Anil Anand
The seemingly avoidable controversy, raked by Pakistan, in not inviting Jammu and Kashmir Speaker to next month’s Commonwealth Parliamentary Conference to be held In Islamabad, has undermined the fresh endeavours being made to thrash out bilateral issues. Coming just ahead of the National Security Adviser (NSA) level talks between the two countries, the development has thrown a fresh challenge in the sub-continental context.
It seems that Ufa (Russia) meeting between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Pakistan counterpart Nawaz Sharief has not gone well with Pak Army and ISI. When backdoor diplomatic channels had succeeded in making the meeting a reality, it was thought that Mr Sharief has moved forward with some amount of tactical backing from the Army-ISI combine. This was despite his on-ground vulnerable political condition.
The subsequent events have proved that more the ruling dispensation in Pakistan tries to change vis-a-vis India, the Army-ISI nexus hits back more strongly. Perhaps the only exception was the regime of General Pervez Musharraf. Mr Sharief this time around is no different.
None other than the seasoned Pakistani diplomat Sartaj Aziz who, more importantly, is Special Adviser to Prime Minister Nawaz Sharief on Foreign Affairs and National Security, has ruled out the possibility of sending an invite to Jammu and Kashmir Assembly Speaker for the meet. His plea is that the invitation will compromise Islamabad’s position on Kashmir issue.
Mr Aziz’s stand cannot be described as independent of his boss’s approval. So the development becomes important. It also gives a strong impression that Mr Sharief is under tremendous pressure from hawks in Pakistani establishment and extremist elements outside it.
In the previous chapter of a similar Commonwealth Conference held in Pakistan in 2007 no such fuss was created by the host country about J&K’s participation. The question arises as to what has changed this time.
No easy answers are available when it comes to analysing the complexities of diplomatic exercises between the two countries. It is more complex in the context of Pakistan due to lack of clarity about ruling power structure. The overriding influence of the Army-ISI nexus over the democratically elected Government blurs the scene.
The developments related to Commonwealth Conference and Pakistan’s persistent denial mode on Udhampur terror attack which was masterminded by two of its nationals has once again created an air of uncertainty. The hopes of fresh peace efforts making headway, after Ufa meeting, have started fading away, if not evaporated, primarily due to refusal of Pak dispensation to see reason.
The ultimatum by an emergency meeting of the Commonwealth Parliamentary Association, Indian Region of non-participation is a fair step as Islamabad’s move is ill advised on two counts. Firstly, will be life threatening for the Commonwealth Parliamentary Association. Secondly, the plea taken by Pakistan to precipitate the issue at best has a bilateral dimension and has nothing to do with the group of Commonwealth nations as a whole.
The possibility of India not participating without J&K if Pakistan remains adamant in not changing its stance is strong. Or else New Delhi’s suggestion to shift the conference to Dhaka or London can fructify.
In either case all efforts, afresh, at building a mutual trust between India and Pakistan will certainly receive a blow.
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