Brig Anil Gupta
Mian Nawaz Sharif heads a duly elected civilian Government in Pakistan. It was for the first time in the history of Pakistan that the power was transferred directly between the elected Governments. The newly elected Pakistani Prime Minister is trying to flex his muscles to regain total control of the country’s affairs. Despite a hue and cry back home he decided to visit New Delhi to be present during the swearing in ceremony of the new Indian Prime Minister NarendraModi. Some analysts in India considered it as declining influence of the Pakistan Army in the civil-military equation in Pakistan. The relationship between the military and the elected Government in Pakistan has always been very delicate and tenuous. The United States as a matter of policy continues to deal with Pakistan’s military leaders despite the fact that the military handed over power to the civilian Government six years ago.
Since the revival of democracy in 2008 the relationship between the military and the elected Governments has been characterised by mutual distrust. Despite the end of military rule, the Army in Pakistan continues to control the levers of security and foreign policies. The type of relationship with India is determined solely by the military. According to a popular Pakistani joke, “all countries have armies, but here, an army has a country.” The Pakistan Army is an authority unto itself and is unwilling to accept the civilian supremacy. Only deviation from the past has been to shift its emphasis from ‘overt’ rule to an invisible ‘ruler’. Stephen Cohen in his book ‘The Future of Pakistan’ states, “The fear of India drives the Pakistan Army and the Army drives Pakistan.”
After the retirement of General Kayani, Mian Nawaz Sharif appointed his name sake General Raheel Sharif as the new Chief of Army Staff after superseding two other generals. People thought that Nawaz Sharif was trying to display his hold over the Army. But soon the relations between the two Sharifs turned bitter. Nawaz Sharif was keen to extend an olive branch to the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) while the army was in favour of military solution to the problem. Despite repeated failure of the peace talks and growing defiance of TTP, the Government did not yield to the army’s advice. Till one day when General Sharif thumped the desk and said enough is enough. It is reported that Pakistan’s powerful Army Chief GeneralRaheel Sharif met the Prime Minister and told him that ” the time for talks with the Taliban was over.” Pakistan’s Interior Ministry issued a clarification quoting the Interior Minister Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan, ” there was no decision to call off the dialogue process, nor was any such demand made.” Just two days later Pakistan forces launched rare air strikes against terrorists residing in North Waziristan and announced the launch of Operation Zarb-e-Azb. This put the military firmly back at the centre-stage of Pakistan’s security policy much against the wishes of the elected Government.
The other bone of contention that has surfaced in the public domain is the trial of former dictator Pervez Musharraf. The army was reportedly upset about the manner in which Musharraf trial was being used to demean the image of the army and public humiliation of the former Chief. It was conveyed candidly by General Sharif to the Prime Minister and the civilian Government but the ministers continued with their ‘army bashing’ rhetoric and did not pay heed to the army’s reservations. The Army Chief then decided to go public and in a hard hitting speech at Ghazi Base while addressing an elite commando unit (the unit commanded by Musharraf) he warned the civilian Government, “Pakistan Army upholds the sanctity of all institutions and will resolutely preserve its own dignity and institutional pride.” This was contrary to the civilian Government’s claim of army and the Government being “on the same page” on security and foreign policy issues. Will the army have the last laugh in determining the fate of the former dictator? The indications are positive and despite the reservations of the Nawaz Government the issue would be settled on the army’s terms.
The population on both sides of the border is emotionally attached to the issue of Indo-Pak relations. While the moderators pray and hope that with new Governments in place in both the countries things may change for the better and could usher an era of good relations between the two neighbours, the hard liners continue to stick to their old positions. Pakistan’s India policy is undoubtedly scripted by the all- powerful Pakistan Army. Christine Fair, author of “Fighting to the End,” a book on the Pakistani Army’s strategic culture says “The Pakistan military doesn’t have to run the country to have its preferred policy operationalised.” The Pakistan Army is obsessed with its anti-India policy and perceives no deviation from it. Repeated attempts by the civilian Governments in Pakistan to resolve issues bilaterally have met stiff resistance from the army. The army’s strategy is simple, if they can’t restraint their own head of the Government then carry out such an act that forces India to unilaterally withdraw from the negotiations. The Pakistan army abhors Shimla Agreement and its core policy of ‘bilateralism.’ In order to thwart the Vajpayee – Nawaz Lahore initiative, Pakistan Army masterminded Kargil conflict. When Zardari was trying to extend the hand of friendship, the Pak Army rolled the most heinous terror attack in Mumbai on 26 November 2008.
One wonders that even now when the Pakistan Army has its hands full in North Waziristan and in internal security duties why does it continue to repeatedly violate the ceasefire on the line of control (LC) and international border (IB) to which Pakistan interestingly refers as ‘working boundary’? Apart from the reasons of supporting infiltration and pushing in terrorists, the reason most people fail to realise is to keep the public and Government reminded of the fact that their enemy No. 1 is India. The very basis of existence of Pakistan army is anti-India policy. According to Hussain Haqqani, a former ambassador of Pakistan to US, “Pakistan Army still has to embrace the concept that an army exists primarily to face enemies in the battlefield, but the decision of who the enemy is should be taken by civilian leaders.”
India has decided to send her foreign secretary to Islamabad on 25th August for talks with her Pakistani counterpart. It is sanguine that the both would be discussing the issues of cross-border terrorism, ceasefire violations and Pak sponsored proxy war. As I have tried to bring out that in matters of foreign policy, Indo-Pak relations in particular, and security policy the civilian Government generally plays second fiddle to the army. With this background will the talks serve any purpose? Would they yield any results without the nod of Pakistan army. There can be no hope from the Government that does not have the reins in its hands. The talks are doomed and likely to fail. One was expecting that the new Government in New Delhi would refrain from the antiquated Pak policy of the previous Governments and come out with an ‘out of the box’ approach. Alas! It has happened. The wisdom lies in learning quickly from the mistakes and resorting to mid- course corrections. Time has come for us to learn from the Americans and have direct talks with military authorities in Pakistan. A detailed plan needs to be formulated. Beginning must be made with increased military to military contact. The DGMO level meet held recently should not be a one-time affair but converted into a regular feature. Meetings at different levels over a period of time should culminate in a one to one meet between the Chiefs of the two armies. As long as the military continues to be the sole architect of foreign and security policies, talks with the civilian Government would yield no results and no headway can be made. Time has come for India to actively pursue military diplomacy.
(The author is presently a political commentator, security and strategic analyst. The views expressed in this article are entirely personal.)
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