Col J P Singh, Retd
Even before the ink dried on the Indo-US Nuclear deal, Chinese foreign office strongly reacted to Premier Narendra Modi and President Obama’s joint references to ‘US-India Joint Strategic Vision for Asia-Pacific & Indian Ocean Region’. Indo-US joint statement document states, ‘We affirm the importance of safeguarding maritime security and ensuring freedom of navigation and over flights through out the region especially in the South-China Sea’. Taking it as American move to contain China with Indian partnership the spokesperson said, “relevant disputes should be resolved by parties concerned through peaceful talks and consultations. External countries should not stir up trouble in the region”. Chinese reaction is not surprising because too much of South China Sea is being talked about not only by US & India but more loudly by the ASEAN. Today one thing is clear from the joint statement that both fear China in South China Sea. Last September also there was reference to South China Sea during Premier Modi’s state visit to Washington. China had reacted then too by saying that dispute in South China Sea, if any, should be resolved by sovereign countries directly through consultations and negotiations. Current ‘strategic vision document’ combines Obama govt’s controversial ‘Pivot to Asia’ and Modi govt’s assertive ‘Act East Policy’ with common objective of facing security challenges posed by China in the region. It is because in 1992 China had passed a law declaring entire South China Sea as its territory and threatened neighboring claimants militarily.
China claims indisputable sovereignty over the South China Sea and its islands where 17.7 billion tons of oil is estimated. The area is one of the busiest shipping route of the world. More than half of the oil tonnage transported by sea passes through it. 50 % of India’s trade is through South China Sea. China calls it ‘Second Persion Gulf’ and plans to spend $ 30 Billion in next 20 years for oil and gas exploration. Their consistent position is that they are opposed to any other country engaging in oil and gas exploration or development activities in waters under China’s jurisdiction. China has declared claimed area as ‘No Fly Zone’ for others. This has caused protests and confrontations between China and other countries of that region.
Earlier also a loose security set up was formed by US, Japan, Australia and India against Chinese hegemony in South China Sea. But India was not keen to get sucked into the emerging cold war in Asia. Presently we see India’s desire to get involved after its ‘Act East Policy’ to safeguard its trade interests. Modi is keen to work closely with US, Australia and Japan to counter the challenges that China poses. By all accounts this shows pragmatic approach to diplomacy and a major shift in Indian foreign policy.
But Modi also knows that China cannot be alienated beyond a point. China is an opportunity as well as a danger. China is India’s biggest trading partner which is expected to rise after President Xi’s visit and his assurances of $ 20 Billion investment. In Indian quest for infrastructure development it can be a source of cheaper and reliable technology. It can help stabilize Afghanistan, reining in Pakistan and can help India combat the scourge of terrorism. It is a danger because Sino-Indian border has become a flashpoint since 2013 and China-Pak relations have strengthened. India’s strengthening friendship with Australia and Japan as well Vietnam and the Philippines (in China’s backyard) is irksome for China. It has invested a lot in Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and Maldives in infrastructure, military and economic assistance. China has already surrounded India and can endanger it much more. It can even support Naxals & separatists. India therefore has to do a balancing act between the US and China which indeed is a Tightrope Walk. And that perhaps is reason which took Sushma Swaraj to Beijing while the excitement over Obama’s visit was still strong in India. This shows that India does not want to engage with US alone but its northern neighbor is equally important. Her visit sends the signal that India’s diplomacy is not one directional. Besides that her visit has made grounds for Modi’s purposeful and outcome driven visit later in May.
George Bush made his nuclear opening to India because he wanted to hedge rising China. But when Obama visited China in 2009, US priorities shifted. Their joint declarations of closely cooperating on all issues related to peace and stability in Asia upset Delhi. But India chose to maintain its strategic neutrality and autonomy. The US turnabout against China came towards the end of Obama’s first tenure when China increased its military presence in the South China Sea. Moreover in the recent years China has rattled India by border ingresses. Ladakh (Depsong) incursion during President Xi-Jinping’s visit to India was a grave provocation. Later Modi called China as an expansionist power and encroacher on the sea areas of other countries during his visit to Japan which drew strong Chinese reactions.
One thing has become amply clear after President Obama’s visit that US and India don’t lack in ambitions in taking the newly built relationship to an unimaginable height. Shared fears about China’s hegemonic ambitions in Asia-Pacific and dangers of radical Islamist terrorism drive two world’s democracies to each other. India’s size, location, population, democratic polity and vast economic potential has led Washington to believe that rise of India is in the best interests of America. To our prime minister’s credit he has strengthened American resolve to that level. While India is keen to join APEC, US has assured it to facilitate it. Chinese support is also mandatory in getting entry in APEC. Economic integration with all the stake holders in Asia-Pacific region is essential for building Indian dominance in Indian Ocean region. In the Indian Ocean region India can help US and Japan to to stamp their foot prints against China.
Obama assured Modi of strong efforts in support of India’s full membership of the four international export control regime and backing for membership of Nuclear Suppliers Group. India is ambitious of membership of UNSC which President has endorsed. China has its reservation on all of these. Therefore India has to earn Chinese support somehow.
Prime Minister Modi has ambitions to strengthen India. He is keen to revamp Indian economy. He has launched ‘Make in India’ campaign in a bid to attract international businesses to invest and manufacture. He has shown keen interest in Chinese investments and resolution of border issue. But his vision of forging a strong India goes even beyond that. In Beijing’s views also territorial dispute is an eye sore in the bilateral ties. Officials in China feel that the two strong and popular leaders in power both countries is an opportunity to settle the borders. Chinese leadership is impressed by Modi’s can do image. Hence China is taking India more seriously while it is getting closer to Washington.
India’s desire to increase its manufacturing capacity is in accordance with American desire to diversify from China where average hourly earnings exceeds 3.52 $ as compared to 1 $ in India. US promise to cooperate in building aircraft carriers and supplying cutting edge technology and avionics for Indian Navy will strengthen Indian security apparatus.
Modi has raised expectations that he is a kind of leader who is unafraid of breaking some conventions while pursuing his goals. If he continues to reform the economy and revitalize Indian diplomacy, his honeymoon with Washington will lengthen and differences with China minimise. An out of box solution to the simmering border dispute can be considered by him. The consequences of such scenario for India, China and Asia could be useful. Hopefully India will strengthen ties with China and its neighbors like Japan, Vietnam, South Korea and Indonesia independent of any alliance against China. Alliance against China will amount to opening more dangerous fronts in the neighborhood in which the risks outweigh the benefits.
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