Excelsior Correspondent
JAMMU, Dec 23: Regional environment involving Iran, Afghanistan and Pakistan is in a major flux and can have serious implications for the future security on J&K.
This was one of the consensus of the discussion on “Conflict Early Warning: Regional Security and Implications for J&K” organised by the Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies (IPCS) New Delhi, J&K Regional Branch of the Indian Institute of Public Administration (IIPA) and Central University of Jammu.
Speakers and participants from J&K and New Delhi discussed the early warnings that could be observed from what is happening in the region. Prof PR Chari, Ranjit Gupta, Dr D. Suba Chandran and Sushant Sareen discussed the regional security developments in Iran, Afghanistan and Pakistan, and their implications for J&K, while Dr S.S. Bloeria, Dr Ashok Bhan, Prof Rekha Choudhry and Dr Shujaat Bukhari discussed the recent developments within J&K and their future implications.
The importance of recent developments in Iran, withdrawal of international security forces in Afghanistan and the change in guard in Pakistan military were discussed first. It was highlighted that ever since the new President Rohanitook over Iran after the elections, he has indicated his willingness to work with the West, especially the US. Though there were questions on whether the nuclear deal agreed between Iran and the US would go through, it was agreed that the deal is an interim one as of now, and it will eventually go through, with the process being slow and painful, at times taking one step forward and two steps backward.
On Afghanistan, it was generally agreed that the Afghan national security forces are relatively better trained and equipped, and the ground situation in fighting militancy and the strength of Taliban has substantially changed. Many believe that the Indian Government should consider the request from President Karzai to support the Afghan security forces in fighting militancy by providing infrastructural and transport support material. Both the speakers and participants agreed that insecurity and instability within Pakistan is more worrisome.
The discussion on J&K focussed on internal developments within the state. There was a general consensus that while India has been blaming Pakistan for its intervention in J&K and aiding terrorism elsewhere in the country, not much has been done in terms of pursuing a coherent strategy in addressing them.
Though the terrorism has been on the decline, the nature of violence in the last two years seems to be changing. Beheading of soldiers, killing of security personnel in Valley, militant attacks in Samba attack and the increasing number of hartals are highlighted as early warnings which need to be address as Pakistan will try to vitiate the security environment in run up to the Lok Sabha and Assembly elections. The regional and communal tensions also came in for comment and it was suggested that the political parties must exercise restraint while electioneering so that communal and regional passions are not raised.
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