Prof. Arvind Kumar
The growing strength of India’s ballistic missile programme, especially during the first decade of the 21st century, has demonstrated to the rest of the world that it has the technological know-how and the capability of achieving long-range ballistic missile of inter-continental series. The successes of Agni-III tests of intermediate range ballistic missile (IRBM) and Agni-V, which has a range beyond 5000 km, have indeed boosted the morale of the scientific and technical community.
Undeniably, India is on spree of achieving technological prowess in delivery systems in consonance with its threat perception. It is a well-known fact that its ballistic missile programme is an indigenous programme and has improved remarkably over the years despite all sorts of sanctions on defence technologies that are in place. The delisting of companies from the sanctions list by the United States seems to be all cosmetic.
India’s ballistic missile programme to a large extent has been a response to China’s capabilities. Beijing’s successes in the acquisition of inter-continental ballistic missiles, more particularly in their solid propellant systems such as DF-31, have provided lots of impetus for India to acquire Agni-V (ICBM). It must be noted here that the range of Agni-V will certainly not be equivalent to DF-31 series. In fact, both the payload and the stage of the missile will be different. However, the success of Agni-V is in continuation of India’s commitment on the path of achieving a credible deterrent capability.
Indeed, the Agni-V ballistic missile will add confidence and provide the requisite deterrent capability to India. It has been estimated that it will become operational in less than three years. In the current context, Agni-III is being inducted into strategic missile groups governed by India’s nuclear command. The Nuclear Command Authority (NCA) made a review recently on the progress made in terms of the acquisitions of ballistic missile of various categories by India.
The technical specifications of Agni-V reveal that it will be cannisterised, road-mobile and designed for quick deployment. An attempt will also be made to achieve multiple independently targetable re-entry vehicle (MIRV) capability. However, it requires a greater sophistication in telemetry and navigation systems and though it may sound an ambitious plan on the part of New Delhi, it is a reality that India is dreaming of having MIRV capability. In comparison, China is yet to achieve complete mastery in MIRV technology as per reliable analysis by the strategic community.
The Agni-I ballistic missile of 700 km range and Agni-II ballistic missile of 2,000 km range are already operational. Agni-III of 3,500 km range is being inducted into the core of India’s strategic missile systems under the direct control of the NCA.
The sub-systems and various other components of Agni-V ballistic missile would require integration. Since, Agni-V ballistic missile is going to be a three-stage missile, it requires testing at all stages on the ground, which is being done by the Advanced Systems Laboratory (ASL) located at Hyderabad. It should also be highlighted here that Agni-V will be India’s first strategic missile with a rocket motor built from composites and not from the metal construction used in all earlier Agni series missiles. The challenge before India would now be the integration of major subsystems.
India views its existing medium and intermediate range ballistic missiles as being almost exclusively for nuclear weapons delivery. All systems in its ballistic missile inventory are mobile and rely on covertness to survive a first strike and retaliate and inflict unacceptable damage to the aggressor. New Delhi’s no-first-use policy has been made one of the important pillars of the Indian nuclear doctrine. Under this, the country would first absorb the first strike and then would be fully equipped with the second-strike capability.
Hence, the Agni-V ballistic missile is certainly a significant step towards boosting India’s ‘second-strike’ capabilities. It will have a range of 5,000 km with a MIRV capability. Its chances of survivability during the first strike would be very high and its capability of reaching the targets deep inside during the second strike will be remarkable.
Agni-V ballistic missile can remain hidden or camouflaged in underground silos from enemy’s surveillance or satellites till these are fired from the special storage-cum-launch canisters. The composite canister has made the missile much easier to store for longer periods without maintenance as well as to handle and transport.
Ballistic missiles play an important role in the political and security dynamics of Southern Asia. It strongly affects the threat perceptions and resultant strategies of India, Pakistan and China. Beginning with little aerospace or defence infrastructure, the Pakistani ballistic missile programme has made surprisingly rapid progress. A number of missiles have been tested in all their series of missiles– Ghauri, Ghaznavi, Abdali and Shaheen in the past one decade. Of all these, Ghaznavi missile would somewhat be similar to India’s Shaurya’s missile not in terms of range but its strategic threat. Ghaznavi missile is a modified version of the Chinese M 11 missile and in view of its will still be the most operational of the Pakistani missiles.
China’s ballistic missile programme is most advanced in the whole of Asia. Chinese leaders have articulated that a limited but long-range missile capability is a key component of national strength and prestige. Its nuclear weapons’ delivery systems are mainly land-based missiles and few submarine launched systems of intermediate range. Potential targets for Chinese ballistic missiles include local conflicts along the country’s periphery – Taiwan, Vietnam, India, Russia, Central Asia, and the greater Pacific region (Japan, U.S. military bases in Asia and the western pacific).
China possesses a small ICBM force directed at the US (although the two agreed not to target each other in 1998). It has deployed the DF-3, the DF-4, the DF-4A and the DF-21 to target India. In fact, Beijing’s strategic modernization programme brought its solid propellant systems under great focus. The DF-21 missiles have been stored inside closed canisters and towed by mobile launchers. The DF-3 missile is also being replaced by the DF-21 and is deployed at the Chuxiong base in Yunnan province. Importantly, Chinese ballistic missiles have the capability to target any part of India.
On its part, India has been gearing itself in terms of responding to any emerging threats from neighbouring countries. Achieving delivery systems for complementing its nuclear deterrent, India’s move towards acquiring ballistic missiles of all ranges has so far been satisfactory. The testing of Agni-V has added to this momentum of strengthening its defence preparedness and signaling to the adversaries about its capability and intent. The ballistic missile will fulfill the land leg of India’s triad. The boosting of technology demonstrator programme and ongoing research and development in a robust way would help India becoming a hub of all probable sensitive defence technologies. After all, India has become self-reliant in all sectors where technological sanctions had been imposed. (INFA)
(The author is working in Deptt of Geopolitics & Intel Relations Manipal Univ)
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