NEW DELHI, Apr 8:
The Indian Air Force (IAF)’s falling end strength combined with its troubled acquisition and development programmes, is threatening India’s air superiority over its rapidly modernising rivals China and Pakistan, an acclaimed scholar in Carnegie Endowment has cautioned.
Asserting that the Indian air dominance was vital for deterrence stability in southern Asia and for preserving the strategic balance in the wider Indo-Pacific region, Ashley J Tellis, a senior associate at Carnegie said, adding, “Resolving India’s air power crisis, therefore, should be a priority for New Delhi.”
Waring about crisis brewing in the IAF comes at time when India’s fighter force is said to be well short of its sanctioned squadron strength with many of IAF’s frontline aircraft facing obsolescence.
Mr Tellis has been closely following the equation of air power in the South Asian region. “China and Pakistan field about 750 advanced air defence/multirole fighters against the IAF’s 450-odd equivalents. The airfield infrastructure limitations in Tibet, however, prevent China from bringing all of its air capabilities to bear against India. Yet after 2025, China could be able to deploy anywhere between 300 and 400 sophisticated aircraft against India, in addition to the 100 to 200 advanced fighters likely to exist in Pakistan by then,” he said in a recently published paper.
The IAF’s desire for 42-45 squadrons by 2027 — some 750-800 aircraft — is compelling, if India is to preserve the airpower superiority it has enjoyed in southern Asia since 1971.
He said the IAF’s likelihood of reaching its 2027 goal with a high proportion of advanced fighters is poor. It was stymied by serious constraints on India’s defence budget, the impediments imposed by the acquisition process, the meager achievements of the country’s domestic development organisations, the weaknesses of the higher defence management system, and India’s inability to reconcile the need for self-sufficiency in defence production with the necessity of maintaining technological superiority over rivals.
The IAF was attempting to reach its desired end strength by acquiring the Tejas Mark 1 to beef up its lightweight segment, filling out the remainder of its Medium Multirole Combat Aircraft (MMRCA) purchase in its medium-weight segment, and continuing with the Su-30MKI acquisition and the PAK-FA co-development programs to sustain its heavyweight segment.
“All three tiers of the IAF are currently in trouble,” said Mr Tellis. According to his assessment, the Tejas Mark 1 is handicapped by significant technological deficiencies; the prospects for expanding the MMRCA component to compensate for the Tejas’s shortcomings are unclear; and the IAF’s reluctance to proceed fully with the PAK-FA programme could undermine its fifth-generation fighter ambitions. In this backdrop, the expert has recommended that India needs to safeguard its regional air superiority over both Pakistan and China by mustering the requisite end strength and enhancing its extant operational advantages.
He suggested that the IAF should revisit some aspects of its current approach. “It should be cautious about expanding the Tejas acquisition beyond six squadrons and consider enlarging the MMRCA component with the cheapest fourth-generation-plus Western fighter available. India should also reassess the decision to develop the Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft indigenously and avoid weakening the collaboration with Russia on the PAK-FA programme,” he said. (UNI)
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