular war fare and cyber war artifical intelligence and robotics with influencing methods such as fake news, diplomacy engaging agencies for false propaganda, economic war fare including economic sanctions, trade tariff and interventions in foreign elections etc.The extended hybrid also include intelligence sharing, civil affairs, psychological operations and interagency civilian capabilities. Hence the hybrid warfare is an intricate and tangled mesh which requires more means than traditional weapons which military possesses. Therefore in the new millennium the hybrid war fare threat is going to be more predominant as advancements in technologies have added new verticals. Also the war in new millennium is going to be multifold, intense, very brief and highly technology oriented.
The hybrid war fare with new normals, will play a key role in winning the future wars. As per reports available, even the chief of army staff in one of the seminars did mention that tanks and air crafts are in a way out in the same way as “Soni Walk Man” was made redundant with newer and newer technologies. Over the years many countries have resorted to hybrid war fare. The most quoted examples of present time are Vietnam war, conflict between Israel & Iran supported Hezbollah group, Russian action in Ukraine and many others. Besides non state actors such as Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) have also used hybrid war fare tactics against against Iraqi military.In south Asia, India enjoys unique position. Its has around14798 km long land border shared with six nations viz china (3380km), Bangladesh (4097 km), Pakistan (3320km) Nepal (1758 km), Myanmar (1643 km) and Bhutan (600km). Both western neighbor Pakistan & Northern neighbour China have perceptional issues with India. They have thus formed nexus against India. One treats India as its eternal enemy whereas the other considers India as a competitor in economic and trade arenas. Significantly, China also has expansionist designs along the line of actual control (LAC).Hence the real hybrid war fare threat is more from China as compared to that of Pakistan.It is also true that Pakistani army ,its inter service intelligence agency (ISI) has waged covert war against India using insurgents,clerics disgruntled youths at different locations in union territory of Jammu and Kashmir. Pak army resorted to this tactics of hybrid war after suffering humiliating and crushing defeat in 1947,1965 and 1977 conventional wars with India.
So Pak military adopted policy of bleeding India with thousands cuts through multi pronged approach. First and foremost was destruction of Sufism culture in Kashmir valley by propagating Wahhabi Islam. Pak army its inter service intelligence agency (ISI) has been extensively using various communication means such as radio, TV channels, printed literature, internet, Watts app groups and fake news for maligning and brain washing the innocent Kashmiri youths. At the same time they have also been able to spread Fundamentalism,Radicalization and Fanaticism in certain section of society in Kashmir valley.Second,the Pak army is pushing well trained foreign Jihadis, Mujahideen and hard core terrorists to union territory of Jammu& Kashmir not only for vitiating peaceful environment of Kashmir valley but also for targeting security installations and selective killings of innocent Kashmiris.Their aim is to generate anti India feelings and also create psychological pressure among peace loving Kashmiri masses.
Third, Pakistani agencies are pumping lot of money through hawala channels and other means for creating unrest in Kashmir valley and many of Pakistan proxy and stone pelters are on their pay rolls.Their intention is to keep the pot of unrest boiling for international attraction.The money is also utilized for spreading Wahhabi Islam. Fourth, over the years Military junta in Pakistan has nurtured large number of terror outfits, which are operating in India & Afghanistan notably among them are Lashkar -e- Taiba (LeT), Jaish-e- Mohammad, Hizbul Mujahideen, Taliban and many others out fits. Pak military junta is reeling under the cloud of false hallucination that in case of war they will use this option to nuke India without realizing the severe repercussions they will have to face in view of collateral damage after India’s massive retaliation. It is true that Pak military junta is doing this at the behest of China. Because China feels threatened with emerging economic and military power of India and thus resorts to hybrid tactics. China uses Pak as Proxy as a low cost option against India. Therefore, China provides moral , diplomatic, political support and military hard ware to Pakistan on the name of friendship. If one analyses the Indo China relations, it seems quite evident that the relation between the two giant neighbours has not been cordial. Underneath the disguise of friendship, there is a constant undercurrent of tension, dissociation and discard. Over the last seven decades, Chinese leader ship has always adopted double standards in dealing with India. Their expansionist and aggressive postures are evident time and again. Recent incidents of flare up along LAC especially at Sikkim sector and at Ladakh sector are the live examples of these. More so, after getting completely isolated in view of the current Covid-19 pandemic ,Dragon has resorted to an aggressive posture with India at LAC and with countries at south China sea.
Hence, against the backdrop of the present scenario, India has to be vigilant from both China and Pakistan with a constant menace of hybrid war looming over us. In general hybrid threats are countered in three ways. First and foremost in tackling hybrid warfare, we ought to under stand the situational awareness and the hybrid normals, being deployed by adversary. Secondly, establishment of deterrence thresh hold in the form of capability, capacity, communication and credibility.Thirdly and most importantly, is the response in the form defence or calibrated offence. But more pertinently, the decision on strategy concerning the type of response depends on the will power,bold decisions and spine of political leadership, who are at the helm of affairs in the Government. Here it needs a very vociferous mention that the present Modi Government has adopted a “calibrated offensive strategy” against our hostile western and northern neighbours The massive retaliation against cease fire violations along LOC, preemptive strikes on terror launch pads, surgical strikes by army and Balakot air strike by Indian Air Force against Pakistan’s misdeeds at Uri and Pulwama are the glaring examples of Indian military might. Parallelly Modi government has also demonstrated its strong will power to counter nefarious and expansionist design of Chinese People Liberation army(PLA) along the LAC. There fore in new millennium, hybrid war fare threat is going to be manifold and will be highly technologically oriented. New Normals in various forms viz Cyber war fare,Space weapons,Economic war fare and unconventional war fare including bio war fare need to be adequately addressed by developing indigenous technologies. Even the handling of Covid-19 pandemic has exposed the ill preparedness of most advanced nations around the globe. Therefore it is a high time for security agencies and others now, who are at the helm of affairs to prepare the country to counter “new emerging normals”of hybrid war fare through indigenous development of critical and advanced technologies. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s mantra of “Atma Nirbharta” (self Reliance) for dealing with Covid-19 pandemic is equally applicable in the area of defence of our nation. It is also true that Modi government has already initiated many steps in this direction but the road is quite long and a lot more is required to be done. Few steps in this direction are- first and fore most the appointment of General Bipen Rawat as first Chief of Defence staff to bring complete synergy concerning modernization related issues between the three services. Second, the army’s new and innovative “Tour to Duty” proposal for resurgence of nationalism and patriotism among the youth of country will prove to be a winner in the long way to prepare the society to counter new millennium challenges. Under this scheme youth once selected will perform combat duties for a three year period with incentives from army.
This will certainly shape an individual ‘s persona and facilitate inclusion of a more productive life style for future work. Further to augment the above mission, the armed forces should give priority to young minds of school and colleges, who have enrolled them selves in National Cadet Corps(NCC) as cadets.As per the data available their number is around 1.15 million.Government should also look in to active engagement of ex servicemen who retire from armed forces in large number with service liability of five years. They are between the age group of 35 to 40 years. As on date this highly trained man power is underutilized in private security,village defence committee and for private jobs.Their services can be better utilized for dealing with internal security challenges. Lastly but most significantly, it is crucial to identify the technologies for countering new normals of hybrid war threats, adopt a consortium approach for their indigenous development in tune with prime minister’s mantra of self reliance. Also fixation of responsibility at each stage from development to production of all stake holders and evolution of a transparent road map to avoid time delay cost over run is important.The author is of the view that all these measures are absolutely essential to counter future hybrid war challenges in south Asia.
(The author is former Director General Special Secretary DRDO, MOD GoI)
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