Aditi Choudhary
As crucial as the maritime south is for India given its centrality in the Indo-Pacific, continental North with its own set of complications and challenges has equal strategic importance for India. Taliban’s taking over of Afghanistan’s control, radicalisation, terrorism pose a greater security threat while Dragon’s expansionist designs are a strategic challenge for India. It’s here that the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation assumes importance whose recent Council of Heads of State summit was held virtually under Indian presidency on 4th July,2023. The SCO focuses on regional security, economic cooperation and cultural exchange.
What is SCO ?
Shanghai Cooperation Organisation was established at the height of American unipolarity in 2001. Its roots can be traced back to the grouping Shanghai Five : China, Russia, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Kazakhstan formed in 1996. With the inclusion of Uzbekistan, it was renamed to Shanghai Cooperation Organisation. Russia and China were apprehensive of NATO expansion and did not want the “colour revolutions” to spread to Central Asia and the East European region, hence the grouping came into existence.
India, an observer since 2005, alongwith Pakistan became members of SCO in 2017. The then geopolitical realities, tackling terrorism and extremism and the desire for greater integration with Central Asia prompted India to seek an increased role in the grouping. This year Iran has become the newest member while some other countries engage with the SCO as observers and dialogue partners.
Fault lines
Prime Minister Modi vociferously talked about cross border terrorism and maintained that sovereignty and territorial integrity of countries should be respected in the presence of PM of Pakistan Shahbaz Sharif and Chinese President Xi Jinping. All members except India expressed support for the BRI. India also chose to stay out of the SCO Economic Development Agenda strategy proposed by China.
Bilateral divergences with China and Pakistan impede any serious cooperation on serious issues. Moreover, India’s bonhomie with the US means a tight spot in the China dominated club.
Many believe that India is in a quandary, questioning if at all it should continue as a member of the SCO. What does India stand to gain from the grouping ? A case for India’s continued and sustained presence has been made below :
CENTRAL ASIA
The former Soviet republics, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan have immense geoeconomic, geopolitical and geostrategic importance with whom India shares civilisational, cultural and spiritual ties. New Delhi has deepened its diplomatic engagement with this resource rich region in recent years. Connect Central Asia policy, 2012 provided a broad based framework for engagement. Subsequently, the first ever India-Central Asia summit was held virtually on 27th January,2022 on the occasion of 30th anniversary of establishment of diplomatic relations with the republics.The summit focussed on trade and connectivity, defence and security, culture and education.
India is increasingly being seen as a trusted development partner by the CARs. Gulshan Sachdeva, Prof, Centre for European studies writes that Central Asian Republics (CARs) want India to play a greater role in the region, helping them diversify and reduce their dependencies on Russia and China.
It is significant to note that in May 2023, a summit was organised by China in the region. This minilateral saw China announcing its grand plans for the development of the region, receiving wide support from CARs. The timing of the summit was also hard to miss.
Furthermore, CARs also support China’s BRI despite the suspicion and distrust around the nature and sustainability of these projects.
Trade & Connectivity :
Central Asian engagement through SCO also provides a pathway to a larger Eurasian vision of India. India seeks to improve its connectivity with this highly contested geography and increase its trade ties which is not substantial considering the potential for cooperation. China’s trade on the other hand, with CARs is booming as are its investments.
Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan along with Iran and Oman consented to India’s accession to Ashgabat Agreement dealing with facilitation of transit and transportation of goods between Persian Gulf and Central Asia. Iran’s Chabahar port remains strategically vital for India. Through SCO, India can also promote the ambitious International North-South Transport Corridor, a multi-modal project connecting Mumbai via Bandar Abbas in Iran to Astrakhan, Russia and then onwards to Europe. This would reduce time taken in transporting goods between India and Eurasia while also effectively bypassing Pakistan’s territory.
India’s efforts to pursue its interests in the region have been thwarted by Pakistan which blocks any attempt to pass trade routes from its territory e.g Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) gas pipeline project.
SOFT POWER :
India has ushered in new areas of cooperation in SCO : startups and innovation, Science and technology and Traditional medicine, setting up new working groups during the course of its presidency. It hosted the first ever SCO Startup Forum, the first SCO MSME forum and the first SCO Young Scientist Conclave along with many cultural activities. In order to emphasise the millenia old civilisational links with the region, India has hosted the first-ever SCO Digital Exhibition on Shared Buddhist Heritage by the National Museum and the translation of 10 classics of Indian regional literature into Russian and Chinese languages.
A joint statement on Digital transformation was released at the summit however, the joint statements on initiatives like Millets and LiFE couldn’t be adopted.
All these initiatives and steps not only project India’s soft power but also reflect India as a trusted development partner.
ANTI-TERRORISM :
Regional anti-terror structure (RATS) is a permanent organ of the SCO to address separatism, extremism and regional terrorism.
Through SCO, India can make efforts at promoting practical cooperation to address extremism, terrorism and illicit drug trade ensuring peace and security. It is significant to note that all the leaders including Pakistan signed a joint statement on countering radicalisation leading to separatism and extremism. There were also mentions of drugs menace and terror emanating from Afghanistan. All this presents hope for addressing the security issues.
NON-WESTERN BLOC
As is evident, this grouping does not include any Western (in the collective sense of the word) country. Being part of Quad and continental grouping like SCO with anti-western rhetoric is emblematic of India’s strategic autonomy. Ashok Sajjanhar, former ambassador views this as India having a unique position : voice that is listened to in the West as well as by Putin.
Giiven Iran’s primacy in major connectivity projects like Chabahar port and INSTC, it is pragmatic to seek further cooperation through this platform. Iran drawing closer to China and Russia’s waning influence necessitates India’s continuing democratic presence in the grouping for obvious reasons.
CONCLUSION
It can be effectively concluded that the factors which led India to seek membership of the grouping are much relevant even today. Vivek Katju, former ambassador, writes that there is very much danger of China integrating the Eurasian region with Pakistan’s active support and shutting India out of the region. This requires India’s proactive engagement and integration with the region either through bilateral or minilateral means.
Nevertheless, SCO provides an important platform for not only promoting regional security and cooperation but also countering China’s geopolitical heft.
Navigating the difficult terrain of SCO when every other global organisation is getting affected by evolving global order and uncertainties would be a true test of India’s diplomacy.
The author is Aditi Choudhary (Masters in Public Administration & Public Policy, Miranda House alumna)
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