Harsha Kakar
The peaceful conduct of Jammu and Kashmir elections with an enthusiastic voter turnout, reflected changes in the region. There were no repolls, while campaigning was vibrant. All earlier elections were marred by violence, calls for boycott and threats to those who cast their votes. J and K’s chief electoral officer, Pandurang Pole, mentioned, ‘An improvement in the ground situation and no security concerns among the voters are reasons for an increase in turnout. People have understood that for peace and development, ballot is the solution.’ Many who boycotted earlier elections voted enthusiastically.
A Government press release mentioned, ‘there has been a significant increase (23%) in the size of the electorate from 2014. The gender diversification of the electorate was apparent with an increase of 27.90% in female electors. There was a 7% increase in the number of candidates contesting. Women candidates increased from 28 to 43, while independent candidates saw a 26% rise.’
Multiple parties participated including Sheikh Abdul ‘Engineer’ Rashid’s Awami Ittehad Party’s (AIP). Engineer Rashid had won the Lok Sabha seat from Baramulla defeating NC’s Omar Abdullah, while being behind bars. Some politicians complained that his release was a game being played by the BJP to split votes. The reality is that openness in Indian democracy is evident. This is what is irking Pakistan and few in Kashmir.
Pakistan jumped to comment, aware that elections, if smoothly conducted, could be a turning point over their claims for Kashmir. The Hurriyat, funded by Pak through Hawala, is dead and gone. It has no power to call for boycott or push for violence. The public has begun to believe in the power of their vote. After witnessing fairness in the Lok Sabha polls, they are aware that these too will not be rigged, as was the historical norm.
Not a single political party mentioned referendum, dialogue with Pakistan or a free Kashmir. This certifies the new mindset. This change is causing heartaches across the LOC. The NC and PDP did mention restoration of Article 370, while the INC, which teamed up with them, avoided statingit in its manifesto.
Pakistan’s defence minister Khawaja Asif commented in a TV interview that Pakistan’s government and the INC-NC alliance were on the same page on the issue of restoration of Article 370 in J and K.He hoped that the alliance would emerge victorious. These words from across the LOC were met with anger from within.
Omar Abdullah hit back mentioning, ‘What has Pakistan to do with us? We are not part of Pakistan. They should take care of their own country and let us take care of our own.’ The BJP exploited it claiming that the NC-INC alliance is being supported by Pakistan. Aiming harder at debt-ridden Pakistan, Rajnath Singh mentioned, ‘If there had been a better relationship, we would have given more money to Pakistan than what they have asked from the IMF.’
Pakistan’s President, Asif Ali Zardari, in a meeting with residents of POK, condemned J and K elections terming them ‘a part of India’s broader strategy to consolidate its illegal occupation of the region.’ He added, ‘Pakistan greatly values sacrifices made by the Kashmiri people for their rights and would continue to stand in solidarity with them.’ India did not even consider it appropriate to respond. The world is aware of a changed Kashmir, facing dying embers of Pak backed terrorism.
The Dawn, in an editorial, attempted to twist the impact of high voting across the region. It mentioned, ‘Kashmiris are likely stepping out to vote to prevent the BJP from capturing their land and wiping out its unique identity, while a protest vote against the discarding of Article 370, too, cannot be ruled out. It is also true that the polls will hardly be free and fair.’ It added, ‘The Indian approach to Kashmir is divorced from reality.’ The truth is that Pakistan has failed to smell the coffee.
What Pakistan forgets is that India is not akin to them, where POK is controlled by a sham government and the rulers in Islamabad are determined by the whims and fancies of the military leadership. On the contrary, in India, election results are accepted, irrespective of who wins. This was evident in the recently concluded Lok Sabha elections.
Concerns within Pak on J and K elections have reasons. A win or a coalition formed with anti-Pak parties could enhance pressure on New Delhi to rescind the Indus Water Treaty, in case Pak refuses to discuss, notice for renegotiation has already been given to Islamabad. It would make an already bad situation, worse.
Secondly, Pakistan’s narrative on Kashmir being disputed, is already losing ground, despite Shehbaz raising it in his UNGA speech and would lose further ground with the high voter turnout and peaceful conduct of polls.
The Indian threat to retaliate to any terrorist violence during elections was possibly conveyed to Pak by acting US Under Secretary of State, John Bass, and Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexei Overchuk, during their recent visits to Islamabad. The Russian deputy PM also met the Pak army chief. The offer of backing Pak’s entry to BRICS+ (which cannot be done with complete consensus) was a carrot offered. Both visits coincided with the first round of polling. Another reason why violence was missing.
The world was observing J and K elections. Delegates from 15 countries visited the valley during voting. US diplomat, Jorgen Andrews, mentioned, ‘Election process looks very smooth and very professional. Everything is well set-up.’ Fairness in the electoral process would give a boost to Indian democracy. The recently concluded elections signal the end of Pakistan’s claims on Kashmir. They may continue screaming from rooftops, the UN or other forums, but would not be heard.
Realistically, it is more important for Pakistan to regain control of its western provinces which are being rattled by violence. Its complaining in the UNSC of Afghanistan backing the TTP (Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan) as also of the TTP becoming a major global terrorist organization has no takers. Further, it has to prove that it is a democracy by inviting the leader of the largest party to form the government, rather than keeping him behind bars.
Kashmir, for Pakistan is history. The faster it understands, the better it is.
The author is a Major General (Retd)
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