It’s war between UPA and NDA

Amit Kushari,  IAS Retd.
A young man called Shankar sells tea and biscuits in a small makeshift shop at the corner of the road where I live. Whenever I pass by he greets me warmly. Last Sunday when I was returning from my morning walk Shankar came forward and asked me, “Sir, is it true that a poor tea vendor like me is soon going to become the Prime Minister of India?” “Where did you hear this?” I asked. “I heard rumours in the main market when I went there to buy milk. Since I cannot read newspapers, I have to rely on rumours.” “When I told him about BJP’s PM aspirant, Narendra Modi, and how he used to sell tea on the railway platform, Shankar was excited. He asked me, “Sir, if I try very hard can I also become PM?” “Surely you can if you have the merit and determination. You don’t have to be born in a royal family for that.” I said. I had to explain what is BJP because Shankar had not heard about this party, being born and brought up in a non Hindi speaking state like West Bengal, where elections mean a fight between Left Front and Trinamool Congress. He has distantly heard about Congress as President Pranab Mukherjee’s and Indira Gandhi’s party.
The fight between BJP and Congress is basically an unequal fight because NDA is well known only in half of India  i.e. roughly the Hindi heartland plus Maharashtra, Gujrat, Goa, Karnataka, Punjab and Jammu province. If on the map of India one draws a straight line from southern Karnataka to North Bengal, then the area that falls north of this line is the play field of NDA, whereas the areas falling to the south or east of this line are mostly ‘no,no’ for NDA —  inhabited by people who cannot understand Hindi well. I call this straight line the fault line of Mother India. UPA has a big advantage that it is fairly popular on both sides of the fault line, specially among the non- Hindus and the Scheduled caste Hindus . It has to fight only with strong regional parties in the non Hindi states.
In spite of this huge geographical advantage, Congress and UPA appear to be quite desperate and despondent today. They have perhaps believed in opinion polls too much and have gone to the extent of seeking a ban  on opinion polls. Since politicians say exactly the opposite of what they actually believe, when they speak on the public platform rubbishing opinion polls, I can immediately make out that they have actually believed the opinion polls and are pretty scared. There is no reason for them to be so scared — after all in 20% cases we have seen opinion polls going wrong. In 2004 opinion polls predicted a massive win for NDA but ultimately NDA was humiliated badly. Opinion polls predicted a Congress Government in Punjab but in reality Akali/ BJP came to power. But the way Congress is reacting today to the sharp taunting speeches of Shri Modi, it seems Congress has already accepted defeat and they are trying to make reckless allegations against Mr Narendra Modi. This is going to harm the Congress leaders of the Hindi heartland and allies like Samajwadi Party and Bahujan Samaj Party who play around in the Hindi region. Leaders like Chidambaram of Tamil Nadu can somehow get entry in the next Lok Sabha riding on the shoulders of the DMK, but what will happen to Naresh Agarwal of Samajwadi Party,UPA minister, Kapil Sibal of Chandni Chowk, Delhi, or Manish Tiwari of Ludhiana? In North India there is no DMK to save them. They could be swept off their feet by the tidal wave of BJP, Akali or Shiv Sena. The Congress leaders of Bengal, Orissa, Andhra and Tamil Nadu have already been reduced to ciphers by Mamta, Naveen, Jagan Reddy and Jayalalitha.
Now that a full fledged war has broken out between UPA and NDA some bitter exchanges are natural but these should be within normal limits of decency. NDA being in the opposition has nothing much to lose and so they may use harsh words to woo voters, but the leaders of UPA must remember that they have to retain power and should not go down in the eyes of the voters by shouting foul words from the roof top. By finding fault with Narendra Modi for protecting (snooping?) a friend’s daughter using Government funds, UPA  may not gain much electorally because the Indian public generally believes that a friend’s daughter must be protected if the friend has requested for such protection — never mind the Government expenses incurred wrongly. The Indian voters are so used to misuse of Government funds, that nobody is genuinely bothered. In fact Naresh Agarwal’s fantastic statements about tea vendors have actually helped Narendra Modi immensely. Narendra Modi made full use of this statement crying at every speech that UPA was anti poor and was mocking at their poverty. He is telling the huge crowds that gather to hear him that UPA believes that only ‘Shehzadas’ have the right to become PM and not tea vendors like him. Naresh Agarwal has given so much electoral advantage to Narendra Modi that some people are suspecting that he could have taken a good amount of money from BJP to make that stupid statement that a tea vendor cannot be a good Prime Minister.
( The author is former financial Commissioner, J&K)

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