Brij Bhardwaj
‘Will it be or will it not be’ looks like the scenario emerging for India alliance in the upcoming polls for Lok Sabha in 2024. India alliance may come to some understanding in few states but will fight against each other in many states.
To start with, India alliance was hoping to complete the process of seat adjustment by December 31, 2023, but so far the process has just started. The scenario emerging is that understanding will probably be reached in states like Bihar, Tamil Nadu and Maharashtra. However, there are many hurdles in Maharashtra with Shiv Sena insisting on same number of seats which they had contested in 2019, though their strength is reduced considerably with rebels deserting them and supporting BJP.
In north India, where BJP wins majority of its seats India alliance is finding it more difficult to come to an understanding. For instance Congress party and Aam Aadmi party have sharp differences. While in Delhi they may reach an understanding, it would be difficult in case of Punjab and Haryana. The units of two parties in Punjab are not keen on an alliance. Congress wants majority of seats in Punjab as they had performed well in 2019 Lok Sabha poll while Aam Aadmi Party feels it has done well in Assembly poll where Congress had performed poorly should be the basis.
Congress is also not keen to share space with AAP in states like Haryana, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh where AAP is trying to spread it wings. In the state of UP, which sends 80 members to Lok Sabha, an alliance can be effective only if besides Congress, Samajwadi Party and Bahujan Samaj Party also join. Bahujan Samaj party leader Mayawati is willing to join only if she is declared as Prime Ministerial face of India alliance for which there are no takers.
Other problem states are West Bengal and Kerala. The two members of India alliance CPI-M and Trinamool Congress are not prepared to have any understanding in West Bengal. Mamata Banerjee is prepared to have an understanding with the Congress Party, but the number of seats offered to them is not acceptable to Congress. In case of Kerala, Congress and CPI-M are two major players with BJP having little presence it will be a contest between two allies of India alliance.
In states like Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh no member of India alliance has any presence, so Congress will have to fight on its own. Same is the position in Telangana and Andhra Pradesh, where Congress will have to fight regional parties and BJP. So for all practical purposes India alliance may challenge BJP in a few States only. As such there will be little impact on the outcome of poll in 2024 of opposition parties coming together in India alliance.
North East is another region where India alliance will draw limited support and Congress will have to fight alone against BJP. As such there may be much noise about two viewpoints being presented to the electorate to make a choice, but for practical purposes it will be a fight between BJP and Congress in majority of states and in few states regional parties will challenge BJP.
There may be lot of space devoted in newspapers to two alliances NDA and India poised against each other in poll for Lok Sabha in 2024, but for all practical purposes it will be a challenge of regional parties in few states and in general a fight between BJP and Congress. A fight, in which BJP is far ahead. With impact of Ram Mandir in Ayodhya, impact of welfare programme and a well knit organisation at its command few have doubts about the outcome. There is talk of having Chief Minister of Bihar Nitish Kumar as convenor of alliance and a Prime Minister face, but there are sharp differences making it difficult.
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