Amitava Mukherjee
Vladimir Putin, the Russian president, will come to India in October. His visit is important because it is going to take place in the backdrop of the US sanctions on Russia and Iran. Indian political establishment and the media are taking heart from the fact that the US has agreed to a waiver to the sanctions in regard to India’s proposed purchase of S-400 Triumf air defence system from Russia. But in effect the US has decided to tighten its noose on India further in the name of waiver. Now it will be seen how India can balance its growing proximity with the US with the decades old friendly relations with Russia particularly at a time when Moscow is rapidly enhancing its profile in the security scenario of South Asia by dint of its increasing proximity with China, Pakistan and the Taliban.
In the wake of China’s OBOR initiative India has suddenly become strategically important to the US which has renamed its Pacific Command as the US Indo-Pacific Command. However even if Mike Pompeo and James Mattis, US secretary of state and the defence secretary respectively, talked of waiver for India during the last 2+2 meeting in Delhi, in effect the US president will have to certify to the US Congress every six month that the beneficiary country is reducing its dependence on Russia and increasing cooperation with the US.
This is in spite of the fact that the US is now the second largest arms exporter to India although American arms like maritime surveillance aircrafts and transport planes are basically defensive in character while Russia has so far supplied India with lethal armaments like strategic bombers, battle tanks, aircraft carriers and nuclear submarines. But increasing US pressure on India to become a part of the US war in Afghanistan is likely to put Indo-Russia relations under further stress.
It is because Vladimir Putin is spreading Russia’s strategic reach from in a considerable swath of territories stretching from West Asia to South Asia. As a response to the West’s( meaning America, Britain and France) backing of ‘moderate’ jihadists in Syria against Bashr-al-Assad, he is said to have struck a relation with the Taliban in Afghanistan to thwart American war efforts there. At the same time his proximity with China is also growing and he is now ready to extend a helping hand to Beijing to curb American presence near the South China Sea and in the western Pacific. This profile is certain to collide with India’s status of a Major Defence Partner(MDS) of the US, a US- India declaration of making the Indo-Pacific free and open and India being a signatory to the Communications Compatibility and Security Agreement(COMCASA) that will enable New Delhi to receive encrypted security related message from the US.
It will be interesting to watch how Vladimir Putin balances his growing proximity with Pakistan with New Delhi’s decision to cancel foreign minister level talks with Islamabad in the sidelines of the United Nations general assembly meeting. New Delhi is already uncomfortable about a series of Russia-Pakistan-China meetings on Afghanistan which Moscow had hosted recently. Later on there was another such exercise involving the central Asian states, India, Afghanistan and China. But policy makers in New Delhi think that by these initiatives Russia is bestowing acceptability to Pakistan in international circles.
Still India would do well by not paying too much attention on these irritants and instead build on the special relations that it enjoys with Moscow. There are too many instances. Both the Sukhoi-30 aircraft and the T-90 Main Battle Tanks are now manufactured in India under licensed production. More than 60 percent arms and ammunitions used by the Indian armed forces are Russian in origin. Both sides have agreed to form a joint venture for production of KA-226T helicopters. On top of all, there is the Brahmos missile, an ideal example of two nations’ cooperation.
But all eyes will be focused on the S-400 air defence deal. It may be a game changer in south Asian security scenario given the fact that it will put India way ahead of Pakistan militarily. China is also on its way to procure it but most of such arsenals in Beijing’s kitty will be deployed to thwart possible American attacks. But given India’s existing lethal fire power, acquisition of the S-400 system will make it a significant counterbalance to China and a stronger pivot in the US Indo-Pacific policy. Moreover it will be a great threat to Pakistan with which the US has now a frosty relation. Those are perhaps the reasons why the US is talking of a waiver for India.
In addition India should bring the issue of bilateral economic relations to the negotiation table. Although the two countries had previously agreed that bilateral trade would be taken to a USD 30 billion level by 2025 yet the same has been hovering around USD 8 billion for quite some time and in it the balance of trade is heavily tilted in favour of Russia. In spite of the presence of some of India’s energy majors like the ONGC Videsh Limited in Russian energy market, yet a lot of misunderstanding has been generated as India is not supposedly getting sufficient help from Russia, as is the opinion of New Delhi’s policy makers, in her attempt to reach the Eurasian Economic Union market but the same of European Economic Union.
In regard to Russia, India should move with caution and diplomatic nicety because Moscow’s relation with Pakistan is growing. Russia has supplied four Mi-35 helicopters to Islamabad and has held the first ever joint military exercise with Pakistan in addition to its endeavour to involve Pakistan in bringing the Taliban to the negotiation process. But India and Russia share international platforms like the BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation(SCO). The latter is important in regard to south Asian security.
(The author is a senior journalist and commentator.)
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