K N Pandita
Fallacy of vacuum
After the implosion of the Soviet Union in 1991, followed by a declaration of independence by the 5+2 Central Asian States, some prominent Islamist countries like Iran, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia, aspired to fill the vacuum. Their common agenda was to promote Islamism in Central Asia, which they thought had been de-Islamized under the Soviet regime. They lost no time in dispatching their delegations to Dushanbe to sell to the Tajiks their camouflaged agenda.
An unexpected subtle rebuff from Dushanbe made them realize that their knowledge of Tajikistan after less than seven decades of Soviet rule was dismally pitiable. In 1996, while on a visit to Dushanbe, my senior academic and media friends told me that after independence, Iran was impatient to build ties with us. But when we found that its hand was nearing our throat, we cut it away. That is a sentence of historical content. These presumptuous countries retreated immediately after realizing the bankruptcy of ideas that belittled them in the presence of those they thought had been de-Islamized.
Why Tajikistan in particular
Of all the five republics of post-Soviet Central Asia, Tajikistan is the only country of the Aryan race with the old Farsi language and culture. In Avesta — meaning pre-Islamic history and civilization—, the lands beyond River Amu (Oxus of Herodotus) were given the name of Turan, which is different from Turkistan. The people of this vast landmass were originally of Zoroastrian faith and converted to Islam by those who themselves belonged to proselytized groups. Therefore, these presumptuous countries thought they would have an easy walk over them.
But, unfortunate for them, they did not know the reality about transformation of the Central Asian societies from conservatism to modernism under the unique and historically unparalleled theory and practice of Marxism-Leninism. Under Soviet power, a new and unprecedented Central Asia was born. Its culture perpetuates even today with added passion, thirty-two years after the implosion of the Soviet Union. The proof of that is the six-year-long civil war which Tajikistan fought against radical forces and won. Again, the tenacious fight which Uzbekistan gave to the sponsored radicals called the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) and Hizbu’t Tahreer, (now headquartered in London) is another example.
Tajik-Iran dissonance
For the past few years, Tajikistan has hardly had good relations with Iran. The root cause of their differences was that Tajikistan had evidence to allege that Iran was trying to export Iranian Islamic revolution to Tajikistan forgetting that Tajikistan had fought six-year long battle against the radicals and had given huge sacrifices to maintain its secular and non-radicalized ethos it had inherited from the Soviet rule. Dushanbe considered Iran a sponsor of terrorism and the architect of numerous attempts to cultivate radical Islamic sentiments.
The Tajik government actively began expunging all Iranian influences. An Iranian trade and culture centre in the northern Soghd province or River Samarkand Valley was shut down. The works of Iranian patriarch Ayatollah Khomeini and other famous Iranian clerics were forbidden, direct flights between the countries were suspended, and Iranian companies were squeezed out. State television aired a documentary accusing Tehran of orchestrating a slew of assassinations of high-profile public figures on Tajik soil during and after the civil war of the 1990s, reported the Eurasia Net on 8 November 2023.
Tajik anti-Iran acrimony was accelerated by an episode in December 2015. Iran invited Tajik opposition leader Mohiddin Kabiri, who is wanted in Tajikistan on charges of fomenting a plot to topple the Government. He attended an Islamic-themed conference in Tehran and he was pictured exchanging warm greetings with the Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
Saudi Factor
With time passing fast, and keeping pace with the changing political scenario on the regional and wider plane, Dushanbe began ignoring the acrimony that had bedeviled relations with Iran. At the beginning of 2022, the Tajik President visited Iran and came back with a handful of cooperation agreements. Iran’s foreign and defence ministers reciprocated the visit.
On November 8, Iranian President Raisi travelled to Dushanbe where he was greeted with smiles and handshakes. Raisi and Tajik President Emomali Rahmon oversaw the signing of 19 cooperation documents in various areas like visa, international transportation, drug control etc. Reports are that while the Tajik President’s office issued a vague statement, the Iranian President was outspoken against the US.
This apart, it appears Riyadh was closely monitoring Raisi’s visit to Dushanbe and deliberations with the Tajik President. Only last week, Saudi Arabia pledged that it would allocate $ 100 million in the form of a soft loan for Tajikistan’s ongoing effort to build its colossal Roghun hydropower dam. This project was originally conceived during the Soviet period but owing to paucity of funds it could not be undertaken. After independence from the Soviet Union, Pakistan was reportedly evincing interest in this mega project. But it fizzled out as Pakistan had neither money nor expertise to undertake such a project. Now Saudi Arabia is aspiring to create a clout with the Tajik Government by offering a soft loan for building the dam.
Tajikistan tilted towards Saudi Arabia in around 2017. The then Riyadh’s ambassador in Dushanbe said in an interview of “having conducted a campaign of diplomacy that had culminated in the expulsion of Iran and its agents from the country.” Speaking about Saudi intention to strengthen ties with Tajikistan, the Saudi ambassador had said that Saudi Arabia would be providing funds for the opening of six religious schools and two universities in the following two years. None of these materialized.
Conclusion
This reflects a curious type of triangular dealing in Central Asian politics. There are some things common between Tehran and Riyadh though nothing is openly said about that. Both Iran and Saudi still nurture the expectation of the de-Sovietization of Tajikistan by hanging the carrot of religion before it. Saudi has a history of announcing grants-in-aid for different projects in different countries in the world but not moving beyond the formalities and protocols. One cannot say what will be the fate of the aid promised for the Roghun project. Dushanbe has been more resilient after understanding clearly which side of its toast is buttered. Although Tajikistan is still under the influence of Moscow but China factor is very much present and active not only in Tajikistan but the whole of Central Asia. How long can Tajikistan resist these pressures remains to be seen? The Beijing-brokered Iran-Saudi rapprochement reflects China’s cheap diplomacy of self-aggrandizement which is short-lived and unrealistic.
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