By Dr. Gyan Pathak
At the end of election campaign for the first phase of Vidhan Sabha Election in Jharkhand scheduled to be held on November 13, 2024 for 43 of 81-member Vidhan Sabha, INDIA bloc led by JMM seems to have an edge over BJP led NDA. Threefold identity politics – Jharkhandi vs non-Jharkhandi, Adivasi vs Outsiders, and Hindu vs Muslim – has emerged as the most influential issues that are likely to impact election outcome.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Union Home Minister Amit Shah extensively campaigned for the election raising the issue of Bangladeshi Muslim infiltration and tried to influence tribal votes saying that tribal population has be threatened by it, and the ruling JMM-Congress government in the state has been encouraging infiltration and protecting the infiltrators. This does not impact tribal communities of the state, since they have been in continuous conflict with outsiders who have been looting the resources of Jharkhand and damaging the Jharkhand culture., They see that those outsiders are the chief support base of the BJP in the state. For tribals, those outsiders are the people who are trying to divert tribal attention from themselves to the ‘Bangladeshi Muslim infiltrators’.
It is not a big deal for the tribal population, though they have other real concern from the OBC Mahto communities, who are Jharkhandi people, the largest one among the Sadans (non-tribal Jharkhandi). Mahtos have been demanding ST status for themselves, which BJP government at the Centre has been declining. Since, Mahtos, the 25 per cent of the population, have traditionally been BJP’s chief support base, and majority of them still supporting the BJP, tribal communities are apprehensive of a situation that they will have to lose their share of reservation if Mahtos are given ST status.
To divert attention from this, PM Modi and BJP leaders have been telling not only tribal, but also OBCs and STs that INDIA bloc has a plan to snatch their reservation to give it to Muslims. Their telling this has not greater impact on the ground level, since the tribal communities are strongly behind INDIA bloc.
As for Mahto community , they are divided in three groups in this election – the majority group is with BJP, and smaller groups are going with JLKM led by Jairam Mahto and JBKSS led by Sanjay Mehta. Large number of Mahtos are angry with the BJP since BJP leader Arjun Munda, the former Union Minister of Tribal Affairs, was against their demand for ST status.
BJP leaders raising their pitch on Bangladeshi Muslim infiltrators, however, seem to be working among the non-tribal caste Hindu communities, and even in larger section of OBC communities. Communal divide among large number of electorates can be felt across the constituencies in the state, with an overlapping by another identity politics of Jharkhandi’s vs non-Jharkhandis. Jharkhandi people across Sadan communities including caste Hindus and OBCs of the state have been demanding domicile privilege in jobs, which are scarce in the state. They see that outsiders are grabbing not only resources of Jharkhand but the jobs too.
Kodarma, Barkatha, Barhi and Barkagaon constituencies were won by BJP, IND, INC, INC respectively in the 2019 assembly election. The independent candidate won the Barkatha seat is now BJP candidate and hence a little edge over JMM candidate, but , RJD candidate is giving tough fight to the BJP in Kodarma. In Barhi and Bakagaon, INC seems to have upper hand.
Hazaribagh, Simaria and Chatra are witnessing tough contest among INC-BJP, JMM-BJP and RJD-LJP (RV). BJP had won Hazaribagh and Simaria in 2019, while Chatra seat was won by RJD. BJP may retain Hazaribagh, and RJD may retain Chatra. However, there is close contest in Simaria.
In East Singhbhum – JMM has upper hand in Baharagora, Ghatsila, Potka, and Jugsalai, the party had also won in 2019. However, in Jamshedpur East, INC and BJP candidates are pitted against each other in close contest. In Jamshedpur West, the contest is between INC and JD(U).
West Singhbhum, Chaibasa and Majhgaon seats were won by JMM in 2019, and this time too, the party seems to have an edge over BJP candidates. INC had won Jagannathpur in 2019, and it is in tough contest with BJP candidate this time. JMM had won Manoharpur and Chakradharpur in 2019, and is ahead of AJSU and BJP candidates this time also..
Seraikela-Kharsawan is of particular interest along with Singhbhum region due to the region being in Kolhan area from where former JMM leader Champai Soren has defected. JMM has upper hand in Ichagarh over AJSU, but in Seraikela JMM candidate Ganesh Mahali is facing a tough fight from Champai Soren, this time as BJP candidate. JMM is still stronger in Kharsawan than its closest rival BJP candidate.
BJP seems to be stronger in all seats in Ranchi barring only Tamar where JMM is stronger which it had won in 2019 too. BJP had had won Ranchi, Hatia, and Kanke, but Mandar was won by JVMP(which is now in BJP) in 2019, and they have still edge over INDIA bloc candidates. BJP is also stronger in Torpa and Khunti.
JMM is stronger in all three seats in Gumla –Sisai, Gumla, Bishunpur – which the party had also won in 2019.Assembly polls. In Simdega, Kolebira INC candidates are in tough electoral battle with BJP while it is facing a challenge from AJSU in Lohardaga.
In Manika, Latehar, Panki, Daltonganj, Bishrampur, Chhatarpur, Hussainabad, Garhwa and Bhawanathpur, BJP is giving very tough time to INDIA bloc candidates.
That way, the first phase of election in Jharkhand will be very closer with a bit edge in favour of INDIA bloc, which makes its position brighter in retaining its power in the state, if it maintains such a lead in the second phase when 38 seats would go to poll on November 20. (IPA S
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