Harsha Kakar
The changed Russian nuclear doctrine and Biden’s sanction to Zelensky to employ US provided Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) on Russian soil have resulted in a belief that this could lead to the Third World War. With US giving sanction, both UK and France have also followed suit. Russia responded to the Ukrainian attack by the ATACMS on its Bryansk region by employing its under testing Oreshnik hypersonic missile in a conventional mode on the military industrial complex in Dnipro. Ukraine was also compelled to cancel its parliamentary session fearing a similar strike.
This is the first time that Russia has used a long-range ballistic missile. The missile is nuclear capable and can carry multiple warheads. It is believed to travel at a speed of 10 Mach and is undetectable by current air defence systems. It would take a maximum of 19 minutes to reach the UK, its most distant European target.
The message to Europe was clear, Russia has the ability to expand. Meanwhile the UK Deputy Chief of Defence Staff, Rob Magowan, mentioned in the British House of Commons, ‘If the British Army was asked to fight tonight, it would fight tonight.’
The Russian hypersonic missile launch had the necessary impact. NATO and Ukraine are now scheduled to hold emergency talks on future course of the war.The intent appears to be to prevent escalation. Zelensky in his weekly address to the nation requested world leaders to act urgently to avoid escalation of the conflict as also condemn the strike, not that it would matter. It is only the west which believes that Russia is escalating the conflict.
Russian spokespersons as also many from the west have mentioned that the US decision opens doors for expansion of the conflict. Glenn Beck, a US political commentator, commented that Biden is attempting to plunge the US into a war.Members of the incoming Donald Trump administration also criticized Biden’s decision. Elon Musk recently shared a video on X justifying that NATO’s expansion, rather than Russian aggression, provoked the conflict.
There are already differences emerging within NATO allies. Hungary, which joined NATO in 1999, criticized the US decision permitting employment of its missiles. Its foreign minister mentioned, ‘One has the feeling that the pro-war political elites on both sides of the ocean are launching one last desperate, scalding attack on new realities and the will of the people.’
Hungarian Prime Minister, Viktor Orbán, defended Putin’s comments of US direct participation in the conflict by mentioning, ‘there is a strong assumption … that these missiles cannot be guided without the assistance of American personnel.’ Poland claimed that the war is now entering a decisive phase.
Russian politicians have warned that Europe would be dragged into the conflict. Putin mentioned, ‘We will continue these tests, including in combat conditions, depending on the situation and the nature of security threats that are created for Russia.’ This was a stark warning that more strikes would follow.
The war, with Ukraine as the proxy, has already drawn in multiple nations. Over 10,000 North Korean troops are deployed on Russian front lines, with Iran and North Korea providing UAVs as also artillery ammunition and China supporting with provision of dual use technology. Ukraine is backed by the US and Europe with nations providing it with armaments, intelligence, technical support, funds and advisors just behind the battlelines.
The war has created two clear blocks. Russia, China, North Korea and Iran on one side versus the US and NATO. India, alongside many nations of the global south are maintaining neutrality, while insisting that talks are the only solution. The Russian block includes the world’s three most sanctioned nations, Iran, North Korea and Russia. Sanctions by the west have drawn them closer. Breaking this grouping in any near timeframe is unlikely.
All attempts by the west to denude Russia from support have failed. The Russian economy has survived. The launch of the Oreshnik hypersonic missile indicates that Russia has the ability to continue fighting. In a recent decision, Putin offered to cancel all outstanding loans of those who sign up to fight, drawing in more volunteers to the frontlines. While Ukraine is struggling to maintain troops on its frontlines, the arrival of North Koreans has changed the battle landscape for Russia.
The war has crossed 1000 days with no signs of concluding. There are reports that unofficial talks are being undertaken by members of the incoming Trump administration seeking to bring about a ceasefire, soon after his arrival. However, the latest sanction by Biden has complicated their efforts. Biden, on his part, has provided Ukraine with funds and equipment to enable it to continue the war, despite any blockade of supplies by Trump.
Zelensky has been promising victory all through, but the reality is that Ukraine is struggling to maintain force levels as also induct fresh troops. Sanction to employ western weapons is currently limited to the Kursk region, where Russian forces are pushing back at the Ukrainian incursion. Meanwhile a recently conducted Gallup’s survey (August-October 2024) showed that 52% of Ukrainians desire a negotiated end to the war. Most were willing for territorial concessions in exchange for peace. War fatigue has set into the public aware that victory is an illusion. With approaching winters and systematic destruction of power infrastructure, it is likely to another tough winter. The fact remains that views of the population would never be a guiding factor when national leaders think otherwise.
Despite efforts by the US and its allies to expand the conflict, against the will of the Ukrainian population, Russia will seek to avoid it, unless the west forces its hands. It does not desire to expand the war but talks to end the conflict on its terms. For this, it must not be provoked by the US. Thus far, Putin has displayed no intent to do so while signalling he possesses the capability and will not hesitate.
Forthcoming NATO-Ukraine talks are crucial. If they de-escalate their actions, there could be hope for peace. If they escalate, Ukraine would face further destruction. Threat to Europe and expansion of the conflict will only occur if the west gives sanction to Ukraine to target Russian cities with its missiles, which logically they should not.
The author is Major General (Retd)
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