By Nantoo Banerjee
Domestic issues often override international commitments in diplomacy. China’s preference of Kamala Harris to Donald Trump as the next US president may look unusual but not entirely illogical from the world’s second largest economy’s business point of view. China may not mind if such a possibility could enhance diplomatic discomfort to its ally, Russia, which has been fighting Ukraine to prevent its western neighbour from joining NATO. Under the leadership of President Joe Biden, the US has extended massive fund and military equipment support to Ukraine to face off the Russian assault head on in the last two years, making the US arms manufacturing industry a major gainer so far. A Trump victory could mean a US pull back forcing the end of the Ukraine war. But, going by past experience, it could also embitter China-US trade and diplomatic relations. Adversely, a Kamala Harris victory next month is most likely to escalate the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war diminishing the prospect of an early resolution of the bitter conflict.
The Russia-Ukraine war, leading to a host of the US-led NATO trade and financial sanctions on Russia, had brought China closer to Russia. Many feel that China is the single biggest beneficiary of the Russia-Ukraine war. For example, last year, Russia surpassed Saudi Arabia as China’s biggest oil supplier. China, the world’s largest crude oil importer, shipped 107.02 million tons of Russian crude, 24 percent more than its import in 2022. However, with the war spilling over to the third year China is concerned about maintaining its delicate balancing act between Russia and the West. While diplomatically China stood by Russia, it is yet to offer overt military support to Russia considering its possible implications on China’s global interests.
Although China, as also India, have been pushing for an early resolution of the Ukraine war, the communist regime appears to be more worried that Trump’s return as the next US president may lead to worsen its trade and diplomatic relations with the US, the single largest contributor to its massive annual trade surpluses that have been key to China’s economic and political strength over the years. Last year, of China’s global trade surplus of $823.2 billion, as much as $279.4 billion came from the US alone. According to media reports last week, a senior member of the Chinese national advisory body had said that the country would prefer Kamala Harris to Donald Trump as the next US president in view of the fact that bilateral ties deteriorated sharply during Trump’s presidency leading to serious confrontation. Trump’s threat to impose 60 percent tariffs on Chinese goods, if he gets elected, is worrying Beijing as it may have a severe impact on China’s economy which is bogged down with a slowdown. Obviously, China is probably more concerned about its self-interest than what happens to the Russia-Ukraine war.
On the contrary, India would like Trump to triumph to further improve its bilateral relations with the US, providing a big impetus to its economic and technological ambitions. Trump appears to be more favourable to India than Harris in the context of his pro-Russia and anti-China positions. However, Trump could be tough on trade relations and immigration policy with both China and India with which the US runs a deficit trade although the US trade deficit with China is several times more than that with India. As in his first term as US President, Trump’s immigration policy may not favour the Indian workforce, especially with regard to H-1B visa. Under a Trump administration, the Indo-US strategic partnership in defence and counter terrorism – often seen through the China prism – is expected to be further bolstered. India also needs the US help to counter the Pakistani terrorist activities in the newly formed state of Jammu and Kashmir and other parts of the country.
The US-India joint statement in June, 2017 after the meeting between President Trump and Prime Minister Modi at the White House said: “In marking 70 years of diplomatic relations between India and the United States, the leaders resolved to expand and deepen the strategic partnership between the countries and advance common objectives. Above all, these objectives include combating terrorist threats, promoting stability across the Indo-Pacific region, increasing free and fair trade, and strengthening energy linkages.” Interestingly, the US-India strategic ties in the coming years may also partly depend on how the China-India relationship evolves after the two sides pledged to rebuild the bilateral ties following an apex level meeting between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Xi Jinping during the Brics summit in Russia, last week.
Now, all eyes are set on the result of the US presidential election which will be held on November 5. China’s concerns are most likely to influence Chinese Americans in the US, who are eligible to vote. Although there isn’t much information about the present number of Chinese origin US citizens, in 2022 there were about 4.7 million Chinese Americans in the state, making up 19 percent of the Asian American population. Politically, they follow the diplomatic stance of Mainland China. Around 50 percent of all Chinese Americans live in California and New York. The latter has the largest Chinese American population with over half a million people. While 60 percent of Chinese Americans are immigrants, the rest are US born. Last year, the number of Chinese migrants crossing the southern border was nearly 10 times higher than in 2022. Factors contributing to this increase are said to include economic slowdown in China, tightening political control by the communist regime, and easy access to online information.
However, it is difficult to predict the voting pattern of Indian Americans in the ensuing presidential election. They will go by their own choice rather than what diplomatically suits India. Going by the US census bureau data, the US was home to about 4.8 million Indian Americans as of 2022. Indian Americans account for 20 percent of the nation’s Asian American population overall. A Pew Research Centre study shows almost 68 percent of Indian American registered voters identify with or lean toward the Democratic Party, and 29 percent lean toward the Republican Party. Nearly two-thirds of Indian Americans are immigrants, while 34 percent are US born. Around half of Indian Americans live in just four states — California (20 percent), Texas (12 percent), New Jersey (nine percent) and New York (seven percent). This time, Trump is banking on the support of Hindu Americans. During his election campaign, Trump spoke highly of Hindu ethos. (IPA Service)
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