Harsha Kakar
The Indian foreign secretary, Vikram Misri, recently visited Bangladesh and apart from meeting his counterpart, Mohammad Touhid Hossain, also met the head of the interim Government, Mohammad Yunus. As per the MEA readout, he highlighted India’s support for a democratic, stable, peaceful, progressive and inclusive Bangladesh. In addition, he conveyed India’s concerns on issues related to safety and welfare of minorities, as also attacks on cultural, religious and diplomatic properties.
Was there more to the visit than what meets the eye. It is likely that the visit was also intended to convey a firm message from the Indian PM that the approach of the Mohammad Yunus Government towards minorities is unacceptable and the internal scenario, including the growing anti-India sentiment, must change. A few indicators post the visit display that this was strongly expressed.
Firstly, soon after the visit, the interim Government in Bangladesh formally confirmed that there have been 88 incidents of communal violence targeting minorities, mainly Hindus. The spokesperson added that 70 individuals have been arrested. There has, since then, been a reduction in coordinated attacks on minorities.
Secondly, possibly foreseeing India’s threat to reduce its subsidized provision of food supplies, as a means of precaution, Bangladesh announced its intent to diversify its imports. It announced plans to procure Onions, Potatoes and Sugar from Pakistan, apart from India.
Thirdly, the Arakan army of Myanmar, a Buddhist ethnic insurgent group, fighting the military junta has taken control of the 270 km Myanmar border with Bangladesh. While it immediately does not pose a threat to Bangladesh, it also pushes large numbers of Rohingyas into the country. Further, it closes an avenue for import of rice from Myanmar. Thus, the only source for Bangladesh would remain India.
India-Bangladesh ties were ideal, all territorial disputes resolved, trade flourishing and people to people contact existed. India was the destination for shopping and medical treatment. Since the overthrow of the Sheikh Hasina regime, a lot has changed.
Anti-India sentiment is on the rise amid calls for boycott of Indian products. An advisor to the Government and hardcore Islamist, Mahfuz Alam, released a map depicting West Bengal, Tripura and Assam as part of the country. The map was deleted a few hours later, however diplomatic damage was done.
Indian missions and cultural centres have been targeted. On Vijay Diwas, the interim Government’s law advisor,Asif Nazrul, mentioned, ‘India was merely an ally in this victory, nothing more,’ missing out the fact that the Pakistan army surrendered to Indian forces, which had spearheaded the operations. There was not a single Bangladeshi in the surrender photograph nor was Bangladesh permitted to hold Pakistani prisoners or try them for war crimes.
In contrast, the Vijay Diwas celebrations involving the armed forces on both sides were conducted in good faith and as per previous protocols. However, levels of attendance by Bangladeshi war veterans were low.
In parts of India too, anger against attacks on minorities in Bangladesh is visible. In Tripura, hospitals, hotels and restaurants have decided against hosting Bangladeshis. Protests against attacks on Hindus have taken place throughout the country.
Bangladesh has also sent a request through diplomatic channels for the extradition of Sheikh Hasina. It is unlikely to be honoured due to multiple reasons, including loopholes in the treaty itself, but would definitely impact ties.
Deteriorating ties between two close allies, despite India being careful in its public criticism, preferring silent diplomacy while keeping communication channels open, does not augur well for either nation. Bangladesh will need Indian support and assistance even if it is backed by China, US or Pak. This was evident when Yunus requested India for 50,000 tons of rice at discounted rates.
India should realize that the Sheikh Hasina regime is over and a very different Bangladesh has emerged, uncaring for its support in its battle for freedom as also throughout its existence. The current Islamists in Bangladesh are conveying the impression that India has interfered in their countries policies throughout its history and is therefore not a friend as it claims to be. It should be treated as an adversary.
Thus, the future would be tensions along the Indo-Bangladesh border. India’s main concerns will remain illegal immigration, support to NE terrorist groups and growing anti-India sentiment. Incidents of firing between border security forces would soon be a normal occurrence, especially as the BSF attempts to curb smuggling and prevent illegal immigration.
Many Bangladeshis residing illegally in India are also radicalized and would impact national security. Indian security agencies recently arrested members of the global terrorist group Ansarullah Bangla Team (ABT) which were running sleeper cells in India intending to target the Siliguri corridor. Security forces also arrested members of the LeT attempting to exfiltrate to Bangladesh.
There are unconfirmed reports of Pakistan moving terrorists to J and K through Bangladesh. The re-entry of Pakistan into Bangladesh, as also cancelation of requirement for Pakistanis to obtain security clearance, prior to applying for visa, opens doors for greater presence of the ISI to enhance anti-India activities in the NE. The porous Indo-Bangladesh border, despite being largely fenced, will remain a matter of concern.
India will have to contend with two unstable borders, Pakistan and Bangladesh. While only terrorists attempt to infiltrate from Pakistan, there would be increased infiltration of terrorists, Rohingyas and desperate Bangladesh is through the porous 4000 plus km border. Both nations will continue to harbour anti-India sentiments. This will bring both closer.
While Bangladesh will still seek Indian support and assistance, Pakistan is aware that it cannot bank on India. Both nations will collude on a common anti-India agenda, already visible with demands for restoring SAARC. Bangladesh, as against Pakistan, will have to tread carefully as it can only bank on India for most of its needs including electricity and food stocks.
China, which already has its inroads in Pakistan will now attempt the same in Bangladesh. While India has managed to ignore Pakistan and considers it a non-entity it would continue attempting to maintain ties with Dacca, hoping to push a change in its attitude. The US deep state, which forced the change in Bangladesh, has resulted in India being largely surrounded by three hostile states. Managing this will be a challenge for the Indian Government.
The author is Major General (Retd)
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