Col J P Singh
In April 2015, Chinese President Xi, during his state visit to Pakistan, announced that China would invest 46 billion $ in energy and infrastructure projects in Pakistan as part of China Pakistan Economic Corridor. The focus, he said, will be on building a wide network of roads, railways and pipelines, 3,000 Kms from China’s Xinjiang province to Gwadar in Pakistan. The basic idea behind this was knitting together of all developmental activities in Chinese financing. The fact that CPEC is said to have been symbolically operationalised in November 2016, within 18 months, when the Chinese products were transported by trucks from China to Gwadar Port via Karakoram Highway (KKH) for further shipment to West Asia proves that China attaches top priority to this corridor.
Looking outwards from Doklam, where there is a virtual war like situation, we find CPEC is another aggression launched by China in our Northwest to undermine rising India. CPEC passes through Indian territories at China-India-Pakistan tri-junction without Indian consent. While the Doklam was contested by the Indian Army at the outset, no such option was exercised in case of CPEC thus rendering India helpless. What India could or should do to counter its encirclement from the West is nightmarish for New Delhi. Some posturing, if not indulgence, is needed to contest Chinese ingress into Indian territories lest it is totally prohibitive.
For China, CPEC provides it a crucial road link to reach Arabian Sea through Pakistani deep water Port of Gwadar and hence being pushed vigorously. Pakistan calls it a great economic game changer and hence fully supports it. Pakistan’s civilian and military leadership tells that CPEC will solve all its problems including chronic electricity shortages, improve upon an aging road and rail infrastructure, provide a fillip to Pakistan’s economy and knit an isolated Pakistan to a new Chinese led geopolitical order. For India, it is obvious extension of throttle India policy and hence a grave security threat. Since CPEC enters Indian territories at the confluence of Central, West & East Asia, it blocks Indian access to these regions through its own territory. It is also crucial because it infringes upon the tribal areas against the wishes of the people who are J&K state subjects and Indian citizens. Moreover it strengthens Pak hold on disputed areas and dilutes Indian claim.
Pakistan and China are giving top priority to the ground work & safety and security of the workers for which China has brought its own work force and army in Pakistan. This factor raises more questions. The plan envisages a deep and broad-based penetration into most sectors of Pakistan’s economy, society and culture. Chinese companies will be given easy access to the exploitation of natural resources of the country with tax and excise exemptions. Local industry will have to compete with Chinese companies. The CPEC will be used to transport minerals & raw material extracted from Pakistan and POJK. It might be used to import oil and minerals from West Asia & Africa to bypass Malacca if such contingency arises. First beneficiary of the CPEC is China, as the CPEC will support its slowing down economy. Moreover it will provide China a strategic and military edge in the important Af-Pak region and in the Indian Ocean.
Analysts feel that Gwadar will provide a strong Naval Base for the Chinese to play an important strategic role in the Indian Ocean region. China is said to have already taken control of the Port and Chinese ships and submarines control the security of Gwadar Port. For the protection of Chinese workers and the CPEC, besides the presence of PLA, Pakistan has raised a special division of army called a Special Security Division. There is resentment and unrest among the people of Gilgit-Baltistan. Unrest has been building up since the construction of KKH. Violence is seen all along the corridor. Chinese working on the CPEC face terrorist attacks, especially in Balochistan. China blames Indian intelligence agency RAW for the unrest. Hence Pakistan has established a vast intelligence & security networks along the long distance of the Economic Corridor. Privacy and human rights of locals along the corridor are undermined giving rise to instability and violence.
There are various other reasons to be skeptical about the purported CPEC. The Northernmost part of CPEC is the KKH. From Kashgar in Xinjiang Province, it cuts through the Karakoram Range towards Hunza (Gilgit-Baltistan) at the Khunjerab Pass. Xinjiang is known for Uighur Muslim insurgency against China. Gilgit-Baltistan, a Shiite majority area, is basically part of erstwhile princely state of Jammu & Kashmir and is disputed, oppressed and unstable. Legally Pakistan can’t allow China to construct a highway through it. Therefore people of Gilgit-Baltistan are protesting against the CPEC more because it affects ecology, human rights and demography of the area. There are protests, which are ruthlessly oppressed. CPEC is also seen as visa free entry for Chinese into POJK. Construction of CPEC through the Indian territory, even though disputed, is an act of aggression. Although India is patiently observing but nothing stops it taking some action including sabotage for which the ground is fertile.
In the South, CPEC terminates at Gwadar Port in Pakistan’s insurgency raven Balochistan. Baloch resent this project because it will change the demography of the area. Ever since the construction began, there have been numerous attacks on Chinese personnel. The population of the area, which is .7 million, is expected to rise to 2 million by the time project is completed most of which would be Chinese and non-Baloch Pakistanis. Therefore both China & Pakistan are worried the way threat to CPEC is shaping up. Pakistan is getting indebted to China whereas China is bearing the brunt of growing militancy with the prospects of sabotage abetted by India.
All these issues raise salient questions about the utility of CPEC. If CPEC is not an economically viable route for actual commerce, what purpose does it serve? Many analyst argue that CPEC is, in reality, a military move to counter Indian rise in Asia. Economists perceive it as quest for Pak natural resources. Some however consider it as an alternate supply route for China should it face an embargo in Indian Ocean during a military conflict. Such scenario stares at China’s face during Trump regime. Even if CPEC is not economically sustainable, Chinese goal of creation of a Chinese Naval outpost in Gwadar is achieved and Pakistan deceived.
India is monitoring CPEC drama unfold with growing alarm. Indian concern is that Chinese presence in Gilgit-Baltistan and the passage of CPEC through it will affect status of Jammu and Kashmir dispute. CPEC provides Pakistan and China a firm grip over Gilgit-Baltistan which undermines Indian emergence as an Asian giant. In the South, it threatens Baloch identity. In both the cases, the situation compels India to intervene. Whenever India intervenes, China will bring its Marine Corps and Naval Vessels in Gwadar, threatening Indian Navy in the Indian Ocean. It is turning out to be a catch 22 situation for all parties.
China stationed a Division of PLA in Gilgit-Baltistan in 2010. More troops keep coming as the project extends. When the CPEC finally comes through, China’s main objective of encircling India and colonising Pakistan will stand established whereas the economic part of it will lose its grandeur. Hence CPEC is an illusory economic corridor. Actually it is a military project. Apart from India, US & Afghanistan are also against it. It can lead to new polarization and tensions in the region. Earlier the Pakistan realizes, the better for the region.
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