Kashmir imbroglio
Col J P Singh
The political status of J&K, as it looks, is that Ladakh is vehemently aspiring for Union Territory, Kashmir violently demanding separation (self rule) while Jammu is vigorously struggling to retain its identity. Results of recently held Urban Local Bodies election is also a pointer in that direction. The myth that J&K, a heritage of Dogra Rulers, as one entity, has outlived its historical inviolability. It is split in pieces, shared by three and disputed. The current J&K is:- (i) Ladakh – 59,948 sq kms in area with population 2.75 lakh (ii) Kashmir – 15,948 sq Kms in area with population 68.7 lakh (iii) Jammu – 26,293 sq kms in area with population 56.9 lakh. (Total J&K – 1,02,194 sq kms). Illegally held POJK is 78,114 sq kms ie 76 % of J&K. (J&K under China is 42,735 sq kms). Thus total area under illegal occupation of China & Pakistan is 1,20, 849 sq kms; more than J&K. Area of Mirpur & Muzaffrabad is 13,297sq kms with a population of 4.05 lakh whereas Gilgit-Baltistan is 72,971 kms with a population of 18 lakh. As per constitution of Pakistan Gilgit-Baltistan is not its part, still part of J&K. What a ‘Bandar Bant’! It wasn’t such during Dogra rule. Had J&K survived as single undivided political entity devoid of any division or dispute, it would have been ideal situation both for J&K & India. Such complex riddle can only be solved by an out of the box formula.
The left over state comprises of three regions. They are also mired in Inter & Intra regional conflicts while Kashmir is getting radicalized with impunity. Jammu and Ladakh are feeling the heat of it. PDP-BJP coalition govt was the last straw that broke the camel’s back. Marriage of a nationalist party with the party born out of the womb of militancy was an un-natural alliance and doomed right at hustings when late Mufti Sahib deliberately made Pakistan and separatists partners in Assembly election, which made him CM, immediately after swearing in. He scored the first winning goal. Thereafter BJP couldn’t checkmate any anti Jammu/anti-national tirade of the coalition partner. Pampering of Muftis by the centre alienated Jammu and Ladakh. Yet all is not lost. Under the Governor rule there is a proverbial hope that an out of the box formula can be tried.
Reasons for complicated status of J&K became absolutely clear during the 2 days seminar in Jammu University on ‘Re-Situating Maharaja Hari Singh’ and similar Seminar and a documentary on Accession by Voice of Dogras in Amar Mahal. It also became clear that despite being Muslim majority, Princely State was a polyglot entity whose people enjoyed little religious homogeneity, interaction or unity and had differing desires for their future. While the majority were Muslim, they didn’t comprise a unified, monolithic community. Most were Sunnis but there were Shias, Sufis and Ismalis. Others who represented J&K were Hindus, Buddhists, Jains, Sikhs and Christians; all split in sub-castes such as Rajputs, Brahmins, Thakkars, Jats, Untouchables, Gujjars, Bakarwals, Poonchis, Syeds, Afghans, Punjabis, Maliks, Mians, Sikhs, Kashmiris, Pandits, Bodh, Dards, Baltis, Shins, and Yashkins. While some of these categories represented ethnic groups, the others had some sort of religious affiliations. In a straight choice between India and Pakistan, all Hindus and sizeable Muslims favoured joining India while other Muslims and some prominent Kashmiri Pandits favoured Pakistan while some were in favour of staying independent. Muslims of Poonch started agitation for Azad Kashmir even before the partition while Muslims of Gilgit-Baltistan revolted soon after accession and joined Pakistan. Conversely many Kashmiri Muslim were not enthusiastic about joining Pakistan, an important fact to note. Indeed many were actively pro-Indian. Led by Sheikh Abdullah, their distaste for Pakistan was heightened with Tribal Invasion in October 1947 which they opposed with full force. Consequently many supported Maharaja’s decision to accede to India, an act in which Sheikh and National Conference played an important role. Had Muslims been united in wanting J&K to join Pakistan in 1947, it would have been exceedingly difficult for Maharaja to oppose their wishes. Critical revaluation would reveal that people of J&K were not unanimous, hence disunited and essentially indecisive in 1947. That led to simmering internal discontent and lingering dispute. It is high time to find a way out of this rigmarole.
