Prof A N Sadhu
The unprecedented election victory of AAP is as big a surprise for the political pundits as for the people, in general. Even the experts of exit polls have not been able to gauge this trend. In a hotly fought election , it was unimaginable that such a result will be there. I am sure even the APP leaders must have received it with a great surprise. A new political party has struck its roots and shaken the citadel of established political parties so ferociously cannot be treated as an ordinary or as a usual event; although one thing became clear that Indian electorate has become highly mature and is least effected by political propaganda. The electorate makes its own assessment and boldly exercises its right to vote for the candidate of its choice. What led to AAP’s historical victory , may be examined in the light of following factors:
1.Mistakes made by BJP 2. The AAP’s informal connectivity with the electorate. 3. The debacle of Congress. 4. The lofty promises. 5. Public response.
The BJP’s political strategists made quite a few avoidable mistakes. The people formed a perception that the party leaders are either frustrated for not getting the required response from the electorate or the party leadership is over confident of sailing through because these elections were being held in the backdrop of Maharashtra and Haryana, where it had done quite well. The elections to the assembly should not have been delayed. It sent out the message that BJP is not responsive to the problems of the people and is waiting for an appropriate time to reap political gains. This also provided sufficient cushion to the AAP and Congress to carry out anti-BJP campaign. The induction of KiranBedi in the party and nominating her as the CM-candidate the very next day in violation of the Party’s norm of not doing so before elections, sent a wrong signal among the voters. Why should such a thing happen at such a time was inexplicable to the people. Did it convey that BJP’s cadre leaders were not of CM-material? Did it go well with the party workers? Did they think that her induction will blunt the Kejriwal effect because both emerged from the same public ground. Was it meant to instil the sense of security among the women and get their votes enblock?
The negative propaganda did become a significant component of the election campaign. This portrayed the candidates as weak contestants because it was felt that the candidates do not have enough of personal merits to market and that is why they are focussing on the weaknesses of their opponents. That the government has controlled inflation was not acknowledged by the Delhites. Fall in oil prices was attributed to international factors and not to the good governance. The common man was neither influenced by the fact that the nation’s image has enhanced in the world countries because of successful foreign policy initiatives launched by the Government. Political strategists should have assessed the uneasiness among the people because of perceived limited performance by the government on the common man’s front-price inflation, women security, employment and so on-and should have spent more time on reviving his faith in the initiatives the government has taken to get the common man a lasting reprieve from the problems, he is faced with. BJP made a wrong assessment of public response and utterly failed to gauge the public mood. On the other hand the AAP showed the down to earth pragmatism in building an effective liaison with the electorate.
AAP carried door to door campaign. Its groundworkers established an informal connectivity with the people. They reached almost everyone, in any corner of Delhi and interacted with them cordially. They did not reach them as party workers but as their own representatives, which made a big difference. The AAP volunteers successfully sold the gains of 49 days governance. The people had felt it, perceived it and experienced it and they got convinced that AAP alone can address their problems. AAP also convincingly conveyed to the electorate the nine months’ non-performance of the government. The campaign against the government that it has promoted corporate capitalism and not cared for the common man was effectively conveyed to the people, particularly the weaker sections of population. The AAP leaders and the workers fully identified themselves with the common man of Delhi. The BJP was caught off guard on every front. People were not impressed by big rallies but by individual contact of AAP workers. The debacle of Congress did definitely help APP as against BJP. The promises made by AAP were attractive and intimately connected with the common man’s lot.
Some of the reasons that led to the rout of Congress and BJP have not been discussed in detail. It is hard to agree with the argument that people voted for AAP only because of its lofty promises. There are a few other reasons for people not voting for BJP or Congress. There is a strong under current throughout the length and breadth of the country against the traditional political parties. The impression among the electorate is that these parties have not kept a clean image by accommodating people who enjoy money power and muscle power. The people not with impeccable credentials have been given the party tickets and later on plump portfolios as well. The corruption crossed all the limits and all traditional parties, both, national and regional, failed to check it. There is all round disgust against these parties and people do yearn for a change. The three basic objectives of Indian economic planning,viz, eradication of poverty, removal of unemployment and reducing disparities in the distribution of income and wealth; have so far not been achieved and it is greatly agitating the common man’s mind. In fact the disparities have become sharper during the recent years resulting into creation of a few islands of affluence in the ocean of misery and deprivation. AAP offered a hope and people took it for a change.
There is also a very strong impression that NDA government is pro corporate capitalism which does not meet the needs of common man because the trickledown mechanism does not work in the country for the reason that institutional reforms are stalled because of infirmities in the legal system. Hence people look for a transparent politico-administrative arrangement capable of plugging the leakages and promoting enhanced investment in the people welfare schemes. The impression that only weaker sections of population will vote for AAP has proved wrong. Even middleclasses have voted for AAP because they also do not entertain the rise of corporate capitalism at the cost of benefits which should trickle down to the masses. Unless it has happened, how can one explain 67/70 phenomenon. Political arrogance is also alleged. Human psyche is a complex phenomenon and it works on a number of perceptions and inferences. That is why it will not be right to say that it is only lofty promises of AAP which attracted the electorate to it. Lot more has weighed in the minds of voters before pressing the button on EVM.
Implications: The emergence of AAP is definitely a new phenomenon. A new political party, a new approach and a new hope. That a party of two years managing a historical victory and causing a distressful displacement of long standing political parties, cannot be taken lightly. In fact it has made its presence in the Lok Sabha as well. Whether we look at last year’s national elections or this year’s Delhi elections, it is discernible that winds of change are sweeping the country. Both the parties voted to power have fought on development agenda. One showed some results in 49 days, the other is yet consolidating its programmes to show the perceptible results on ground. The electorate is watching and they know when to deliver their verdict. A new awakening is there and it will make an impact. There are going to be some elections in the states, in near future. Delhi will make its impact. What will be its exact form, will emerge slowly. People are impatient and want results on ground. Youth is watching and venturing to come forward and address the problems of the people. Delhi will be a model, impediments notwithstanding. How much will it catch up, in other states, will have to be seen.
As for the AAP is concerned, it has spoken much less or perhaps not spoken so far, on the policy front. No political model can sustain itself without a well thought-out political and economic policy. There cannot be any deviation from the political model adopted in the country after independence. There , however, can be changes in economic thinking.
The country essentially adopted a socialistic pattern if not an outright socialist model in the post-independence period till early 1990’s when under the stewardship of Dr.Manmohan Singh, a new economic policy was adopted with a more liberal regime shifting from import-substitution to export promotion. Although this bold initiative steered the country through a very difficult economic situation but, over time, it has tended to widen the economic disparities, both, between urban- rural divide as also among the rich and the poor. Again trickledown mechanism failed to let the gains of growth percolate down to all sections of society in an equitable manner. AAP may, therefore, tend to revert to the socialist model with some policy corrections and implementation modifications. If it so happens, it will initiate a fresh debate on nation’s economic policy. The Delhi phenomenon has not escaped the attention of international media, either. In a globalised system, every emergent situation is analysed and its impact is felt in a small or a big measure, depending upon its assessment at the international level. The success of AAP will ignite a new hope in the political evolution of the country. The political maturity demands that there should be no wait for AAP to crumble under its own weight, there should, instead, be a collaborative effort to develop Delhi as a world class city state.
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