Kashmir is burning because of Pakistan and illegally occupied areas are also volatile because of Pakistan. To be in or with Pakistan just because it is a Muslim homeland is an insufficient reason for POK & Gilgit-Baltistan. More Muslims remained in India after partition and today India is world’s second largest Muslim populated nation. That is why Kashmiri Muslims tied their destiny with India. Using the same logic, POJK can come back to India should India take bold political and diplomatic initiatives. Militarily India will not be able to re-claim the occupied areas because world allowed Pakistan to turn nuclear. Let fighting a nuclear war over the lost areas be the least option.
Coming back to main issue, the destabilizing forces are very active in the valley. Jammu and Ladakh are affected by the fall out. Kishtwar killings are the proof. Situation in the valley is extremely worrying and effecting Jammu & Ladakh psyche. Ladakh is demanding Union Territory since 1951 which the BJP promised before 2014 general election. The region is for greater integration with the national mainstream. Its separated part Gilgit-Baltistan is craving for freedom from Pakistan. Ladakh borders China and Pakistan and hence plays an important role for national security. From security point of view it should be a Union Territory. Ladakh as UT would mean coming out of Kashmiri domination. That is expected to provoke Gilgit-Baltistan to seek similar freedom from Pakistan and seek a federal relationship with Ladakh (India). Gilgit-Baltistan is Shia dominated area but under Gen Zia’s rule Sunnis were encouraged to settle there to alter its demography which was detested by locals. Gilgit-Baltistan is unhappy over CPEC passing through it. Similarly if Jammu is separated, even though chances are that POJK may not seek separation from Pakistan being Sunni dominated but definitely will seek more political power (greater autonomy) and later seek federal relationship with Jammu because of social and cultural links. If any such demand rises in two major illegally held Indian parts, chances are that Sindh & Baluchistan will intensify their resistant movement against Punjabi domination which will destabilize Pakistan. It can jeopardize CPEC and China-Pak relationship. What else can be a ideal prospect for India! Why shouldn’t NSA explore it, if he is the right person.
25 Assembly seats (now 24) were kept frozen and vacant for POJK. 5 lakh people migrated from POJK and were settled in Jammu. They are claimant of 6 to 8 seats out of the 25 which Dogra Swabhiman Sangathan is vehemently demanding. Governor can defreeze them to be contested by the POJK migrants. There is a precedent of de-freezing of one seat earlier which was granted to Mendhar. That will leave 16 to 18 seats for POJK inhabitants. Restoring POJK migrants’ political and constitutional rights will be a lesson for those still in POJK that their seats are safe in India inviting them to avail them and enjoy liberal democratic rights. Such or similar diplomatic initiatives are worth the idea, to break the logjam and meet the national aspirations. In the meantime freeing Jammu & Ladakh from Kashmiri oppression and separating them in whatever constitutional manner it can easily be done, will go a long in addressing the regional aspirations. Retrieval of illegally occupied areas diplomatically, to my mind, is still in the realm of probability. It is worth a trial.
Jammuites engaged in three significant actions to the partition of 1947. The first was Muslim uprising in Poonch area angst the Maharaja. The second was serious communal violence that resulted in killing / displacement of large number of people from all religious communities. The third was the creation of Azad Kashmir by the rebel Muslim leaders in the Western Poonch area that they had liberated from Maharaja forces. All these happened before Maharaja acceded to India on 26 October 1947. The last event divided the Muslim majority state and ensured that it was undeliverable in its entirety either to India or Pakistan. They instigated the ongoing dispute between India and Pakistan over which state should possess J&K; ‘the so called the Kashmir dispute’. It is logical to deduce that the people who call themselves as Azad Kashmiri instigated the Kashmir dispute.
The Kashmir dispute has bedeviled Indo-Pak relations since 1947. Following the Maharaja’s accession to India, the Indian and the Pakistani govts and then the UN resolved to consult the people about its international status. It was to be done via a UN supervised plebiscite. The poll has not been held, nor likely to be held anytime in future. Hence the people stand marginalized. Despite being marginalized they still are the stake holders because of democratic set up of governance. Given Indian and Pak inability to resolve the dispute, only the people of J&k seem to hold the key to the dispute if they have the will and sufficient compassion to do so. This reaffirms the deferred proposition to Kashmir dispute, ‘the will of the people’.
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